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Spreads and Over/Under's as of Thursday night.
Baltimore @ Jacksonville (O/U 39.5, BAL -3.5)
NY Giants @ Philadelphia (O/U 42, PHI -6)
Houston @ New England (O/U 44, NE -14)
Atlanta @ Detroit (O/U 50.5, ATL -3)
Dener @ Buffalo (O/U 40, DEN -3)
Pittsburgh @ Chicago (O/U 44, PIT -7)
Miami @ NY Jets (O/U 43, MIA -6)
Cleveland @ Indianapolis (O/U 41, CLE -1.5)
New Orleans @ Carolina (O/U 46.5, CAR -5.5)
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (O/U 41, MIN -2)
Seattle @ Tennessee (O/U 42.5, TEN -3)
Kansas City @ LA Chargers (O/U 47.5, KC -3)
Cincinnati @ Green Bay (O/U 46, GB -9)
Oakland @ Washington (O/U 54.5, OAK -3)
Tom Brady ($7,700, 29 IP, NE -14) - He's got a similar matchup to what he had last week (in which he feasted for nearly 34 fantasy points), where the Patriots have a high implied point total and are heavy favorites.
I'm riding the Brady-Gronk correlation train for the same reasons I did last week, and expecting similar results.
Derek Carr ($6,800, 28.75 IP, OAK -3) - Perhaps a more affordable option, Derek Carr draws a great matchup against the Redskins. Carr has less upside than Brady amidst rising point totals, but a close game actually bods well for Carr.
Oakland's QB1 production has some nice correlation with its receivers, which makes the Raiders a cheaper stacking option than the Patriots, but still with some nice upside should they put up big numbers.
Kirk Cousins ($6,100, 25.75 IP, WAS +3) - On the flip side of that game, Kirk Cousins also could be a valuable buy-low option at QB. Cousins hasn't been very productive so far this year, but with a pretty good implied point total, he could be a nice play if he's able to right the Washington offensive ship.
$6,100 is a really good price for Cousins, and I'm not scared away by the Redskins as 3-point underdogs, as Cousins is usually at his best in narrow losses.
Tyrod Taylor ($4,900, 18.5 IP, BUF +3) - The Bills' low implied point total is a bit concerning, as the team would need to get up around 25 point to give Taylor a real chance of topping 20 fantasy points. But $4.9K is an obscenely low price for Taylor.
As a QB who offers value as a passer and a thrower, Taylor could be worth 4x his value if the Bills' offense can outperform their projection.
None/Le'Veon Bell (I guess?) - None of the top-tier running backs really blow me away this weekend. Le'Veon Bell has been a huge disappointment, and I only mention him because I trust that he is still good and $8.8K is a price that won't stick around if he is able to bounce back. Yes, Kareem Hunt has been very good, but he's got to fall back to Earth at some point right? The Chargers are the toughest defense against running backs, so at $8K I'm a little nervous that it's this week. Ajayi and Gordon are questionable, McCoy draws a tough matchup, and as much as I want to like Ty Montgomery, $6,900 is just too high of a price for him. Look, I'm sure at least one of the aforementioned guys will have a big week this week, I just don't see anything that makes me super confident in singling out one or two of them as the guy I expect to go off. I'm probably saving most of my big spending for other positions.
Jonathan Stewart ($4,700, 26 IP, CAR -5.5) - Don't look now, but the Panthers are sitting at 26 implied points. Stewart is drastically underpriced for such a juicy matchup. Cam Newton is listed as questionable, which is something to keep an eye on, as his absence could hurt Stewart in my opinion. But if Newton plays and the Panters' implied point total remains high, I like Stewart who has really great upside when the Panthers top 25 points.
Darren Sproles ($3,900, 24 IP, PHI -6) - There's nothing about this matchup that screams huge upside with Sproles, but we just know that Sproles does have this boom potential as a key runner, receiver, and returner for the Eagles. Running is arguably Sproles least appealing skillset, and he garnered a respectable 10 carries last week while supposed lead back LaGarette Blount was shut out. If Sproles is the feature back this week against the Giants, he has nice sleeper potential at only $3.9K.
Antonio Brown ($9,000, 25.5 IP, PIT -7) - Of that foursome of perennial elite receivers (Brown, Green, Jones, Beckham), Brown has really been the most consistent. Beckham's health is a big question mark, Green is stuck on a terrible offense (Devil's advocate: Cincinnati isn't as bad as we think and have just had two tough matchups to open the season and Green will bounce back against Green Bay), and Julio Jones has been pretty good. Brown will get plenty of targets (11 in both weeks), the matchup is good but not great, but the price is really what has me excited for AB. He's down $400 from last week and sitting at a fairly reasonable price point such that he could triple his worth if he can find a way to be more efficient given his high usage.
Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree ($7,100/$7,400, 28.75 IP, OAK -3) - I don't love them as independent plays, as they are both a little pricey. But if you're playing Derek Carr, you have to play at least one of these guys and can should probably be playing both. There is some great correlation between Oakland wide receivers and between receivers and quarterback.
He's listed as questionable, but I actually like Amari Cooper a little better than Crabtree. Cooper got 13 targets in week 1.
Rashard Higgins ($4,000, 21.25 IP, CLE -1.5) - Cleveland opening as favorites? Buy, buy, buy! Not really, it's not like their implied point total is particularly high. But Higgins 7 catches on 11 targets last week speaks for itself, I'm surprised he's not priced higher.
Rob Gronkowski ($6,800, 29 IP, HOU -14) - See Tom Brady above. See the correlation matrix below. Gronk is listed as questionable, so keep an eye on his status as gametime approaches.
Delanie Walker ($4,400, 22.75, TEN -3) - The Titans aren't at an overwhelming implied point total. But at 3-point favorites, Walker's upside is intriguing if the Titans can find a way to win by, say, 10 points.
Jesse James ($3,300, 25.5 IP, PIT -7) - I'm intrigued by James' upside in the 25-30 Pittsburgh point range. Also, James has a nearly linear increase in production as the Steelers' margin of victory increases.