Spreads and Over/Unders as of Friday night
Buffalo @ Kansas City (O/U 46.5, KC -10)
Carolina @ NY Jets (O/U 39.5, CAR -5.5)
Chicago @ Philadelphia (O/U 44, PHI -13.5)
Cleveland @ Cincinnati (O/U 38, CIN -8)
Miami @ New England (O/U 47.5, NE -16.5)
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (O/U 48.5, ATL -10)
Tennessee @ Indianapolis (O/U 46, TEN -3)
Seattle @ San Francisco (O/U 45, SEA -6.5)
Denver @ Oakland (O/U 43.5, OAK -5)
Jacksonville @ Arizona (O/U 37.5, JAC -5.5)
New Orleans @ LA Rams (O/U 54, LAR -2.5)
Tom Brady ($7,700, 32 IP, NE -16.5)/Russell Wilson ($7,000, 25.75 IP, SEA -6.5) - The way I see it, there are three guys vying for the top quarterback spot: Brady, Wentz, and Wilson. At their given implied point levels, Wilson and Brady are pretty much neck and neck as far as expected production. Wentz clearly lags behind.
I think Wilson and Brady offer value in two different ways. Brady's floor is the highest (between Wilson and Brady), and he is the most consistent of the two. However, what Wilson lacks in consistency, he makes up for in tremendous upside.
From a cost standpoint, both Wilson and Brady have pretty good price points given their matchups, I'd say Brady's is a little better, with Wentz' price being the most inflated.
I'd give Brady a little more exposure in your lineups, but both he and Wilson should be heavily featured in your lineups this weekend. In addition, New England and Seattle have far more offensive correlation than Philadelphia.
Marcus Mariota ($6,300, 24.5 IP, TEN -3)/Tyrod Taylor ($5,800, 18.25 IP, BUF +10) - In the same vein as above, Mariota and Taylor are a pair of QBs who are both at pretty good price points, and offer potential value in completely different ways.
Mariota is a very consistent quarterback option who, if the Titans are able to win by a touchdown or less, seems likely to sit around the 20 DKP level, giving him solid value of greater than 3x. Taylor on the other hand is a a super-erratic option who could bust in a big way, or if the Bills manage to top their implied point total and score somewhere in the 20's could wind up touching 30 DKP.
Blake Bortles ($4,900, 21.5 IP, JAC -5.5) - I frequently like Bortles as a sleeper pick, as he has good upside. And at $4.9K this week, he's at a pretty solid price point given a favorable matchup. When the Jaguars score around 20 points, Bortles has a pretty good chance to get to 20 DKP, although his 25+ efforts in the last 17 weeks have only come when the Jags top 30 points.
He also makes for an increasingly valuable play if you plan to fade Fournette, as the Jaguars' RB1 and QB1 have a -0.24 correlation.
Todd Gurley II ($8,800, 28.25 IP, LAR -2.5) - I think this is a perfectly good weekend to run back the Ingram/Kamara stack that has been so good over the past two weekends. But that stack is $600 more than it was last weekend. Gurley is on the flip side of Saints' running back duo, and has a tremendous matchup. $8.8K is on the high end for what you typically see Gurley cost, but he has an exceptionally consistent track record of being more productive in high-scoring games, and has been at his best in narrow Rams' victories.
We don't have any data to back it up, but a Gurley/Kamara stack could be interesting, as it would seem to benefit from a high-scoring game in which the Rams take an early lead, forcing the Saints to lean more heavily on their passing attack, and thus tending towards Kamara out of the backfield instead of Ingram.
Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,600, 15 IP, CLE +8) - Nothing about this weekend's matchup screams big-upside game for any Browns (actually quite the opposite). But Johnson has proven that he doesn't really need a for the game to be a shootout for him to get going. His better scoring efforts usually come in low-scoring games.
Johnson doesn't have huge upside, but who does (predictably) at less than $5K? He has a nice right-skew distribution, giving him a high floor and high ceiling, given his price point. I
saiah Crowell is also listed as questionable.
Terron Ward ($3,500, 29.25 IP, ATL -10) - With Devonta Freeman out Sunday with concussion, Tevin Coleman will be the lead back, with Ward slotted as the #2. Coleman could be a solid play this weekend, his price is just a little high for me to be bullish on him. Ward could make for an interesting sleeper play if he is able to break off a big run or Coleman gets injured.
Brandin Cooks ($7,100, 32 IP, NE -16.5)/Doug Baldwin ($7,000, 25.75 IP, SEA -6.5) - They are the inherent optimal stacks at WR for either Brady or Wilson. WR1 has great correlation for both New England (+0.56) and Seattle (+0.81). You could even consider throwing a second WR or a TE onto either of these stacks. Baldwin has better rising production relative to implied point totals (although his team's isn't as high as Cooks'), but Cooks' price point is better relative to where we have seen each priced in the past. Both of these guys are must-plays in any lineup with their respective QB.
Paul Richardson ($4,700, 25.75 IP, SEA -6.5)/Sammy Watkins ($4,900, 28.25 IP, LAR -2.5) - Richardson is a further addition to a highly correlated Seattle stack. He has increasing value in the 25-30 Seahawks' point range, and does have big-game potential. Watkins has a nearly identical distribution to Richardson, although perhaps lacks the same per-team-point upside that Richardson has (but also has a high implied point total to work with).
Watkins also should see more action with Robert Woods out of the mix on Sunday. Watkins is part of a highly correlated Los Angeles offense, whose correlation matrix is green just about everywhere.
Cooper Kupp ($5,000, 28.25 IP, LAR -2.5) - Along the same lines of Los Angeles correlation and Robert Woods absence, Cooper Kupp could make for an intriguing option as part of a Rams stack. His upside isn't as high as Watkins, but his floor isn't as low.
Zay Jones ($4,000, 18.25 IP, BUF +10) - With questionable designations aplenty in the Bills receiving corp (Matthews, Benjamin, Thompson), Zay Jones figures to benefit if any combination of the aforementioned receivers are out. He's averaging almost 7 targets over the past 5 weeks, and has set season high's in receiving yards each of the past two weeks.
Rob Gronkowski ($6,900, 32 IP, NE -16.5)/Jimmy Graham ($5,800, 25.75 IP, SEA -6.5) - You're probably noticing a trend here. Plug and play whichever tight end aligns with your QB/WR stack. New England (+0.55) has slightly better QB/TE correlation than Seattle (+0.35).
Travis Kelce ($7,300, 28.25 IP, KC -10) - He is independently probably the best play at TE. But Kansas City's TE1 negatively correlates with every significant member of the team's offense, making him a tough option to stack.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4,300, 17 IP, NYJ +5.5) - We're not that far removed from ASJ being priced at or just below $5K. He did get 9 targets last week, so I think his $4.3K price tag could be a bargain this week.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,700, 16 IP, ARI +5.5) - Time to find out if last week's two-TD performance was a flash in the pan or the beginning of something more.
Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,100, ARI 16 IP, JAC -5.5) - This defense is really good (the best fantasy D/ST in football by a pretty wide margin), and the Cardinals' offense is frequently anemic.
Seattle Seahawks ($3,800,SF 19.25 IP, SEA -6.5)/Philadelphia Eagles ($3,600, CHI 15.25 IP, PHI -13.5) - Two pretty good defenses going up against two pretty bad offenses. But at the end of the day, I think Jacksonville is easily the only D/ST worth strongly considering with any sort of confidence.