Monday, July 2, 2018
Today’s slate will be headlined by the likes of Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber, but there are certainly other names to keep your eye on tonight, particularly Luis Castillo. I’ll break down factors that could affect some of the highest value pitchers’ performances to provide insight into which pitcher to start tonight.
High Salary Plays
Corey Kluber, CLE (11-4, 2.54 ERA) @ KC – $11,200
Kluber is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is should perform well today. However, he was shelled in his last start, lasting just 1.2 innings while allowing six earned runs. He was dealing with a rain delay and was out of his normal rhythm. While two of his past three starts have been very uncharacteristic for him, he still has been one of the best pitchers in the league this year, averaging over 42 Fanduel points per start. He had 43 in a start against Kansas City earlier this year. He gets his team deep into games, and generally strikes out a batter per inning. He will be helped by a relatively strong wind blowing in from right field. However, the hot weather will help the ball to carry which could cause him some issues. These factors will likely cancel each other out, meaning that I will stick with his projection of 42.8 points, or 3.82 points/$1000. I don’t foresee another bad performance out of him, and expect a relatively narrow range of outcomes, with a relatively high floor.
Max Scherzer, WAS (10-4, 2.04 ERA) vs BOS – $11,700
Scherzer is a consistently stellar play in DFS. His last start was weak by his standards, going 7 innings with one run allowed but just four strikeouts. In other words, he is almost guaranteed to be a great play, even in a tough matchup with the Red Sox and their offense which has scored the most runs in the league this year. He may struggle to put up too many K’s tonight because of the Red Sox’ good plate discipline, which limits his upside. He will certainly benefit from J.D. Martinez getting the night off tonight. The wind is blowing out to left field at game time, and an extremely hot day will not serve to help Scherzer either. Ultimately, I am predicting 42 points, 3.59/$1000, with a narrow range of outcomes.
Luis Castillo, CIN (5-8, 5.85 ERA) vs CWS – $7100
Castillo is certainly a good option tonight in a great matchup against the White Sox. Despite the high ERA, Castillo has been striking out about one batter per inning and averaging about five innings per outing. Look to see numbers better than this tonight due to the White Sox terrible plate discipline as a team. Although he is not a prime option by any means, he is almost a lock to put up more than 20 points and it would not be shocking to see a total close to 40 in a matchup as good as this. On the season, he has averaged just over 23 points per game. The wind blowing in softly will unlikely affect his game, but the high temperature may help the ball to carry. The humidity in Cincinnati will offset the effects of the heat. Ultimately, I have him scoring 33 points, 4.65 points/$1000, but his floor is much lower than some of the other pitchers on this slate.
Nathan Eovaldi, TB (2-3, 4.08 ERA) @ MIA – $6300
Eovaldi has made six starts this year and has been relatively average with the exception of two great starts, including his last one. Going against Washington last week, he had 9 K’s in 6 innings and allowed no runs. He will look to keep that going in the friendly pitching environment in Miami, against an even more pitcher-friendly lineup. DailyRoto loves Eovaldi in this spot tonight, and has rated him as one of the best values on the slate. The wind blowing in from center field has increased my projection for him. The slightly warm weather will be unfavorable for him tonight. Humidity will aid him in keeping the ball in the ballpark. Ed Hickox will be calling the game tonight, and he has a slightly lower than average strikeout rate, which could affect Eovaldi tonight. I have adjusted his projection to 29.9 points, 4.75 points/$1000. He is expected to produce tonight, and his recent performances have been quite inspiring; I see him as having a relatively narrow distribution of outcomes tonight.
Kyle Gibson, MIN (2-6, 3.48 ER) @ MIL – $7700
Gibson has been truly phenomenal over the past month. His consistency has been very good over this time frame, which makes me very inclined to go with him tonight. Even when he gives up runs, he can often make up for it by pitching deep into the game and racking up strikeouts. In Milwaukee tonight, the dome will be closed so his production will be unaffected. He is projected at 32 points, 4.16 points/$1000, and I am expecting little variance from this number due to his strong and consistent recent performances.