For full access to our team charts and player distributions for NBA, NFL, and MLB DFS, become an Advanced Sports Analytics member here.
Spreads and Over/Unders as of Thursday night
Cincinnati @ Tennessee (O/U 40.5, TEN -4.5)
Cleveland @ Detroit (O/U 43.5, DET -11)
Green Bay @ Chicago (O/U 38, CHI -5.5)
LA Chargers @ Jacksonville (O/U 41, JAC -3.5)
Minnesota @ Washington (O/U 42.5, MIN -1)
NY Jets @ Tampa Bay (O/U 44, NYJ -2.5)
New Orleans @ Buffalo (O/U 46.5, NO -3)
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis (O/U 44.5, PIT -10)
Houston @ LA Rams (O/U 46.5, LAR -11.5)
Dallas @ Atlanta (O/U 49.5, ATL -3)
NY Giants @ San Francisco (O/U 41.5, NYG -2.5)
Matthew Stafford ($6,800, 27.25 IP, DET -11) - There is a real scarcity of strong quarterback options yet again. I think Stafford has the best matchup of the top 3 quarterbacks (him, Brees, and Prescott). If the Lions can top 25 points and win by two scores, I think Stafford stands a great chance of reaching 25 fantasy points.
And of the Detroit offensive players, the passers and receivers are really the players to target for this juicy matchup against Cleveland's defense.
Matt Ryan ($6,500, 26.25 IP, ATL -3) - Ryan has been extremely underwhelming this year, and is nearing the point where we have to accept him as the wildly average fantasy quarterback that he has been this year. But if you still believe he can recapture his 2016 form, this might be the last week to give him a shot. At $6.5K, his price is at an extreme low.
And although the Falcons have seen larger implied point totals than 26.25, it's still not a bad implied point total for a guy who pretty consistently performs better as the Falcons' point total rises.
Mitchell Trubisky ($4,500, 21.75 IP, CHI -3) - He hasn't been very effective since being handed the keys to the Bears' offense. But at $4.5K, you won't find a cheaper starting QB, and he does draw one of the better matchups he's had as a starter, going up against a porous Packers' defense as 3-point favorites.
Le'Veon Bell ($9,800, 27.25 IP, PIT -10) - With Elliott out, I think Bell is the top guy at RB. Gurley has what is a great matchup on paper, but I think the Texans' run defense is stouter than DraftKings is giving them credit for. And Bell on the other hand has a great matchup. The Colts have the 8th worst defense against RBs, and of Pittsburgh positional units, running backs are the ones who take advantage of weak opponents the most (as indicated by a steeper slope).
Bilal Powell ($4,000, 23.25 IP, NYJ -2.5) - Powell's price tag at $4K probably qualifies him as a sleeper. But with Matt Forte out and a good matchup against the Bucs, Powell is not likely to be a well kept secret weapon this week. His value should increase as the Jets' margin of victory increases, and you can expect the New York running backs (which should be a heavy dose of Powell) to take full advantage of the Tampa Bay defense that gives up the fifth most points to RBs in the NFL.
Justin Davis ($3,000, 29 IP, LAR -11.5) - Davis is a super deep sleeper, that could end up having next to no value. But with the Rams as huge favorites and primary backup Malcolm Brown ruled out, there isn't a completely unlikely scenario in which Davis gets double digit touches: Rams get up huge early and turn to Davis in order to limit Gurley's carries.
A.J Green/Antonio Brown ($7,700/$9,500, 18 IP/ CIN +4.5/PIT -10) - I'm really torn between these two at the top of the WR pecking order. Brown is so much more likely to be the top WR, but he is also $1.8K more expensive. This is not abnormal when comparing the top of the WR draft list, which usually features these two and Julio Jones.
I think Brown (red) is clearly better than Jones (blue), and Green (green) might actually be better than Jones as is (not to mention he is $300 cheaper). Brown is more consistently good, but Green has this high upside that is pretty much equal to that of Brown.
In terms of value, Green has more bust potential, but his just as likely as Brown to be super-high value.
The point is, you can take your pick between these two. Brown with more consistent production, Green with the same value upside as Brown for significantly cheaper. But I think either way, you should be focusing on staying away from Julio Jones.
Golden Tate + Marvin Jones Jr. ($6,800 + $6,200, 27.25 IP, DET -11) - In my opinion this is the best stack of the week. Detriot's QB (Stafford) and WR1 and WR2 (presumably Tate and Jones Jr.) all have pretty nice correlation.
Factor in a favorable matchup, and I think this stack has the potential to put up some big numbers. Tate's (red) and Jones Jr's (blue) production relative to spread is somewhat variable, but there is some evidence to suggest that they could be in for productive days if the Lions win by a pair of touchdowns.
Marquise Lee ($4,100, 22.25 IP, JAC -3.5) - No one really jumps out at me as a sleeper WR. Lee has had double digit targets in two of his past three games and the Jags have a pretty good matchup against the Chargers. Keep an eye on Lee's health status, he is listed as questionable as of Friday.
None - Paying $6.2K for Engram seems like too much. That's a price you pay for Kelce's consistency of Gronk's upside.
Cameron Brate ($4,100, 20.75 IP, TB +2.5) - With Mike Evans suspended, someone will need to step up in Tampa Bay's passing game. I like Brate to fill the void, as he has been pretty consistent all year. He is also a better play in games when the Bucs aren't favored, as he tends to do better in losses.
Hunter Henry ($3,900, 29 IP, LAR -11.5) - Henry hasn't flashed phenomenal upside, but he has reached near 15 fantasy points pretty consistently. He typically reaches his max production when the Rams win by more than one score, which seems like a pretty good bet given their opening line.
O.J. Howard ($2,500, 20.75 IP, TB +2.5) - As mentioned in the Brate section, Mike Evans is suspended, which could lead the Bucs towards more two TE sets, which give Howard some nice sleeper value.