For full access to our team charts and player distributions for NBA, NFL, and MLB DFS, become an Advanced Sports Analytics member here.
Chicago @ Minnesota (O/U 39.5, MIN -11.5)
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (O/U 38, PIT -10.5)
Dallas @ Philadelphia (O/U 39.5, DAL -2.5)
Green Bay @ Detroit (O/U 43, DET -6.5)
Houston @ Indianapolis (O/U 41, IND -3.5)
NY Jets @ New England (O/U 44, NE -15.5)
Washington @ NY Giants (O/U 37.5, WAS -3)
Arizona @ Seattle (O/U 39, SEA -9.5)
Buffalo @ Miami (O/U 42.5, BUF -3)
Carolina @ Atlanta (O/U 45.5, ATL -4)
Cincinnati @ Baltimore (O/U 40, BAL -9.5)
Jacksonville @ Tennessee (O/U 41.5, TEN -3.5)
Kansas City @ Denver (O/U 38, DEN -3.5)
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (O/U 50.5, NO -7)
Oakland @ LA Chargers (O/U 42, LAC -8)
San Francisco @ LA Rams (O/U 44, SF -3)
Russell Wilson ($6,900, 24.25 IP, SEA -9.5) - Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger both have stellar matchups, but I'm concerned that they are almost too good. If both teams get up early (particularly the Patriots, who would clinch home field with a win), they might choose to limit their QBs' exposure to opposing defenses. On the other hand, the Seahawks have a ton to play for - a win an they're in the playoffs. So I expect them to lean heavily on their best players to get them there, and Wilson should be the guy that carries the load. He also has steeply increasing production as the Seahawks' point total rises in the 20-30 point range.
Jameis Winston ($5,800, 21.75 IP, TB +7) - Winston has been on a roll lately, topping 19 fantasy points in three of his last four games (the only game he didn't reach 19 DKP he still managed a modest 17.4 DKP). The Bucs' implied point total and spread isn't great, but Winston has managed to put up these recent numbers in four straight Tampa Bay losses, so I'm not overly concerned about the spread. Joe Flacco, who is a similarly priced option who has also been on a bit of a roll himself, might be an intriguing option, but I feel Winston's (blue) upside far outweighs Flacco's (red), and thus makes for a more intriguing mid-tier QB.
Mitchell Trubisky ($4,400, 14 IP, CHI +11.5) - The matchup is not good, but Trubisky has been pretty solid as of late, putting up over 16 fantasy points in three straight contests, and topping out at over 21 DKP. If he can keep things rolling and rack up some numbers against an uninspired Vikings defense (they are locked in as the NFC's second seed), Trubisky could be a star sleeper in Week 17.
Patrick Mahomes II ($4,700, 17.25 IP, KC +3.5) - Mahomes will get the start for Kansas City, the first of his career, so he's mentioned here purely out of speculation. Sean Mannion ($4.5K) will get a similar sport start for the Rams, but I'm higher on Mahomes almost purely on his ability to scramble. His running ability could allow his fantasy production to play up given his inexperience.
LeSean McCoy ($8,000, 22.75 IP, BUF -3) - McCoy is a high-risk/high-reward play, he's just as likely to score 30 fantasy points as he is to score 12.
But I think Shady worth rolling the dice on this week, and his price point is below what you would usually expect to pay for him.
I am wary of his significant home/road splits, but given the cold weather in the Northeast this weekend, a game in sunny Miami might be a plus for him and the Bills' offense. The Bills have a lot to play for as they chase a Wild Card berth, and the Dolphins, who are one of the worst defenses against running backs to begin with, have already been eliminated. The Bills' implied point total and opening line isn't huge, but Shady would benefit from them topping their implied point total and expected margin of victory, as he has great increasing production as these two metrics increase.
Todd Gurley has already been ruled out for Sunday, and I question how much run Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott will get on Sunday. Of the top-tier RBs this weekend, I think McCoy is the most likely to get a full four quarters of touches.
Carlos Hyde (4,900, 23.5 IP, SF -3) - As has been the theme throughout this primer, team/player motivation is a big consideration in this the final week of the 2017 season. On paper the 49ers have nothing to play for, but I think this offense (led by Jimmy Garoppolo) would really like to finish this season on a strong note against a division opponent, and are carrying a four-game win streak into the final week. Hyde has been getting plenty of touches lately, and with the Rams expected to bench many of their starters, I like Hyde's chances of reaching paydirt this weekend. Hyde also has modestly increasing production in the 20-30 team point range, and although he has flashed 20 DKP upside when the 49ers score in the single digits, he seems to avoid bad games at a higher clip when the Niners top 20 points.
Malcolm Brown ($3,900, 20.5 IP, LAR +3) - Similarly to the QB sleeper section, Brown is a guy who will draw a spot start on Sunday ahead of the resting regular starter. Brown hasn't been outstanding in his limited carries this year, but his 3.9 yards per carry leaves some room for optimism.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400, 18.75 IP, HOU +3.5) - Hopkins has been about as consistent as they come in 2017, and I think in Week 17, usage security is the name of the game. There is some evidence that might suggest that Hopkins is held out of Sunday's contest, but if he is active he should be his usual productive self, as he tends to get his looks regardless of game and quarterback factors.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,300, 24.25 IP, PIT -10.5) - With Antonio Brown sidelined, Smith-Schuster should assume the WR1 role for a Steelers' offense that has a great matchup against the 0-15 Cleveland Browns, which should boost his production, as a modest negative correlation (-0.21) between Pittsburgh's WR1 and WR2 would suggest that Brown's past production would frequently come as a substitute for Smith-Schuster (or another WR2). With Brown out of the picture this week, I expect Smith-Schuster's usage to expand in a big way.
The Browns' actually have a pretty good defense against wide receivers (9th fewest points allowed), but the Pittsburgh receiving corp is pretty consistent against the quality of the opposition, as they have a pretty flat WR/TE slope.
A.J. Green ($6,300, 15.25 IP, CIN +9.5) - Green's upside is too good and his price is too low to not acknowledge him as a possible value play this weekend.
At $6.3K he is well below his normal price point.
He does draw a tough matchup against a talented and motivated Baltimore defense. But it doesn't take a huge Bengals' point total for Green to go off, he's put up 30+ DKP when the Bengals have scored as few as 20 team points.
Will Fuller V ($4,300, 18.75 IP, HOU +3.5) - If Hopkins (see stud section) isn't able to go, Fuller's upside climbs in a huge way. He hasn't really been able to get on track since returning from injury to a Deshaun Watson-less Texans offense. But if Hopkins is unable to go, Fuller would assume WR1 duties of an offense that doesn't have a ton of other options (meaning he should get a ton of looks) going up against a less-than-stellar Indianapolis secondary.
Rob Gronkowski ($7,000, 29.75 IP, NE -15.5) - Gronkowski makes for a strong independent play this week, and I think I might recommend him without Brady, as Tom hasn't been super sharp lately, failing to top 17 DKP in his past four contests. Gronkowski figures to benefit from a high New England implied point total and spread (although his increase in production relative to increasing margin of victory is somewhat inconsistent).
If you're going to spend big at tight end, Gronk is really the only option that makes sense to me - Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz will both be working with backup quarterbacks.
Antonio Gates ($4,200, 25 IP, LAC -8) - With Hunter Henry out, Gates shined last week, catching 6 of 8 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders have trouble stopping tight ends, allowing the third most points to opposing tight ends, and the Chargers are expected up a pretty decent point total, which should help Gates' upside.
Vance McDonald ($2,700, 24.24 IP, PIT -10.5) - The Antonio Brown injury should also impact the Steelers' tight end corp, which features two relevant tight ends in McDonald and Jesse James ($4K). On account of McDonald's more competitive price, and James low usage last week (no receptions on a single target), I'm higher on McDonald's value upside. In his last two games (Weeks 16 and 14, with an absence due to injury in between), McDonald has caught four passes on five and six targets, for 52 yards in each game. A touchdown coupled with similar reception/yardage would spell huge value for a near-minimum-priced McDonald.
Baltimore Ravens ($3,800, CIN 15.25 IP, BAL -9.5) - The Ravens have been one of the top defenses all year, and I think of the top-tier defenses they are likely to be the most motivated to play four full quarters of football given their playoff situation.
Seattle Seahawks ($3,400, ARI 14.75 IP, SEA -9.5) - Pundits around the league were ready to declare the Legion of Boom dead. Well the Seattle defense showed up last week against Dallas, and I like their chances to do the same against a listless Arizona offense as they make a final push for the playoffs on their home field.
Dallas Cowboys ($2,300, PHI 18.5 IP, DAL -2.5) - The Cowboys haven't been a standout D/ST this year, but they haven't been awful. The Eagles are already down their star QB Carson Wentz, and with a first round bye and homefield advantage secured, they don't have a ton to play for, which should give the Cowboys a shot at good sleeper value.