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Spreads and Over/Unders as of Friday night
Arizona @ Houston (O/U 38, HOU -2.5)
Baltimore @ Green Bay (O/U 37.5, BAL -2)
Detroit @ Chicago (O/U 40.5, DET -3)
Jacksonville @ Cleveland (O/U 37, JAC -7.5)
Kansas City @ NY Giants (O/U 45, KC -10.5)
LA Rams @ Minnesota (O/U 46, MIN -2.5)
Tampa Bay @ Miami (O/U 42, EVEN)
Washington @ New Orleans (O/U 51, NO -7.5)
Buffalo @ LA Chargers (O/U 41, LAC -6)
Cincinnati @ Denver (O/U 38.5, DEN -2.5)
New England @ Oakland (O/U 55, NE -7)
Philadelphia @ Dallas (O/U 48, PHI -4.5)
Tom Brady ($7,400, 31 IP, NE -7) - There are pretty much three games to key on this week: New England @ Oakland, Kansas City @ New York, and Washington @ New Orleans. I think of the three favorites in these games, New England is the most stackable offense, and the likely top performers are the most predictable. Brady should be great this weekend, as the Patriots' super high point total and opening line should give Brady a really good shot to top 30 DKP.
I see the ideal Patriots stack as Brady-Brandin Cooks-Gronkowski, as there is good correlation between the Pats' QB1, WR1, and TE1. Brady and Gronk are all but guaranteed to be the respective QB1 and TE1, Cooks less so, but due to injuries through the wide receiver corp I think stands a good chance to be the Patriots' top receiver.
Alex Smith ($6,700, 27.75 IP, KC -10.5) - As mentioned above, KC is a team to focus on, due to their high implied point total and opening line. I think Smith is a good independent play, although the Kansas Offense lacks good QB-WR-TE correlation the way the Patriots offense is stacked.
But Smith is exceptional when the Chiefs win by double digits, and has great correlation between his production and the Chiefs point total.
Derek Carr is an intriguing play as the Raiders have a pretty high implied point total as well, but I'm not high on him at all, as his production is really only high when the Raiders win, which seems unlikely this weekend.
Nathan Peterman ($4,700, 17.5 IP, BUF +6) - Peterman wasn't bad in relief duty last weekend, completing 7 of 10 passes and adding a touchdown. He is one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks available, and if he could reach 15 DKP, I think he'd reach a decent value point.
Mark Ingram ($8,100, 29.25 IP, NO -7.5) - The third big game that hasn't been mentioned is the New Orleans game, where they have a huge implied total. New Orleans has good QB-WR correlation, I just think it is becoming harder to figure out who will be what positional rank at WR. And New Orleans has a unique offense in that it can allow for two highly productive and highly correlation running backs.
And Ingram also takes advantage of rising Saints' point totals and margin of victory, which would be good indicators to ride this weekend.
Alvin Kamara ($7,500, 29.25 IP, NO -7.5) - See Ingram above. Usually stacking two running backs in the same backfield isn't advised. But the Saints' offense is one in which two running backs can coexist. Just take last week for example when Kamara put up 27+ DKP while Ingram topped 34 DKP.
Alex Collins ($3,900, 19.75 IP, BAL -2) - The rub with Collins is his lack of touchdowns (exactly zero). His price has taken a major hit, due to the expected return of Danny Woodhead. But I think Woodhead factors into the passing game more than the running game, which should limit his impact on Collins production. If Collins can find a way to break his touchdown drought, he could be good value as his yardage and usage numbers have been good enough over much of 2017.
None - I'm not thrilled with any of the top receivers (and I think there is a lot of good value in the sub-$7K range). Evans hasn't been terribly productive, he was out last week to suspension, and is working with a backup quarterback. And Thielen and Green both have tough matchups. Michael Thomas makes the most sense if you're chasing a top receiver, as he would make for a solid stack with Drew Brees at QB.
Brandin Cooks ($6,600, 31 IP, NE -7) - His targets have been up in the past couple weeks, and with Chris Hogan out and Danny Amendola questionable he figures to be even more of a feature in the Pats offense. As mentioned in the Brady section, I like him as part of a Patriots QB-WR-TE stack.
Jarvis Landry ($6,400, 21 IP, EVEN) - Landry puts up really good and consistent numbers, in large part due to his high usage. He seems likely to get double digit targets, and although the Dolphins don't have a huge implied point total, as long as they can get close to 20 points, Landry stands a decent chance to also get to 20 points.
His production also tends to be best in games decided by 5 points or fewer.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100, 20.25 IP, HOU -2.5) - Hopkins has been excellent this year, getting a ton of yards and touchdowns. His price is super low this week, almost certainly due to a combination of Tom Savage under center and Patrick Patterson lining up across from him.
But at $6.1K, he doesn't have to have a huge game to return decent value. And I'm not so convinced that Patterson is a deal-breaking matchup, as there is evidence of Patterson not being invincible (although he has been very effective at minimizing receivers) and Hopkins having success against other elite corners (see vs. Sherman).
Phillip Dorsett ($3,900, 31 IP, NE -7) - I don't know if Dorsett makes much sense if you're going with Brandin Cooks. But if you're looking for an alternative and cheaper QB-WR-TE stack in the New England offense, consider Dorsett. He played 49 of 70 snaps last week, and with Chris Hogan expected to be out again, that high usage could continue. If Amendola (questionable) is also unable to go, a Brady-Dorsett-Gronkowski or even Brady-Cooks-Dorsett-Gronkowski stack becomes even more appealing.
Rob Gronkowski ($7,200, 31 IP, NE -7) - See previous sections on Brady, Cooks, Dorsett.
Vernon Davis ($4,600, 24 IP, WAS +7) - With Jordan Reed out the past two weeks, Davis has averaged 10 targets and nearly 14 DKP per week. With Reed out again and the Redskins slated for a potentially high-scoring game, Davis makes for an ideal mid-tier TE target.
Julius Thomas ($2,800, 21 IP, EVEN) - His target numbers have been up in the past two weeks and he's caught a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. He's got pretty good upside for a min-priced TE, a touchdown with minimal yardage or modest yardage with no touchdowns would give Thomas adequate value, a touchdown plus modest yardage could make Thomas a nice near-minimum sleeper.
Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,000, CLE 14.75 IP, JAC -7.5) - The Jags are a good defense as is. With inclement weather expected in Cleveland on Sunday and a futile Browns offense this already good defense should be even better. Look no further than an opposing 14.75 implied points.
Baltimore Ravens ($3,400, GB 17.75 IP, BAL -2) - The Packers haven't been able to score well without Aaron Rodgers and the Ravens defense has been at times very opportunistic in 2017.
Los Angeles Rams ($2,400, MIN 24.75 IP, LAR +2.5 - I don't expect there to be any good defenses towards the bottom of the barrel this week. There are just a bunch of bad defenses playing good teams. The Rams might be the one case of a good defense playing a good team, the latter of which is driving down their price. But the Rams D has been strong over the last four weeks, and they could end up holding the Vikings to fewer than their 24.75 implied points.