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Atlanta @ New Orleans (O/U 52.5, NO -5.5)
Buffalo @ New England (O/U 47.5, NE -11.5)
Cleveland @ Chicago (O/U 38, CHI -6.5)
Denver @ Washington (O/U 40.5, WAS -3.5)
Detroit @ Cincinnati (O/U 44, DET -3)
LA Chargers @ NY Jets (O/U 42.5, LAC -6.5)
LA Rams @ Tennessee (O/U 47, LAR -6.5)
Miami @ Kansas City (O/U 43, KC -10)
Tampa Bay @ Carolina (O/U 46.5, CAR -10)
Jacksonville @ San Francisco (O/U 42, JAC -4)
NY Giants @ Arizona (O/U 40, ARI -3.5)
Seattle @ Dallas (O/U 47, DAL -4.5)
Cam Newton ($6,800, 28.25 IP, CAR -10) - I'm not so high on Brady this week, as he just hasn't been all that good as of late (the same could be said for Russell Wilson) and the weather could be dicey in Foxboro this weekend. Enter Cam Newton, who for starters possesses a really nice high-upside fantasy point distribution.
The Panthers also have a good implied point total this week, which is great new for Newton whose production increases so consistently with Panthers' point total.
On top of that, Newton and the Panthers' receiving corp have great correlation, lending themselves to what I think could be a formidable QB-WR-TE stack (although I am a little wary of Devin Funchess' lack of success last week and questionable status). Another option could be a Newton-McCaffrey stack.
And lastly, all Panthers positional units have generally increasing production against weaker defenses. Which should be a plus this week as the Bucaneers rank towards the top of the league in fantasy points allowed to most positions (although the do allow the 9th fewest points to opposing tight ends).
Phillip Rivers ($6,400, 24.5 IP, LAC -6.5) - Rivers doesn't have huge 30-point upside, but he's actually pretty good at sitting in the low-20s. His price is down due to a dud last week, and at $6.4K, I'd say adequately priced.
He has pretty good increasing production with the Chargers' point total and margin of victory, and his curves would suggest that if the game holds true to form from a Chargers' point total and margin of victory standpoint Rivers would be in line to top 20 DKP yet again.
Andy Dalton ($4,800, 20.5 IP, CIN +3) - I believe this is the first time I've called Andy Dalton's number this year, but I don't think he's a bad low-budget QB option this weekend. He has been awful over the past two weeks, but he played a really tough Minnesota defense in Minneapolis last week and an underatedly good Chicago defense the week before. Prior to that he had put up four consecutive 16+ DKP performances. He draws a weaker Detroit defense this week, which usually means good things for his production.
Dalton's distribution projects him as a consistent quarterback with equal risk and upside.
If the Bengals can find a way to top their 20.5 implied point total, Dalton could reach some of that upside, as he has extremely consistent increasing production with the Bengals' point total.
Lastly, his price is just really good this week compared to where he is usually priced, probably in response to his duds over the last two weeks.
Mark Ingram ($8,100, 29 IP, NO -5.5)/Alvin Kamara ($8,100) - I'm sure people will be high on Gurley this week, and I'm not saying I think Gurley will be bad this week (although the Titans do have a pretty strong run defense). But I just think it is yet again another ideal matchup for the Kamara/Ingram stack. And even after putting up huge numbers last week, they are somehow $400 cheaper this week. As we've discussed in the past, these guys have great correlation, and seem to do well as a pair. They generally perform well as the Saints' point total rises, and Ingram in particular takes advantage of Saints' wins.
Christian McCaffrey ($6,400, 28.25 IP, CAR -10) - McCaffrey doesn't sport the best relationship between fantasy production and team success, but he does flex high-20s DKP potential.
I don't think McCaffrey is the strongest independent play, but he could be a good mid-tier option to pair with Cam Newton, as the Panthers' RB1 and QB1 have a nice +0.37 correlation.
Wayne Gallman ($3,900, 18.25 IP, NYG +3.5) - I like Gallman again this week, as he seems have a firm hold on the RB1 spot in New York. Orleans Darkwa did manage to pick up a rushing touchdown for the G-Men last weekend, but I think Gallman has bee the better runner and has been a very effective pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Keenan Allen ($7,700, 24.5 IP, LAC -6.5) - I admittedly don't love any of the top-priced WR, including Allen to some extent. While he does have nice upside, his production relative the Chargers' point total and margin of victory/defeat is extremely erratic. He makes for an ok at best stack with Phillip Rivers, as the Chargers QB1-WR1 correlation of +0.21 leaves a lot to be desired from a QB1-WR1 stack. But his big-game potential is hard to deny, so if you have money to spend on a WR, consider Allen, because I think Julio Jones (who has had 2.5 good games this year) as the most expensive receiver at $7.9K is absurd.
A.J. Green ($6,700, 20.5 IP, CIN +3.5) - A.J. Green is always a bit of a crapshoot, but the upside is undeniable at only $6.7K.
I think he's worth buying into for a few lineups, particularly in a stack with Andy Dalton. They are a very underpriced stack in my opinion, and have a not-so-bad matchup against the Detroit Lions.
Devin Funcess ($6,600, 28.5 IP, CAR -10) - If you aren't going with a Newton-McCaffrey stack, consider a Newton-Funchess-Olsen stack. Funchess is a bit TD-dependent, which does concern me a little bit. But the Panters' QB1 and WR1 have good correlation, as to does their WR1-TE1 pair.
Keelan Cole ($4,700, 23 IP, JAC -4) - At $4.7K, he's a little to pricey to be considered a sleeper. But I don't think last week was a flash in the pan for Cole. He's been getting a lot of targets, has been catching them with good efficiency and has proven himself as a terrific downfield threat. And with Marqise Lee already ruled out Cole figures to maintain high usage against a less-than-stellar San Francisco secondary.
DeVante Parker ($4,200, 16.5 IP, MIA +10)/Kenny Stills ($4,000) - Parker is listed as questionable after being a full participant in practice earlier today. If he goes, I like his sleeper value, as his targets have been trending back up, including a season-high 12 (resulting in 6 catchers) last weekend. However, if Parker can't go, I like Stills sleeper upside, as he's shown a penchant for big games in the past, totaling 26.5 and 34.0 DKP on separate occasions. The Chiefs have given up the most fantasy points to opposing receivers of any defense.
Rob Gronkowski ($7,400, 29.5 IP, NE -11.5) - If you're playing Brady at QB, Gronkowski is kind of a must-stack at TE. He's been really great as of late, drawing a ton of targets, catching them at a high efficiency, and also gaining big yardage on said catches.
Greg Olsen ($5,200, 28.25 IP, CAR -10) - Olsen finally got back on the board after missing a big chunk of the season due to injury. The jump to $5.2K is a big one, but I think Olsen makes for the ideal stacking candidate if you're going with Cam Newton at QB.
Cameron Brate ($3,300, 18.25 IP, TB +10) - Brate's production has dropped off significantly in unison with the uptick of rookie TE O.J. Howard's production. But prior to the emergence of Howard, Brate was one of the more consistent tight ends in the league. With Howard now on IR for the rest of the year, Brate could re-enter the conversation of a strong mid-tier tight end.
Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,900, SF 19 IP, JAC -6.5) - The Jaguars have been really consistently lately, and even though Garoppolo has been a marked improvement for the 49ers' offense, I think the Jaguars' D/ST will shut them down.
Detroit Lions ($2,900, CIN 20.5 IP, DET -3) - The Lions are coming off back to back double-digit efforts (12.0 and 13.0), and the Bengals aren't a particularly scary offense.
None - There aren't any low-cost D/STs that jump out to me as having great sleeper potential.