Friday, June 29, 2018

Tonight’s main slate will feature many good pitching options, but there are a couple that stand out. With names like Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Trevor Bauer on the mound, it is worth looking at any factors that could distinguish their performances tonight. Meanwhile, for DK users, there are great options in the $6000 to $8000 range that will pair well with these big names. However, all analysis here will use Fanduel salaries and statistics. Without further ado, here is my analysis for tonight’s slate.

High Salary Plays

Gerrit Cole, HOU (9-1, 2.56 ERA) @ TB – $11,500

Gerrit Cole is DailyRoto’s pick for best value today, and it’s easy to see why. Though he hasn’t had a double-digit strikeout performance since punching out 16 on May 4, he has been between six and nine in each of his nine starts since. His consistent success makes him an extremely safe play, but lately he has not proven to have as high of a ceiling as some of today’s other options. He faced Tampa Bay on June 18 and posted his third-lowest point total of the season, with a still-respectable 33 points. Today in Tampa Bay, he will be unaffected by weather conditions since the game is being played in the dome at Tropicana Field. The umpire for tonight, Vic Carapazza, is extremely favorable for Cole because he has a demonstrably high strikeout rate and low walk rate, which should add significantly to Cole’s point total. My projection for him is 46.8 points, a value of 4.07 points per $1000.

Jacob deGrom, NYM (5-3, 1.69 ERA) @ MIA – $11,700

Jacob deGrom has been scratched from tonight’s start due to personal reasons. Do not start him.

Trevor Bauer, CLE (7-5, 2.44 ERA) @ OAK – $12,000

Bauer is not being viewed as a great value by DailyRoto, but due to his standing in the league he deserves to be in the conversation for use in your lineup each of his appearances. He has been absolutely stellar in each of his last eight starts and there is no reason to believe he won’t be great again tonight. His lowest output in that timeframe was a 41-point performance in which he still struck out 11 in less than six innings. Tonight, count on double digit strikeouts and about seven innings pitched. The wind is blowing out tonight in Oakland, so this will decrease his output slightly. The temperature will not be a factor and there are clear skies tonight. I am projecting 43.9 points for him tonight, 3.66 points/$1000.

Mid-Range Plays

Marcus Stroman, TOR (0-5, 6.80 ERA) vs DET – $6200

Stroman has only made eight starts this year, including just one since returning from a six week break due to shoulder fatigue. He threw five scoreless innings against the Angels in his return, a promising sign after his early season struggles. He is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, but with a plus matchup against the Tigers he will look to go five or six innings. He will likely post about one strikeout per inning and his fantasy output will depend on his effectiveness at keeping runs off the board. DailyRoto loves him tonight, rating him to be among the best value plays on the slate. With the game being played at Rogers Centre, he won’t have to worry about any weather-related issues. I am projecting him at 31.2 points tonight, the best value of the night at 5.03 points/$1000.

Joe Musgrove, PIT (2-3, 4.59 ERA) @ SD – $7200

Musgrove has made six starts this year and has gotten worse and worse since a brilliant debut. This culminated in his last start, a three point performance vs. Arizona. He has simply been unable to keep runs off of the board over his past couple of outings; his peripheral stats have looked by and large the same as in his best performances. This points to some bad situational luck, and he’ll hope to improve in tonight’s game in the friendly pitching environment of Petco Park. DailyRoto loves Musgrove in this spot tonight, and has rated him as one of the best values on the slate. He’ll be hurt by a strong wind blowing out to right field at game time, which has decreased my projection for him. The colder-than-normal weather in San Diego will provide a minimal boost to his game. I have adjusted his projection to 31.4 points, 4.36 points/$1000. While he is expected to produce tonight, his recent performances have scared me towards safer options in the same price range.

Marco Gonzales, SEA (7-5, 4.04 ERA) vs KC – $7300

Gonzales has been roughed up in his last two outings despite still making it at least six innings in both. With his consistently high pitch counts, he can be relied upon to at least get his team deep into the game. He’ll look to keep the ball in the ballpark tonight, which has been one of his biggest flaws of late. In Seattle tonight, the wind will be mild and I am not expecting it to affect his production. Additionally, with the slightly cool temperature, his projection will be raised only slightly. The humidity in Seattle will prevent the ball from traveling quite as far as normal. He is projected at 31.6 points, 4.33 points/$1000. 

Rich Hill, LAD (1-2, 5.30 ERA) vs COL – $7400 

Rich Hill came off the DL two starts ago, and has showcased improved mechanics and more of a strikeout punch since being back. Despite having a rougher game in his last appearance, he is projected to bounce back tonight against Colorado. The wind is blowing out tonight but not very hard; this is likely to decrease his production slightly. The temperature is very mild, so there is no expected difference in his performance due to this. All in all, I am projecting him at 30.5 points, 4.12 points per $1000.

Value Play 

Felix Peña, LAA (0-0, 5.40 ERA) vs PIT – $5800

Felix Peña is making his third start of the season for the injury-ravaged Angels. He posted a respectable 3.51 ERA in AAA this year but averaged just over 3 innings per start with only one start of more than 5 innings. In MLB action, his first two starts have been productive, with 12 strikeouts and four earned runs allowed over nine innings. There will be a weak wind blowing out towards right field today that may have a slight effect on his performance. Additionally, the hot weather will contribute to the ball carrying well in tonight’s game. I am predicting that his point total will be slightly lower than most projections have him at because of these factors. Ultimately, I have him at 28.2 points, 4.86 points/$1000.