Spreads and Over/Unders as of Wednesday night

Chicago @ Cincinnati (O/U 38.5, CIN -6)
Dallas @ NY Giants (O/U 41.5, DAL -4)
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay @ Cleveland (O/U 40.5, GB -3)
Indianapolis @ Buffalo
Minnesota @ Carolina (O/U 41, MIN -3)
Oakland @ Kansas City (O/U 47.5, KC -4)
San Francisco @ Houston (O/U 43.5, HOU -2.5)
NY Jets @ Denver (O/U 41.5, EVEN)
Tennessee @ Arizona (O/U 44, TEN -3)
Washington @ LA Chargers (O/U 46, LAC -6)
Philadelphia @ LA Rams (O/U 48, LAR -2.5)
Seattle @ Jacksonville (O/U 39.5, JAC -2.5)


Jared Goff ($6,500, 25.25 IP, LAR -2.5) - There are really no teams with huge implied point totals this week, which will make for an interesting week, with probably a lot of variation in lineups.  Additionally, with guys like Brady, Brees, Ryan, and Roethlisberger appearing in primetime games, the quarterback options for the main slate are limited.  I really like Goff's (and the Rams' offense) upside this week.  He's got ideal increasing production with team point total and margin of victory, and the Rams are a super stackable offense. 

Rivers and Wentz (blue and red) have higher floors than Goff (green), but Goff has just as much upside as Wentz and more upside than Rivers.

Russell Wilson ($6,200, 18.5 IP, SEA +2.5) - It is admittedly not a great matchup for Wilson.  He is much better when the Seahawks achieve a high point total, and he does tend to do worse against good defenses (the Jaguars allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks).  But at $6.2K, Wilson is drastically underpriced.

At this price point, reaching a modest 20 DKP (which is more or less his median production level) would make Wilson a good value.

It is definitely a tough matchup for Russ, and I think it's unlikely he has a huge game, but he only needs to have an average game to reach 3x value.

Deshone Kizer ($4,900, 18.75 IP, CLE +3) - Kizer has been decent the past couple weeks, averaging nearly 18 DKP per game, and doing so on the road against Cincinnati and the Chargers, two far better defenses than the Packers' defense he'll be facing Sunday in Cleveland.  And the addition of Josh Gordon should also help Kizer's game in a big way moving forward.

Running Back

Todd Gurley II ($8,100, 25.25 IP, LAR -2.5) - I don't think a Rams' QB-RB-WR stack is out of the question.  This team gets great QB-RB1 (+0.58) and RB1-WR1 (+0.43) correlation.  Gurley is also ideal for this predicted high-scoring game (relative to the other implied point totals for the week).

And his upside is also maximized when the Rams are on the winning side of things, which would appear to be more likely than not given their line of -2.5.

Alfred Morris ($5,500, 22.75 IP, DAL -4) - Last week we finally saw Morris explode with Ezekiel Elliott out.  The Dallas feature back put up 127 yards on the ground and scored a touchdown, after struggling mightily in his first three starts of the season.  The big difference between last week and the previous three starts: Dallas was winning.  As 4-point favorites, Dallas stands a good chance to win again this week, and thus Morris is an intriguing play at $5.5K.

Andre Ellington ($3,600, 23 IP, HOU -2.5) - Ellington has a pretty firm grasp on the Texans' RB2 role, almost completely because of his pass-catching ability out of the backfield.  He caught 5 of 6 targets last week for 56 yards, I like the upside that comes with his superior pass-catching ability, as he could find a way to sneak his way into the endzone and deliver big value.  And his floor feels pretty high for a near minimum-price guy, as it would only take a few catches for him to avoid being a complete dud.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green ($7,300, 22.25 IP, CIN -6) - He's one of the ultimate hot-and-cold receivers, but I like his chances to heat up this weekend.  If the Bengals can get to 20 points and win or lose by a narrow margin, he could easily reach 25 DKP.

Doug Baldwin ($5,400, 18.5 IP, SEA +2.5) - See Russell Wilson above.  Jacksonville has a stout defense, but this is a high-upside stack (+0.81 QB-WR1 correlation), that is at a bargain price this week.  $5.4K is insanely low for Baldwin.

Josh Reynolds ($3,400, 22.25 IP, LAR -2.5) - He's drawn 6 targets in back-to-back weeks.  Cooper Kupp is the guy worth targeting for a Rams' QB-RB-WR stack, but if you want to extend it to a QB-RB-WR-WR stack, Reynolds could be a good low-budget option.

Tight End

Travis Kelce ($7,400, 25.75 IP, KC -4) - He's been that much better than the rest of the tight end field.  The Chiefs have the highest implied point total of the week and go up against a Raiders defense that is in the bottom quarter of the league in terms of limiting opposing tight ends' fantasy production.

David Njoku ($3,000, 18.75 IP, CLE +3) - He's seen a good amount of targets over the last seven weeks, although he's only been efficient in the past two.  But if he can keep up his target numbers and continue to haul them in at an elevated rate, Njoku makes for a nice stacking option if you're going to roll with Kizer as a bargain QB.  This would free up a ton of salary for running backs and wide receivers.

Trey Burton ($2,900, 22.75 IP, PHI +2.5) - Burton's sleeper value is almost completely dependent upon the health of starting TE Zach Ertz.  Burton caught 4 of 7 targets last week after Ertz left with a concussion.  If Ertz is held out of Sunday's contest, I like Burton's upside for less than $3K.  However if Ertz plays, I don't think you can gamble on Burton getting enough snaps to generate any meaningful value.


Los Angeles Chargers ($3,600, WAS 20 IP, LAC -6) - The Chargers' D/ST is averaging 15 DKP over the past two weeks, reaching double digits in all three games.  They host a Washington team that just allowed 19 DKP to the Cowboys' D/ST.

Dallas Cowboys ($2,900, NYG 18.75 IP, DAL -4) -
Unfamiliar quarterback with an interim head coach, sounds like a recipe for success for a Dallas defense that is coming off a big game against Washington.

Chicago Bears ($2,500, CIN 22.25 IP, CHI +6) - The Bears have scored 4 D/ST touchdowns on the season and do a reasonably good job of getting after the quarterback.  Their biggest flaw is that they give up a lot of points, but maybe Cincinnati throws up a stinker.