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- LaMarcus Aldridge has been ruled out tonight for rest.
- Tyler Johnson has been upgraded from questionable to probable.
- Nikola Jokic has been downgraded from questionable to doubtful.
- Danilo Gallinari is listed as questionable due to illness.
Chicago @ Orlando (O/U 203.5, CHI -1.5)
Brooklyn @ Atlanta (O/U 220, ATL -9.5)
Charlotte @ Miami (O/U 205, MIA -4)
New York @ Milwaukee (O/U 211.5, MIL -5)
LA Clippers @ Minnesota (O/U 211, LAC -3)
Utah @ Houston (O/U 214, HOU -6.5)
Detroit @ Indiana (O/U 206.5, IND -3.5)
Toronto @ New Orleans (O/U 203.5, NO -2)
Sacramento @ San Antonio (O/U 200, SA -14.5)
Washington @ Denver (O/U 227, DEN -1)
Boston @ Golden State (O/U 222.5, GS -8)
John Wall ($10,700, 113 IP, WAS +1) - At first glance, the Washington-Denver game is a very intriguing one, as it is the rare combination of a high over/under and close spread. I like the Washington backcourt in this matchup, as both Wall and Beal have a track record of being productive in high-scoring games and close games.
I'm not as high on James Harden, as he draws a tough matchup against Utah who has a strong defense and slow pace. Curry has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the Durant injury, but his price has gone up in response. I think Antetokounmpo has a great matchup, but has way more value as a SF, as there are a number of mid- and bottom-tier PG options that I like tonight.
Dennis Schroder ($6,700, 114.75 IP, ATL -9.5) - The price is a little high on Schroder tonight, but he has a great matchup. Schroder feasts in high-scoring games and lopsided Atlanta victories, which is expected tonight against the lowly Nets.
Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap (see PF section) are other options to consider in this advantageous matchup.
Goran Dragic ($7,200, 104.5 IP, MIA -4) - Injuries, injuries, injuries. Tyler (-0.3 DKP correlation) and James Johnson (-0.19 DKP correlation) are both listed as questionable, which should increase Dragic's ball-handling duties. Additionally, a 4-point spread in favor of the Heat is pretty ideal for Dragic.
Tony Parker ($4,100, 107.25 IP, SA -14.5) - With the Spurs opening as huge 14.5-point favorites against the Kings, DFS owners might want to target Spurs' players whose production improves as the Spurs' margin of victory increases. Parker and LaMarcus Aldridge (see PF section) are the two guys I have my eye on.
Parker doesn't have huge upside these days, but if there is any night where Parker could be a nice play, tonight's expected blowout could be a decent time to take a gamble on the Frenchman.
Dante Exum ($3,300, 103.75 IP, UTA +6.5) - With George Hill listed as questionable tonight (due to toe soreness, which caused him to miss a month of action earlier this year) and Shelvin Mack ruled out, Exum could be a nice sleeper play tonight in a game that could be fairly high-scoring. Keep an eye on Mack and Hill's health moving, because Exum has flashed some decent upside recently and could be on the verge of becoming a very relevant fantasy option if his playing time increases.
Bradley Beal ($7,800, 113 IP, WAS +1) - As mentioned in the PG/John Wall section, I really like the Washington backcourt tonight. Beal and Wall also have decent correlation (+0.19), so I think they are pretty good duo to try to leverage in tournament play.
Dion Waiters ($6,300, 104.5 IP, MIA -4) - Similar to Dragis (see PG section), Waiters figures to benefit from injuries. He has a -0.25 correlation with questionable Tyler Johnson. Additionally, Waiters is far more productive in Miami victories, which is more likely than not tonight as Miami opens as 4-point favorites.
Rodney Hood ($4,700, 103.75 IP, UTA +6.5) - Hood has been a recurring feature as a SG sleeper. His price has risen a little, but continues to stay under the $5K mark.
Hood also has a rather optimal production pattern for tonight's matchup, in that he is more productive in losing efforts but also has fairly steep increasing production as the Jazz' point total rises.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800, 108.25 IP, MIL -5) - Ok, I left Antetokounmpo out of the PG section because there is a lot of depth at PG tonight. But I do think Giannis has a great matchup tonight, as the Bucks' implied point total is on the high side and they open as moderate favorites, both good indicators for a strong night from Giannis.
Wilson Chandler ($6,800)/Danilo Gallinari ($6,000, 114 IP, DEN -1) - Both Chandler and Gallinari tend to have increasing production as the Nuggets' point total rises. They do however display somewhat different tendencies versus the spread. Chandler is more productive in losses while Gallinari is more productive in wins.
As the charts suggest, Jokic is clearly the guy to own in Denver, but he is listed as questionable due to illness, which has me a bit concerned about his already volatile production. Of the two forwards, I like Gallinari a little more, as he is better in Denver wins, is at a more competitive price, and has a stronger negative correlation with Jokic (-0.25) which could be advantageous if Jokic is either ruled out or limited in minutes.
Dion Waiters - See SG section.
Sam Dekker ($3,500, 110.25 IP, HOU -6.5) - Ryan Anderson is listed as doubtful tonight, which would figure to open up a starting role for Sam Dekker. The matchup is tough, but we did see Dekker put up a career-high 30 points against a usually-stingy Memphis team in January when Anderson was injured.
Anthony Davis ($10,200, 102.75 IP, NO -2) - Towns is probably a decent option tonight, but I'm lukewarm on him, simply because he doesn't perform particularly well in games in which the Timberwolves lose. MIN +3 isn't a huge spread to overcome, but I'm more fearful of the Timberwolves losing by double digits than I am confident in their ability to win by 5 points.
Cousins is also a guy not to trust with an unfavorable spread, which isn't the case tonight, but I'm simply not high on Cousins because he has yet to flash tremendous upside since joining the Pelicans. And I'm not sure the Pelicans' implied point total is high enough to warrant gambling on Cousins to break out tonight. Instead, Davis is very stable against the spread and point total (meaning we shouldn't expect much of a production drop-off if the Pelicans fail to top 100 points. Plus, $10.2K is actually a pretty good price for Davis.
Paul Millsap ($7,700, 114.75 IP, ATL -9.5) - Like Dennis Schroder (see PG section), Paul Millsap figures to benefit from a game that is expected to be high-scoring and a substantial Hawks win. Millsap also makes for a decent stack with Schroder, as they have a modest-but-positive +0.16 DKP correlation.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,500, 107.25 IP, SA -14.5) - With a huge 14.5-point opening line, Aldridge, like Tony Parker (see PG section) is a good option. They also could make for a decent stack given Parker and Aldridge's modest +0.16 DKP correlation.
Wilson Chandler - See SF section.
Anthony Davis ($10,200, 102.75 IP, NO -2) - See PF section.
Paul Millsap - See PF section.
Nene Hilario ($3,600, 110.25 IP, HOU -6.5) - With Motrezl Harrell having fallen out of the rotation, Nene is the go-to backup center. With Utah's power frontcourt duo of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, I'm expecting Nene to get a lot of minutes off the bench, perhaps even to play alongside Clint Capela (I think Sam Dekker will have a hard time defending and rebounding against the stronger Favors).