Tuesday, June 26, 2018

With the surplus of top pitchers taking the mound tonight, there are plenty of tough decisions to be made. The difference between a good play and a great play could come down to just a couple of small factors, and I’m going to break these down below.

High Salary Plays

Luis Severino, NYY (11-2, 2.24 ERA) @ PHI – $13,100

Despite having the highest salary of all pitchers today, Severino is viewed by DailyRoto as also having the most value which is a testament to how great he has been this year. He has consistently posted relatively high strikeout totals, although he tied his season-low with five in his last outing. With wins in two-thirds of his outings this year and another expected tonight, the biggest determinant of his fantasy output will be his strikeout total. Today in Philadelphia, he will be hurt by a strong wind blowing out to left field, which has decreased his projection by almost a full point. This will be mitigated by the extremely favorable umpire assignment for tonight. My projection for him is 25.3 points, a value of 1.93 points per $1000.

Corey Kluber, CLE (11-3, 2.10 ERA) @ STL – $12,900

Kluber is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is expected to perform well today. His fantasy result is almost always above 20 DK points. His best trait has been consistently low runs allowed totals, and he averages about one strikeout per inning for over seven innings per start. He will be hurt by a strong wind blowing out to center field in addition to the hot weather, which has reduced my projection for him. He will likely be helped by the humidity. I am projecting him at 22.3 points, for a value of 1.73 points per $1000.

Ross Stripling, LAD (6-2, 1.99 ERA) vs CHC – $10,500

Stripling has been fantastic this year, with runs coming at a premium and extremely good control of the strike zone. A mild wind blowing straight out of the ballpark will minimally affect his performance. I have him projected at 19.1 points, 1.82 points/$1000.

Mid-Range Plays

Freddy Peralta, MIL (2-0, 2.30 ERA) vs KC – $7900

Peralta has only made three starts this year, but two of them have been great while the other was terrible. He doesn’t give up many hits, and control is key to his success. His MLB stats this year align with his AAA stats: lots of strikeouts with slight control issues. With the wind blowing in straight towards home plate tonight at about 8 MPH, he stands to benefit greatly. He is also going to be aided by the humid forecast. However, there may be rain at game time and the chance will increase as the game progresses, which makes a delay somewhat likely and could affect his output. Pick him at your own risk, but it appears only rain can stop him as I am projecting him at 19.5 points tonight, the best value of the night at 2.47 points/$1000.

Lance Lynn, MIN (5-5, 4.64 ERA) @ CWS – $7300

Lynn has been incredibly consistent over his past six starts, and that trend looks to continue tonight. While walks have plagued him this year, he is able to avoid the big mistakes and has kept run totals down since his rough start to the season. He’ll be helped by a strong wind blowing in from right field, which has increased his projection. Additionally, the humid weather will likely help him even further. However, there is concern over rain in Chicago tonight and this could potentially affect his start. He will also have to deal with an umpire who calls more balls than most, which will only exacerbate his control issues. I have adjusted his projection to 17.1 points, 2.34 points/$1000.

Jake Junis, KC (5-8, 4.43 ERA) @ MIL – $7100

Junis has proven time and again that he will get his team fairly deep into the game. His last three games have been rough, and he has picked up five consecutive losses. However, this has resulted in a price reduction on DK that has made him a potential steal. He’ll look to keep the ball in the ballpark tonight, which has been one of his biggest flaws of late. In Milwaukee tonight, the stiff wind blowing in from center will help him immensely, as will the humid air. As noted with Peralta, this game is at risk of getting rained out, so be mindful of this when setting and adjusting your lineup. He is projected at 15.8 points, 2.23 points/$1000.

Chad Kuhl, PIT (5-5, 4.56 ERA) @ NYM – $7700

Kuhl had come through with a series of strong performances before getting absolutely battered in his last start. The strong wind blowing out to left field will make it difficult for him to bounce back. Additionally, the umpire is slightly unfavorable for pitchers and could hurt Kuhl tonight. Ultimately, I see these game day factors causing a drop in his projection, putting him at 14 points for tonight, 1.82 points/$1000. He’s a risky bet that I am not willing to take with some much better options on the board at similar prices.

Zack Godley, ARI (8-5, 4.64 ERA) @ MIA – $9200                                                 

The reason that a guy with such a high ERA can be priced so highly is that he has mixed some absolute duds into an otherwise respectable season. Coming off three relatively good outings, he’ll look to keep his hot streak going against a weak Marlins lineup. He is known to have occasional command issues despite not giving up a ton of hits. The umpire assignment should help him with that tonight, as Phil Cuzzi is known to have a strike zone that favors pitchers. With the wind blowing in fairly hard from right field and humidity a factor, I believe he will be helped significantly by the ballpark factors. I am projecting him at 17.8 points, or 1.93 points/$1000.

Value Plays

Steven Matz, NYM (3-5, 3.68 ERA) vs PIT – $6100

If you’re looking for a guy who will give you decent production so that you can spend big on offense, look no further than Steven Matz. While his K:BB ratio is not stellar, the majority of his starts are quality starts as he finds ways to keep runs off the board. However, this may hurt him tonight with a somewhat unfavorable umpire assignment. Despite giving up a season-high five earned runs in his last outing, I’m relatively confident that he’ll bounce back tonight. The strong wind blowing out to left field will take away some of his value, but he still looks to be a good play. Ultimately, I have him scoring 13.3 points, 2.18 points/$1000.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx, TEX (1-1, 4.59 ERA) vs SD – $4600

At such a low price, Bibens-Dirkx could provide a surprising amount of value if you’d prefer to spend your money on offense. His last start was the best of his three so far this year, but he failed to strike out a batter in almost seven innings. He’s unlikely to have a big game, but with a very hard wind at his aid, he could find himself able to have another productive outing. That being said, he’s likely to be hurt by the extremely hot summer day in Arlington. Look for him to put up 11 DK points, a value of 2.39/$1000.