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Spreads and Over/Unders as of Thursday night
Arizona @ LA Rams (O/U 47, LAR -3.5)
Baltimore @ Minnesota (O/U 40, MIN -5.5)
Carolina @ Chicago (O/U 40.5, CAR -3)
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (O/U 44, JAC -3)
NY Jets @ Miami (O/U 38.5, MIA -3.5)
New Orleans @ Green Bay (O/U 47.5, NO -4.5)
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo (O/U ?, BUF -3)
Tennesse @ Cleveland (O/U 45.5, TEN -5.5)
Dallas @ San Francisco (O/U 46.5, DAL -6)
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (O/U 40.5, PIT -5)
Denver @ LA Chargers (O/U 40.5, EVEN)
Seattle @ NY Giants (O/U 40, SEA -4.5)
Dak Prescott ($7,300, 26.25 IP, DAL -6) - The usual foursome of elite quarterbacks (Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, Brees) is whittled down to one this week, with Rodger suffering a season-ending injury last week and with Ryan and Brady matching up in the Sunday night game. And Brees has been flat out underwhelming this year. That allows Prescott to rise in the ranks as my top QB. Prescott feasts in games which the Cowboys put up a lot of points and win by a considerable margin. Given Dallas' implied point total and pre-game line, I like Prescott's upside this week.
Trevor Siemian ($5,400, 20.25 IP, EVEN) - Siemian tends to be pretty good in close games (although there is a bit of a limited sample on Siemian).
Given that this game is a pick 'em, Siemian could be a good value play. He has topped 20 DKP in three of five games this season.
Blake Bortles ($4,700, 23.5 IP, JAC -3) - Bortles and the Jags have a good matchup this week against the lowly Colts. For a min-priced quarterback, Bortles has a ton of variance (so you'll have to be prepared to take the good with the bad), but if he has a good game, Bortles does have 25+ DKP upside.
The Jags feast on weaker defenses, as the 27th ranked defense against QBs, the Colts should give Bortles ample opportunity for a solid game.
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000, 26.25 IP, DAL -6) - The implied point total and spread are both good for Elliott. If you've been keeping up with our weekly primers, you know that QB1-RB1-WR1 can be a highly-correlated stack for the Dallas offense. And with Elliott going up against the worst defense against opposing running backs, he should be a stud this week even at his lofty price.
Derrick Henry ($5,500, 25.5 IP, TEN -5.5) - Henry had a monster week last week, going for over 100 yards and a score. He is still in somewhat of a split with DeMarco Murray, but Henry has outplayed Murray as of late and there are some indications that Henry's workload could increase. Henry's upside is also buoyed by a high-scoring efforts and sizable Titans' wins, both of which could be very probable this weekend given the pre-game line and Titans' implied point total.
And even though he had a huge week last week, Henry's price is about where it has been all season.
Orleans Darkwa ($3,700, 17.75 IP, NYG +4.5) - Really tough matchup for Darkwa on an offense that has had a tough time moving the football this year. But as bad of a matchup and situation as Darkwa may be in, $3.7K is too low for a guy who topped 100 yards last week on more than 20 carries. If the Giants can shock the Seahawks (who are a West coast team traveling East for an afternoon game), perhaps Darkwa can have a repeat performance as a deep sleeper.
Antonio Brown ($9,000, 22.75 IP, PIT -5) - The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been quite as prolific as we had expected coming into 2017, but Brown has still found a way to be uber-productive even when the Steelers don't light up the scoreboard. The next best guy A.J. Green lines up on the opposite side of the field, but I think has a much tougher matchup than Brown does. I usually like Dez Bryant in the type of matchup that he has, but his price tag ($7.8K) just seems too high to give him a shot at being super high value.
Michael Thomas ($7,500, 26 IP, NO -4.5) - Thomas had a down week last week, but I'm buying a bounce-back week for the Saints' receiver. Thomas has increased upside in high-scoring Saints victories, which seems like a fairly likely outcome given pre-game Vegas indicators.
Bennie Fowler ($3,300, 20.25 IP, EVEN) - With Emmanuel Sanders out and Demayrius Thomas listed as questionable for Sunday, Fowler figures to see an increased role in the Broncos offense. Other factors bolstering Fowler's sleeper value: he saw a season-high 8 passes thrown his way last week and in his Week 1 matchup against the Chargers Fowler caught a pair of touchdown passes.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5,000, 17.5 IP, NYJ +3.5) - With neither Travis Kelce nor Rob Gronkowski playing during Sunday's day slate, the top TE spot is wide open for the field. I like Seferian-Jenkins, who has caught touchdown passes in back-to-back games, and has emerged as the Jets top red zone target.
Evan Engram ($4,500, 17.75 IP, NYG +4.5) - With the season-ending injury to Odell Beckham, Engram has established himself as a reliable receiving option for Eli Manning. With Sterling Shepard questionable to return this week, I think Engram could be a nice value play yet again, as he seems to have a good rapport with Eli, garnering 7+ targets and collecting 5+ receptions in three of his last four contests.
Nick O'Leary ($3,100, ?? IP, BUF -3) - With Charles Clay out, O'Leary caught five of six targets for a team high 54 yards. If O'Leary can find a way to sneak into this endzone this week he's got great potential as a TE sleeper.
Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,700, IND 20.5 IP, JAC -3) - The Jags have been one of the top fantasy defenses of 2017, and they draw a favorable matchup against the Colts, who have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
New Orleans Saints ($3,000, GB 21.5 IP, NO -4.5) - Your expected value of the Saints is tied pretty closely to how bad you actually think Brett Hundley is. I'm sure that the Packers will try to establish the run early, but if the Saints' offense can jump on the Packers early the Packers might be forced to lean heavily on their backup quarterback who threw three interceptions last weekend.
Los Angeles Rams ($2,600, ARI 21.75 IP, LAR -3.5) - The Rams' defense has been modestly productive this year, doing a good job of getting after the quarterback and forcing a handful of turnovers. The Cardinals' addition of Adrian Peterson adds a new dimension to their offense, but if the Rams can get ahead early and force the Cardinals' to rely on Carson Palmer (and their weak offensive line) to play catchup, the Rams D/ST could be in for a big game.