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Spreads and Over/Unders as of Friday night

Chicago @ Baltimore (O/U 39.5, BAL -6.5)
Cleveland @ Houston (O/U 47, HOU -9)
Detroit @ New Orleans (O/U 50, NO -4)
Green Bay @ Minnesota (O/U 44.5, GB -3)
Miami @ Atlanta (O/U 46, ATL -13)
New England @ NY Jets (O/U 47.5, NE -9.5)
San Francisco @ Washington (O/U 46.5, WAS -11)
LA Rams @ Jacksonville (O/U 42, JAC -2.5)
Tampa Bay @ Arizona (O/U 45.5, TB -1)
LA Chargers @ Oakland
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (O/U 46.5, KC -4)
NY Giants @ Denver (O/U 38.5, DEN -11.5)


Drew Brees ($7,200, 27 IP, NO -4) - I don't love any of the top four quarterbacks we've become pretty accustomed to seeing at the top of the DraftKings QB board.  But I think Brees is at a pretty good price and if the Saints can overachieve, I think Brees has some good upside.

I've been high on Tom Brady in recent weeks, but he and the Patriots have fallen back to Earth in recent weeks.  And I'm not convinced the Jets are a great matchup for Brady as they've allowed the 8th fewest points to QBs.  And Brady's production has shown to be pretty responsive to opposing defenses, as indicated by a steep and tight slope.

Deshaun Watson ($6,700, 28 IP, HOU -9) - Watson has been phenomenal in the past two weeks, averaging better than 35 fantasy points per game.  He draws a great matchup against the Browns.  We have only a small sample to go off with Watson, but in his young career the Houston QB has shown a tendency to be most productive in high-scoring games, and as the spread tilts towards the Texans favor.

Texans' quarterbacks also have a decent track record of being increasingly productive as the quality of their opponent weakens.

Kirk Cousins ($6,800, 28.75 IP, WAS -11) - The Redskins' implied point total is to huge to ignore this week.  

And after getting off to a slow start, Cousins is starting to pick up a little steam.  $6.8K is an average price for Cousins, but given such a great matchup I think Cousins' value will play up.  Consider stacking Cousins with a Washington receiver, as Washington's QB1 and WR have a solid +0.64 correlation.

Brian Hoyer ($5,100, 17.75 IP, SF +11)/Josh McCown ($5,200, 19 IP, NYJ +9.5)
Neither Hoyer nor McCown have good matchups by conventional wisdom: both with implied point totals below 20.  But they are both low-priced QBs in what should be pretty fast-paced games.  And both actually play pretty susceptible secondaries.  I like Hoyer in particular, as he is significantly better in blowout losses, and San Francisco quarterbacks have a track record of putting up better numbers against weaker defenses.

Running Back

Kareem Hunt ($8,200, 25.5 IP, KC -4)They're prices are trending in opposite directions, which is why I'm buying on Kareem Hunt over Le'Veon Bell.  But it's not only the direction of their prices that has me high on Hunt and low on Bell.  Both Kansas City (top) and Pittsburgh (bottom) running backs are pretty responsive to the quality of their defense against the run, and Hunt is going against the 32nd ranked Steelers D vs. RBs while Bell is going up against the 2nd ranked Chiefs D vs. RBs.  Advantage Hunt.

Plus, the Chiefs are 4-point favorites which figures to help Hunt.

Mike Gillislee ($5,500, 28.5 IP, NE -9.5) - At only $5.5K, Gillislee is the primary goal line back for a Patriots team that has a great matchup against the division rival Jets.  The Jets have the 25th worst defense against the running backs, which bodes well for Gillislee and other NE running backs.  There is a little uncertainty surrounding the pecking order of New England RBs, but as long as Gillislee gets the bulk of red zone carries (which I expect him to do), I like his potential value in this game.

Duke Johnson Jr. ($5,100, 19 IP, CLE +9) - Johson has been consistently good over the past three weeks.  Although the Browns are huge underdogs this week, that might play into Johnson's hands.  The other week Johnson got 10 targets in a 7-31 Browns loss.  I'm not so sure a blowout loss is bad for Johnson.

Adrian Peterson ($3,400, 23.25 IP, ARI -1)Peterson didn't really ever have a chance to get going in New Orleans.  He's certainly got his chance now, as the Cardinals have already declared AP their RB1.  The matchup is actually pretty good and at $3,400 the former rushing champ is worth the roll of the dice.

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones ($8,200, 29.5 IP, ATL -13)
Jones price is in a free fall, as he has been very unproductive through the first third of 2017.  Antonio Brown has been very hit or miss, and his high price tag doesn't have me intrigued.  DeAndre Hopkins is an interesting option at $8,100, as he like Jones has a matchup that features each of their teams as heavy favorites.  But Julio has a better track record of taking advantage of blowout wins, in fact Hopkins is flat out not good in blowout Texans victories.

Michael Thomas ($7,300, 27 IP, NO -4)
Michael Thomas is starting to heat up, but his price tag hasn't blown up.  Thomas is an ideal WR for a high-scoring, blowout Saints victory, as his production rises consistently with the Saints' point total and margin of victory.

Oh, and a +0.86 correlation with New Orleans' QB1?  If you're playing Brees, Thomas is a must-play stack.

Jamison Crowder ($4,000, 28.75 IP, WAS -11)
- Crowder has yet to have a really impressive week in 2017.  But if last year was any evidence, Crowder does have some upside, and is usually priced much higher than $4K.

As previously noted, Cousins has good correlation with his top receiver, a designation that has really been up for grabs for most of 2017.  If you're playing Cousins, I think Crowder is a great low-price stacking option that could make for a potent but cheap QB/WR pair.

Marquise Goodwin ($4,100, 17.75 IP, SF +11) On the other side of the ledger is a guy who can flat out burn, and had a very productive week last week. As I think Crowder/Cousins makes for a strong pair, Goodwin/Hoyer could make for minimum-priced QB/WR stack.  If San Francisco is able to overachieve, this could be a nice value stack that should free up plenty of salary space.

Tight End

Travis Kelce ($6,100, 25.25 IP, KC -4)
Kelce has that ideal left-skewed distribution you want to see in a guy.  A mix of consistency and upside.

He should be able to top 20 DKP if the Chiefs can win by about a touchdown and approach 30 total points.

And in two home games in 2017, Kelce has put up 27.3 and 27.4 fantasy points.

Cameron Brate ($3,900, 22.25 IP, TB +1)
Guys like Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Ryan Griffin figure to be trendy picks this week, but how about Cameron Brate.  In the past three weeks he has only produced a 13-catch/181-yard/3-touchdown stretch.

David Njoku ($3,000, 19 IP, CLE +9)
Njoku hasn't been a high-usage receiver for Cleveland, but he has been very efficient and has caught touchdown passes in three of the last four weeks


Baltimore Ravens ($3,700, CHI 16.25 IP, BAL -6.5)
An impossibly low implied point total has me high on the Ravens D/ST.  And the top-priced Texans feel like they have limited upside without the likes of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus.

Green Bay Packers ($2,800, MIN 20.75 IP, GB -3)
Green Bay's D/ST has registered double digits in back-to-back weeks.  And with Sam Bradford, Dalvin Cook, and Stafon Diggs all out, I don't see how Minnesota is going to be able to move the ball.