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Arizona @ Washington (O/U 42, WAS -4)
Baltimore @ Cleveland (O/U 40.5, BAL -7)
Cincinnati @ Minnesota (O/U 42, MIN -11)
Green Bay @ Carolina (O/U 47, CAR -2.5)
Houston @ Jacksonville (O/U 38.5, JAC -11.5)
Miami @ Buffalo (O/U 39, BUF -3.5)
NY Jets @ New Orleans (O/U 47.5, NO -16)
Philadelphia @ NY Giants (O/U 40, PHI -7.5)
LA Rams @ Seattle (O/U 47, SEA -2.5)
Pittsburgh @ New England (O/U 54, NE -3)
Tennessee @ San Francisco (O/U 44.5, SF -1)
Russell Wilson ($7,300, 24.75 IP, SEA -2.5) - Brady and the Patriots figure to be in a shootout with Pittsburgh this weekend, but I think Wilson has superior upside to Brady, and is hardly a riskier play.
Wilson and the Seahwaks' implied point total isn't quite as high as that of Brady and the Patriots (28.5 IP), but in general, we should expect Wilson to be as productive at 24.75 points as we should expect Brady to by at 28.5 points.
Additionally, I think the Seahawks have better correlation (and more predictable correlates) than the Patriots.
With Chris Hogan likely to return this week, it isn't completely clear who the top WR to target in New England is, while we know that Doug Baldwin is the clear likely WR1 in Seattle and Paul Richardson the most likely WR2 (although Tyler Lockett was very good last weekend). Lastly, the Seahawks are at home this week, where Wilson is averaging more than 5 fantasy points higher than he is on the road.
Case Keenum ($6,100, 26.5 IP, MIN -11) - for a sub-$7K option, Keenum flashes decent 30+ DKP potential.
He also has a great matchup, where the Vikings have one of their higher implied point totals all year. And Keenum does considerably (and consistently) better as the Vikings' point total and margin of victory grows.
The Vikings also have good QB-WR-WR correlation, which would lend itself to a Keenum-Theilen-Diggs stack.
None - There aren't any cheap QB options that I like this week. Blake Bortles is usually a prime candidate for this section, but I usually prefer him when he's closer to $5K. DeShone Kizer had a nice week last week, but I think Baltimore will be a tough matchup for him. Flacco has a nice matchup, but he has such limited upside, it feels like his ceiling is only 3x value, and it isn't all that likely that he even achieves that.
Alvin Kamara ($8,600, 31.75 IP, NO -16)/Mark Ingram ($8,200) - I absolutely love this stack this weekend. We've talked about the great RB-RB correlation of the Saints, and they have a great matchup this weekend. Both Ingram (blue) and Kamara (red) have increasing production relative the Saints' point total, which figures to be huge this weekend.
Ingram has increasing production relative the Saints' margin of victory, Kamara is a little more variable, with no real trend established.
Le'Veon Bell ($9,300, 25.5 IP, PIT +3) - But a Saints' RB stack is obviously a pricey one. If you're looking for elite running back production and don't want to spend $16.8K on Kamara/Ingram, Le'Veon Bell has also been a stud lately, and has a good (maybe not great) matchup. Bell has modest increasing production with team point total, but what does give me some reservations about him is that he doesn't perform well in Steelers' losses, or even some narrow victories.
But I am optimistic on Bell because he has been such a huge factor in the Steelers' passing game, giving him multiple avenues for producing big numbers, a luxury that few backs have.
Alex Collins ($5,000, 23.75 IP, BAL -7) - I'm not super high on any of the New England running backs (who figure to be trendy picks, particularly Rex Burkhead), as there is too much uncertainty in which one will be the feature back, and if the top RB will even be that productive. Instead, Alex Collins has scored 5 touchdowns in the past 4 weeks, has multiple receptions in each of those games, and is coming of a big 120-yard effort last week. Oh, and he's also going up against the Cleveland Browns. I'm shocked to see him available for only $5K.
Wayne Gallman ($3,900, 16.25 iP, NYG +7.5) - Gallman outcarried fellow backfield mate Orleans Darkwa last week, and was far more effective. Gallmans also hauled in 7 catches (on 9 targets) for 40 yards. We haven't heard from Gallman in awhile, but if he can secure the lead role this weekend, he could be in line for decent numbers.
Antonio Brown ($9,100, 25.5 IP, PIT +3) - If Le'Veon Bell is on a hot streak, I don't know an adjective to describe the type of run that Antonio Brown has been on the past four weeks. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers' stalwart wideout is averaging nearly 38 fantasy points per game, topping 40 twice, collecting 100+ yards each game, and scoring no fewer than 27 DKP. His production has no real relation to the success of the Steelers.
And he doesn't correlate particularly well with Roethlisberger and negatively correlates with the Steelers' RB1, so he makes for a pretty strong independent play, where you might be better off stacking the Seattle or New England passing game.
Doug Baldwin + Paul Richardson ($11,300, 24.75 IP, SEA -2.5) - Speaking of stacking passing attacks. We've talked about Seattle's QB-WR-WR correlation before, and I think it is better and more predictable than that of New England. Baldwin and Richardson are also cheaper options than Gronkowski + Hogan and/or Cooks, which could allow you to add a guy like Antonio Brown and/or the Saints' RB stack. Baldwin has great increasing production with rising point totals, Richardson not so much.
But they both are pretty productive in close games, with figures to be the case on Sunday with the Seahawks only as 2.5-point favorites.
Tyler Lockett is a cheaper option that could be utilized as a substitute for either Baldwin or Richardson (Richardson more so than Baldwin). However I don't think a Seattle 3-WR stack makes a whole lot of sense here.
Keelan Cole ($3,700, 25 IP, JAC -11.5) - There isn't really a whole lot of data to back up this sleeper pick (there rarely is with sleepers). Cole has caught touchdowns in back-to-back games, and has proven to be a viable downfield threat. With both Marquise Lee and Allen Hurns listed as questionable and a matchup against a porous Texans' defense, Cole has some nice upside and could be a steal if he finds a way to get behind the Texans' secondary for a long score.
Zach Ertz ($6,000, 23.75 IP, PHI -7.5) - If you're playing Brady at QB, Gronkowski is the obvious play here. However, if you're going with a different QB-receiver stack and looking for an independent play at TE, Ertz could be a nice option. His decreased price is obviously a reflection of expectations minus Carson Wentz. However, I don't think Nick Foles is an incompetent backup, and I think Ertz should lose little value.
Greg Olsen ($4,000, 24.75 IP, CAR -2.5) - Olsen is a purely speculative pick. He is recently back from injury, and while he saw plenty of snaps last week, he didn't see many balls thrown his way (exactly one). But we know what Olsen is capable of, he has been one of the most productive fantasy tight ends over the past few years. If he can find a way to get going he could be a good value this week.
Charles Clay ($3,000, 21.25 IP, BUF -3.5) - Clay hasn't been super productive since returning from injury, but it has primarily been a function of his inability to find the endzone. He's been getting a decent amount of looks, and catching those looks at a pretty good efficiency. If he can find a way to convert one for a touchdown, he could reach as much as 5x value.
Baltimore Ravens ($3,800, CLE 16.75 IP, BAL -7) - If we ignore last weekend's shootout against Pittsburgh, the Ravens' defense has been solid as of late. I also think DeShone Kizer will make more mistakes than T.J. Yates will against the Jaguars.
Tennessee Titans ($3,000, 22.75 IP, TEN +1) - The Titans' defense has been pretty stout as of late, totaling double-digit DKP in three consecutive weeks.
None - There isn't any deep D/ST that I'm particularly intrigued by this weekend.