Spreads and Over/Unders as of Thursday night
Denver @ Miami (O/U 39.5, DEN -1.5)
Detroit @ Baltimore (O/U 43, BAL -2.5)
Houston @ Tennesse (O/U 43.5, TEN -7)
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (O/U 41, JAC -9.5)
Kansas City @ NY Jets (O/U 44, KC -3)
Minnesota @ Atlanta (O/U 47, ATL -3)
New England @ Buffalo (O/U 48.5, NE -8.5)
San Francisco @ Chicago (O/U 41, CHI -3)
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (O/U 45, GB -2.5)
Cleveland @ LA Chargers (O/U 43.5, LAC -13.5)
Carolina @ New Orleans (O/U 48, NO -4.5)
LA Rams @ Arizona (O/U 44.5, LAR -7)
NY Giantas @ Oakland (O/U 42, OAK -8.5)
Tom Brady ($7,800, 28.5 IP, NE -8.5) - Phillip Rivers figures to be a trendy pick, as he is coming off a huge Thanksgiving performance and draws a matchup with the lowly Browns. But I'm not so high on Rivers. He lacks the upside that Brady possesses for only $800 more, and his price is so much higher than his norm, while Brady is priced right about his norm.
Additionally, Rivers doesn't really take advantage of weak defenses the way you would hope, so I'm not fully buying into Cleveland as this incredible matchup for Rivers.
And lastly, the Chargers offense lacks great correlation (see below), which the Patriots' offense has.
Jameis Winston ($5,600, 21.25 IP, TB +2.5) - Winston is coming off of a 3-game absence due to an injured shoulder. His price point is low compared to what we're used to seeing Winston at.
The Bucs' implied point total isn't spectacular, but the Packers' defense has allowed the third most points to opposing quarterbacks and a tight game figures to benefit Winston who is at his best when games are close.
Blaine Gabbert ($4,700, 18.75 IP, ARI +7) - Gabbert is a near-min priced QB that has secured his team's Week 13 start. He's been turnover prone, but has still put up good fantasy numbers, averaging over 20 DKP in his two starts the past two weeks. He figures to get plenty of pass attempts on Sunday, as the Cardinals are a touchdown underdog against the potent Rams offense.
Leonard Fournette ($7,800, 25.25 IP, JAC -9.5) - I'm out on Kamara/Ingram this week. Kamara's price has ballooned too much, the Panthers have the second best defense against opposing running backs, and the Saints' implied point total is relatively low (for them) this weekend. Fournette appears to be fully healthy for the first time in awhile, the Jags a have a relatively high (for them) implied point total this week, and the Colts are in the bottom third of the league in terms of limiting opposing running backs.
Jamaal Williams ($4,700) OR Aaron Jones ($4,500, 23.75 IP, GB -2.5) - Ty Montgomery is listed as doubtful for Sunday, so we'll assume one of these two guys will get the start. Jones is listed as questionable, but if he plays, he's the guy of this duo to own in my opinion. However, if Jones sits again, Williams is worth a play at $4.7K. Green Bay's offense finally showed some life last weekend, and I think these guys are in good spots against Tampa and as 2.5-point favorites.
Frank Gore ($3,800, 15.75 IP, IND +9.5) - The implied point total and the spread...yikes. But if Indianapolis can somehow shock the oddsmakers, Gore could have decent value. His price is so low that anything in double digits would feel like a win for Gore owners. And if he finds a way to sneak into the endzone that would be huge. Jacksonville actually gives up a lot of points to opposing running backs, and Colts' RBs usually take advantage of defenses that are weak against the run.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,300, 18.25 IP, HOU +7) - If you're playing Brady, you're obviously going to stack him with Cooks and Gronk. But if you're looking for a solid independent play, I like Hopkins. He hasn't really dipped much in terms of production with Tom Savage at QB, and I'm not concerned about the Texans as 7-point underdogs, as Hopkins has had some of his better games in Texans' losses.
The Titans are also in the bottom third of the league in terms of limiting opposing WRs, and as you can see Texans' receivers tend to take advantage of weaker secondaries.
Stafon Diggs ($6,200, 22.25 IP, MIN +3) - Diggs hasn't really been at his best since returning from injury, but early in the season he was a huge receiving threat. His price has dropped accordingly, and I think he could be a solid buy low option.
Josh Gordon ($4,100, 15 IP, CLE +13.5) - Gordon will take the field for the first time since 2014. I'm interested to see where he is at, because when he is in full gear there are few receivers with more upside in Gordon (at least that was the case three years ago).
Rob Gronkowski ($7,300, 28.5 IP, NE -8.5) - You know the drill by now, this isn't New England's greatest implied point total, but the correlation between Brady and Gronk and the Patriots' top wide receiver is too good to pass up.
Hunter Henry ($4,700, 28.5 IP, LAC -13.5) - Henry is coming off a big week last week, and although Keenan Allen will probably be the most frequently stacked player with Rivers, the Chargers' TE1 actually has better correlation with Rivers than their WR1.
Henry also generally does better as the team's point total increases.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,200, 18.75 IP, ARI +7) - Until he stops catching touchdowns, consider Seals-Jones a solid sleeper play, even at $3.2K.
Los Angeles Chargers ($4,000, CLE 15 IP, LAC -13.5) - The Jaguars' D/ST is just priced so high this week, and while they do have a great matchup, there is just too much variability in defenses to warrant spending $4.5K in my opinion. The Chargers are a slightly cheaper option with just as good of a matchup.
Baltimore Ravens ($3,100, DET 20.25 IP, BAL -2.5) - The Ravens are one of the better fantasy defenses in the league, and although they are going up against a capable Detroit offense, I don't think Detroit is such a high-octane offense that you can't start a D/ST against them.
New Orleans Saints ($2,800, CAR 21.75 IP, NO -4.5) - The Saints aren't a bad defense, they're not great, but they do have some upside. They get after the quarterback pretty consistently, if they can find a way to force a few turnovers on Sunday they could be high value.