For full access to our team charts and player distributions for NBA, NFL, and MLB DFS, become an Advanced Sports Analytics member here.


Spreads and Over/Under's as of Thursday night.

New Orleans @ Miami (O/U 50.5, NO -3)
Buffalo @ Atlanta (O/U 48.5, ATL -8)
Carolina @ New England (O/U 49, NE -9)
Cincinnati @ Cleveland (O/U 41, CIN -3)
Detroit @ Minnesota (O/U 43, MIN -1.5)
Jacksonville @ NY Jets (O/U 38, JAC -3)
LA Rams @ Dallas (O/U 48, DAL -6)
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (O/U 42, PIT -2.5)
Tennessee @ Houston (O/U 43.5, TEN -2)
NY Giants @ Tampa Bay (O/U 44.5, TB -3)
Philadelphia @ LA Chargers (O/U 48, LAC -1)
San Francisco @ Arizona (O/U 44.5, ARI -6.5)
Oakland @ Denver (O/U 46, DEN -3)
Indianapolis @ Seattle (O/U 41.5, SEA -13)


Quarterback

Stud(s)
Tom Brady ($8,000, 29 IP, NE -9) - Same as the last two weeks, the Brady/Gronk train shows no indications of slowing down against Carolina

Value(s)
Not Phillip Rivers - I've been seeing some people calling for a Rivers' bounce back, citing a good matchup against Philadelphia with a respectable implied point total.  While $6.3K is a pretty good price for Rivers, I'm not so high on his upside.  Rivers displays marginal increases in production due to rising point totals, and for that reason alone, it is hard to get behind him as a QB with much upside.

I think I'd be more inclined to take a gamble on lower-priced QBs with higher upside, like Stafford, Carr, Taylor, Bortles, or Kizer, or pony up for high-floor/high-ceiling options like Brady or Ryan.

Dak Prescott ($6,200, 27 IP, DAL -6) - The Cowboys have a really nice implied point total and pre-game spread.  Both of which Prescott tends to feast on.

I think there are a few cheaper QBs (see above) that offer nice upside but also have some risk.  For a higher price tag, Prescott offers decent upside and less risk.

Sleeper(s)
Deshaun Watson ($5,100, 20.75 IP, HOU +2) - Watson and the Texans aren't working with a great implied point total.  But they both outperformed expectations in a huge way last week against New England.  While Watson's price is more responsive to last weeks boom, I still think we might be underestimating the Texans offense when Watson is on his game.  As a QB who provides production through the air and on the ground, Watson could be sleeper if you're not planning to spend big at QB.

Running Back

Stud(s)
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200, 27 IP, DAL -6)Le'Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy have been inconsistent (and McCoy has had some injury issues).  Elliott hasn't quite been a model of consistency either, but if the Cowboys can win the game as expected, I think Elliott is a lock to top 20 DKP, and has a good chance at approaching 30 DKP.

Value(s)
Melvin Gordon ($7,000, 24.5 IP, LAC -1) - Gordon has tremendous upside amidst rising point totals and actually is at his most productive in close games.

$7K feels like a good price for Gordon, although he is listed as questionable, so keep an eye on his status as Sunday approaches.

Sleeper(s)
Andre Ellington ($3,800, 25.5 IP, ARI -6.5) - With David Johnson's continued absence, someone will have to fill the void at RB for Arizona.  Chris Johnson has not been effective as Arizona's featured runner, and Ellington has been effective as both a runner and pass-catcher.  With Arizona's favorable matchup this week, I like Ellington's upside at very low price.

Wide Receiver

Stud(s)
Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,900, 20.75 IP, NYG +3) - Nothing about this matchup screams "big game" for Beckham.  But that's the thing about OBJ: his upside is pretty random, and isn't really tied to point totals or margins of victory in a big way.



With Antonio Brown drawing a tough matchup against Baltimore and Julio Jones dealing with some injury concerns, I like Beckham's chances to be this weekend's top receiver.  And $8.9K is a pretty decent price for Beckham.

Value(s)
Dez Bryant ($6,500, 27 IP, DAL -6) - Bryant is coming off of a week that only saw the ball thrown his way twice, but he was shadowed all day by Arizona CB Patrick Peterson.  And even with Peterson lined up opposite him, Bryant still managed to pull in a touchdown for the second straight week.  He is only one week removed from a 16-target game and has a great matchup that figures to give him a good chance of topping 20 DKP.

Dallas' WR1 also has great correlation with Prescott, and even has decent correlation with Dallas' RB1.  A Prescott-Elliott-Bryant stack (although unconventional) isn't completely out of the question if you have faith in the Dallas offense to put up big numbers.

Sleeper(s)
Taylor Gabriel ($4,100, 28.25 IP, ATL -8) - Gabriel got 6 targets last week and hauled in a big 40-yard touchdown.  With Julio Jones a question mark this week, keep an eye on Gabriel who could benefit greatly from an injured Jones and a juicy matchup against the Bills.

Tight End

Stud(s)
Rob Gronkowski ($6,600, 29 IP, NE -9) - See Brady above.  Gronk's price has some how managed to drop on the heels of back-to-back big games.

Value(s)
Charles Clay ($3,700, 20.25 IP, BUF +8) - Clay has been very productive in two of the three games so far this year.  The only exclusion was the Bills' 3-9 loss to Carolina.  The Bills don't have a huge implied point total, but they figure to be in a higher scoring affair than the aforementioned game.  Assuming the Bills can put up a reasonable point total, I like Clay's chances of being nice value at TE, even as major underdogs.

Sleeper(s)
Eric Ebron ($3,100, 20.75 IP, DET +1.5) - $3.1K is an obscenely low price for Ebron, who is usually pretty consistent.  He has struggled with drops early in 2017, but his usage has been pretty high.

D/ST

Stud(s)
Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600, NYJ 17.5 IP, JAC -3) - A good defense going up against a bad offense?  Jacksonville deservedly priced as one of this weekend's top defenses.

Value(s)
Detroit Lions ($2,700, MIN 22.25 IP, DET +1.5) - Minnesota's offense has been tough on opposing defenses.  But Detroit's defense has been prone to the big play, and could be a high value given their relatively low price.

Sleeper(s)
Dallas Cowboys ($2,500, LAR 21 IP, DAL -6) - A West coast team traveling East for a 1pm game coupled with an inexperienced quarterback (albeit one that has showed great poise early on) could spell good sleeper potential for the Cowboys' defense that has done a good job of getting after the quarterback.