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Spreads and Over/Under's as of Thursday night.
New England @ Tampa Bay (O/U 54.5, NE -5.5)
Arizona @ Philadelphia (O/U 45, PHI -6.5)
Buffalo @ Cincinnati (O/U 39.5, CIN -3)
Carolina @ Detroit (O/U 44, DET -2)
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (O/U 44, PIT -8.5)
LA Chargers @ NY Giants (O/U 44.5, NYG -3.5)
NY Jets @ Cleveland (O/U 39, EVEN)
San Francisco @ Indianapolis (O/U 44, IND -1.5)
Tennesse @ Miami (O/U ?, TEN -3)
Baltimore @ Oakland (O/U 39, OAK -2.5)
Seattle @ LA Rams (O/U 47, LAR -1)
Green Bay @ Dallas (O/U 52, DAL -2)
Kansas City @ Houston (O/U 47, KC -1)
Minnesota @ Chicago (O/U ?, Min -3)
Tom Brady ($8,000, 30 IP, NE -5.5) - Brady had a down week (by his standards) last week. But as we've documented before, Brady is great in games where the Pats put up a lot of points and have a significant margin of victory. Coming off a loss, look for Brady and the Patriots to be firing on all cylinders.
Dak Prescott ($6,800, 27 IP, DAL -2) - The Prescott/Elliott/Bryant stack was pretty effective last week, as the Cowboys put up a big point total (but lost). There is surprisingly good correlation between Dallas' QB1, RB1, and WR1.
With another large implied point total and as two-point favorites, I again like the Prescott/Elliott/Bryant stack, although the price point on the stack has risen significantly.
Joe Flacco ($4,700, 18.25 IP, BAL +2.5) - Flacco has had a really bad year so far, and his price is undoubtedly a reflection of his poor performance. But his volatility is nothing new when looking back to 2016. It's really not a great matchup for Flacco, and I do think you should be spending more at QB, but if you are loading up on skill positions and are looking for a bottom-tier QB to take a flyer on consider rolling the dice with Flacco.
Le'Veon Bell ($9,500, 26.25 IP, PIT -8.5) - It looks like Le'Veon Bell is back to doing Le'Veon Bell things after getting off to a rather pedestrian start to the 2017 season. Aside from simply riding the hot streak, Bell has a juicy matchup against the Jaguars. He tends to have steeply increasing production as the Steelers' point total rises through the 20-35 point range.
Ezekiel Elliott (8,800, 27 IP, DAL -2) - See correlation chart in section on Dak Prescott above for confirmation of the Prescott/Elliott/Bryant stack. But buyer beware, Elliott's price tag is as large as we've seen in the last 17 weeks.
Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,900, 19.5 IP, CLE -1) - Cleveland's point total isn't incredibly high, it's actually quite low, but I've really liked Johnson's ability to produce through either goal-line carries or through the receiving game. We only have one data point of Cleveland actually winning to go off of in the last 17 weeks (and Johnson didn't perform well), but if we consider points where Cleveland almost won, Johnson figures to be a decent play if Cleveland can win or lose a close game.
Eddie Lacy ($3,400, 23 IP, SEA -1) - No data supporting this pick, but Lacy didn't look bad in relief of Chris Carson last week, and draws an ok matchup. It's not completely clear how carries will be divvied up between Lacy and the previously ineffective Thomas Rawls. But for only $3,400 I think Lacy is worth a roll of the dice if it allows you to spend big at other positions.
Jordy Nelson ($8,100, 25 IP, GB +2)/Mike Evans ($7,900, 24.5 IP, TB +5.5) - Both Nelson and Evans are underdogs (Evans by a pretty wide margin) in games that are expected to be pretty high-scoring. In the past I've found these players to be pretty effective (and at times underpriced) plays. Nelson has a very nice bell-shaped distribution that extends North of 30 DKP. If the Packers can keep it close and up-tempo, I like Nelson's upside.
Evans doesn't have huge upside associated with a huge point total. But I think the Bucs topping 30 points is a bit of a pipedream. In a more realistic scenario, Evans has increasing value as Tampa Bay's point total rises through the 20-30 point range.
Dez Bryant ($6,800, 27 IP, DAL -2) - See Dak Prescott correlation matrix for Prescott/Elliott/Bryant stack.
Adam Humphries ($3,300, 24.5 IP, TB +5.5) - A healthy loss could be a good thing for Humphries.
Additionally, Humphries is averaging 8.5 targets over the past two games, and his possession-receiving style could play up in up-tempo game.
Travis Kelce ($6,000, 24 IP, KC +1) - Kelce has been hit-or-miss this year. I like him to hit this week, as he's great in close and high-scoring games.
Cameron Brate ($3,700 IP, 24.5 IP, TB +5.5) - Brate is all over the place as far as his production relative to point total. His Fantasy Points vs. Actual Points chart is the dictionary definition of a low R-squared.
However erroneous the correlation between Brate's fantasy production and the Bucs' actual production may be, it does look like odds of a big game for 15+ DKP game for Brate increase as the Bucs approach 30 points.
Ryan Griffin ($3,100, 25 IP, HOU -1) - Griffin's usage hasn't been bad in the last two weeks, but last week his efficiency was. But we're not terribly far removed from Griffin's 5-catch/60-yard/touchdown performance in Week 3. As a low-budget option at TE, I like Griffin's upside.
Detroit Lions ($3,200, CAR 20 IP, DET -2) - Good defense against a not-so-good-but-did-good-last-week offense in Carolina. I'm pretty high on the Lions who have scored double-digits every week in 2017.
Baltimore Raves ($2,900, OAK 20.75 IP, BAL +2.5) - A defense that has, at times, shown flashes of brilliance, but as of late has been bad. The remedy: a team that is 0-2 with 20 combined points in the last two weeks and without their starting quarterback for the first time in 2017.
Buffalo Bills ($2,600, CIN 21.25 IP, BUF +3) - The Bills' defense hasn't been terrible. Cincinnati's offense has, at times, been terrible.