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Spreads and Over/Unders as of Thursday night
Atlanta @ Carolina (O/U 43.5, EVEN)
Baltimore @ Tennessee (O/U 43, TEN -3.5)
Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (O/U 39.5, JAC -5)
Denver @ Philadelphia (O/U 43.5, PHI -8)
Indianapolis @ Houston (O/U 46, HOU -7)
LA Rams @ NY Giants (O/U 42, LAR -3.5)
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (O/U 50.5, NO -6.5)
Arizona @ San Francisco (O/U 39, ARI -2.5)
Washington @ Seattle (O/U 45, SEA -7)
Kansas City @ Dallas (O/U 51.5, EVEN)
Drew Brees ($7,000, 28.5 IP, NO -6.5) - For the second week in a row, DFS players will have to adjust to life without yet another elite quarterback due to injury - Houston's Deshaun Watson. And again, top QBs like Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are either not player or aren't featured in the main slate. I think Drew Brees is the next best option. He is at a good price, and has one of the more favorable matchups of the week in an expected high-scoring game and against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the 5th most points to opposing QBs.
Carson Wentz ($6,100, 25.75 IP, PHI -8) - Carson Wentz is the cheapest he has been since Week 3, and although he draws a tough matchup against the Broncos, the Eagles implied point total and spread is rather favorable. Wentz has a bit of a weird relationship between his fantasy production and the Eagles points, but if we exclude the game in which Wentz put up nearly 30 fantasy points against only 20 Eagles' points, he does show good increasing production in the 25+ Eagles' points range, which doesn't seem like an impossible outcome.
And as the Eagles margin of victory grows, expect Wentz' production to do the same.
Tom Savage ($4,600, 26.5 IP, HOU -7) -Tom Savage was awful in the first half of Week 1. But you won't find a cheaper starting QB than Savage this week, and he has a soft matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. Given his matchup and low price, Savage wouldn't need a huge game to have good value, and seems like he could even reach 4x value if the Colts defense is really as bad as we think they are.
Leonard Fournette ($8,400, 22.25 IP, JAC -5) - We don't have a ton of data on Fournette, and the data we do have hasn't established a very consistent pattern. But excluding last week's missed game, Fournette has topped 24 fantasy points in three consecutive weeks, getting more than 20 carries and a touchdown each week. With the Jags as five point favorites, I expect another big and high-carry game for Fournette.
Adrian Peterson ($5,600, 20.75 IP, ARI -2.5) - Peterson was awful last week, but you're rarely going to see a productive running back come out of a 33-point loss. The Cardinals match up against the winless 49ers, and figure to be pretty good bets to come away with a victory, which should translate to more carries for AP.
T.J Yeldon ($4,500, 22.25 IP, JAC -5) - The only scenario I can envision where Yeldon and Fournette do well is a game where Fournette goes crazy early, the Jaguars jump out to a huge lead, and Yeldon closes. But, if you're looking for a Fournette fade, Yeldon is an intriguing option. He was great last week in Fournette's absence, and if the Jaguars decide to distribute carries more evenly in an attempt to protect Fournette's previous injury I could see Yeldon sneaking in and having a productive day. Also, if Fournette re-aggravates his injury, Yeldon could play nicely.
Michael Thomas ($7,200, 28.5 IP, NO -6.5) - I don't think I've had a good read on Michael Thomas once this year. But I expect DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller's production to dip without Deshaun Watson, A.J. Green and Julio Jones have both been underwhelming and draw tough matchups, and Mike Evans seems viable but doesn't have the greatest matchup. We've discussed it ad nauseam, but Thomas is great against increasing spreads:
He's great against rising point totals:
And the Saints' receiving corps feasts on weak secondaries:
Devin Funchess ($5,400, 21.75 IP, EVEN) - With Kelvin Benjamin no longer a member of Panthers, Funcess finds himself atop the WR depth chart. He has had big weeks in the past, and his best production seems to be in games that are close.
Marquise Goodwin ($3,800, 18.25 IP, SF +2.5) - Goodwin has proven to be a bit of a one hit wonder in 2017. But with Pierre Garcon injured and a the addition of Jimmy Garropolo at QB, perhaps we could see another big week from Goodwin.
Travis Kelce ($6,700, 25.75 IP, EVEN) - With no Gronk this week, the top TE slot figures to be a two horse race between Kelce and Zach Ertz. Ertz probably has the better matchup, but with him listed as questionable due to a hamstring injury, I think there is more risk involved for Ertz than Kelce, who has been pretty consistent in 2017 while flashing really nice upside.
Cameron Brate ($4,500, 22 IP, TB +6.5) - Coming into the season there were some questions surrounding who would be the go-to TE end in Tampa Bay. I think it has very clearly been Brate so far, and although Brate has seen his targets shrink a little bit in the past couple weeks, he has still been extremely consistent, sitting around 15 DKP per game. He has a solid increasing production curve against rising point totals:
And he also tends to do pretty well in Bucs' losses, which seems likely given this week's spread.
A.J. Derby ($2,900, 17.75 IP, DEN +8) - He's a near minimum price option at TE. Derby has reached double digits in three of his last four appearances and has been targeted well since Week 4, even getting looks in the red zone. I don't think you can expect a top-TE score from Derby, but if you're looking for a low-budget option that can provide some value, Derby could be worth a look.
Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,800, CIN 17.25 IP, JAC -5) - The Jags have been really good on defense this year, and have been especially good at stifling bad offenses. They match up against a bad offense this Sunday in the Cincinnati Bengals, and thus I think even at top price the Jags are worth the spend.
Los Angeles Rams ($3,100, NYG 19.25 IP, LAR -3.5) - The Rams D has been really good in the last two weeks, allowing a combined 17 points and scoring a combined 39 fantasy points. A hot defense that draws an unimposing matchup against the Giants could mean good value.
Indianapolis Colts ($2,000, HOU 26.5 IP, IND +7) - I think you can throw the implied point total and spread out the window this week, as those numbers were set with the expectation that Deshaun Watson would start at QB. And with no Watson at QB, the Texans offense has looked really bad. On top of that, the Texans also traded Duane Brown who is probably their best offensive linemen.