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Oklahoma City @ Orlando (O/U 217.5, OKC -6)
Atlanta @ Philadelphia (O/U 209.5, ATL -1)
Milwaukee @ Boston (O/U 210.5, BOS -8)
Miami @ New York (O/U 209, MIA -3)
Charlotte @ Toronto (O/U 203.5, TOR -6.5)
Indiana @ Memphis (O/U 196, MEM -5)
Dallas @ New Orleans (O/U 205.5, NO -4.5)
Golden State @ San Antonio (O/U 208.5, SA -4.5)
Utah @ Sacramento (O/U 294, UTA -7.5)
Washington @ LA Clippers (O/U 220, LAC -6)
Russell Westbrook ($13,200, 111.75 IP, OKC -6) - It's a good matchup for Westbrook, who improves drastically when the Thunder win and their implied point total climbs.
However, I will say, $13.2K is an absurd price, but could be worth it if you think you can hit on a couple low-budget players tonight.
Chris Paul ($8,100, 113 IP, LAC -6) - If you're looking for a top-tier PG at a more affordable price than Westbrook, Chris Paul could be a good option. $8.1K is a really good price for Paul.
And although his production relative to the spread and Clippers' point total is somewhat random due to some odd outliers, it would appear that Paul stands to have good upside in a game with a favorable line and implied point total.
Isaiah Thomas ($8,000, 109.25 IP, BOS -8) - Isaiah Thomas also fits the bill of a top-tier PG at a pretty competitive price.
I think Paul for $8.1K is a better price than Thomas for $8K, as some of Thomas' high prices were a result of increased value due to Avery Bradley's injury. Nonetheless, I still think Thomas is a good value tonight, as he draws a favorable matchup, in which he is typically slightly more productive.
Patty Mills ($4,000, 106.5 IP, SA -4.5) - Even though he comes off the bench, Patty Mills is typically given a comparable amount of minutes to starter Tony Parker. Parker isn't a bad play either at $4K, but he just has some games where he flat out doesn't shoot. Mills on the other hand is a more aggressive shooter and just seems to be more involved in the flow of the Spurs' offense. The Spurs' implied point total and line are good indicators for Mills (and Parker).
Tim Frazier ($3,700, 105 IP, NO -4.5) - I've been burned by Frazier before, but I'm not quite ready to give up on him as a starter. He has legit 30+ DKP potential if given the opportunity.
None/Jrue Holiday ($7,000, 105 IP, NO -4.5) - Both DeMar DeRozan ($8.7K) and Bradley Beal ($7.8K) are overpriced in my opinion.
Beal doesn't even have a good matchup. Toronto has a decent matchup, but I'm starting to realize how limited DeRozan's upside is. He provides so little value through assists, rebounds, and defense, and his scoring is so free throw-oriented, that it really limits his upside. Take Monday night for example, where DeRozan put up 42.5 fantasy points on 36 points. Paul George, on the other hand, put up 58.25 fantasy points on 37 points last night. I hope you see my point.
Avery Bradley ($5,700, 109.25 IP, BOS -8) - Simply a low-price alert on Avery Bradley.
Boston has a good matchup tonight, but Bradley's production is so scattershot (see charts in Isaiah Thomas section), it would feel like a stretch to say that the matchup is cause for huge optimism on Bradley. Bradley's ceiling is always pretty high, but with tonight's low price, I would say his floor his higher than usual.
Norman Powell ($3,700, 105 IP, TOR -6.5) - Pay attention to the health status of starting SF DeMarre Carroll. Carroll has been sidelined with a back injury recently, and is listed as a game time decision. If Carroll can't go, Powell figures to be the go-to SG/SF off the bench, and he is usually pretty productive at the offensive end when given enough minutes. Powell doesn't have much upside if Carroll plays.
Gordon Hayward ($7,400, 100.75 IP, UTA -7.5) - I think all of the top 3 SFs (not including Kevin Durant) are flawed tonight. I don't love Kawhi Leonard at $9.9K. Returning decent value and getting to 50 DKP is a bit of a stretch for Leonard, and returning good value and getting to 60+ DKP seems very unlikely.
Antetokounmpo is reasonably priced at $9.7K, and I think him getting to 50+ DKP is just as likely as Leonard doing so. But Giannis' production is subject to risk at MIL +8, and thus I'm hesitant to bank on him.
Of the top-tier SF options, I like Paul George the best, and his price ($8.2K) is down, even after scoring 58.25 fantasy points (at nearly 7 DKP/$1K value) last night. But with a low implied point total (95.5) against a stifling Memphis defense and a pre-game line of IND +5, I'm not terribly high on PG13's upside tonight.
And then we get to Gordon Hayward, who at $7.4K might be the most reasonably priced of the top 4 small forwards. Hayward is listed as questionable, which is something to monitor as the day progresses. But he has a favorable matchup from a spread standpoint, and although Sacramento and Utah both play at a snail's pace, the Jazz' implied point total is enough for optimism surrounding Hayward and Rudy Gobert.
Carmelo Anthony ($6,700, 103 IP, NY +3) - Another low-price alert, Melo at $6.7K is a steal.
Melo also has a huge home/away split, averaging 7.2 DKP more at home than on the road. While I'd like to see a higher implied point total to have great confidence in Anthony, the spread isn't that concerning. As long as the Knicks can keep it close Melo has nice value upside, especially at such a low price.
Andre Roberson ($3,700, 111.75 IP, OKC -6) - Roberson is a bit of a hit-or-miss player, and it's not super easy to predict when either is coming. But a reasonably high implied point total and favorable line make banking on Roberson a little more palatable. I think he only makes sense if you are playing Westbrook, as they have a high correlation (+0.41) and could make for a strong pair if the Thunder go off tonight against the Magic.
Norman Powell - See SG section.
Anthony Davis ($10,800, 105 IP, NO -4.5) - I think tonight is a good night for AD, mostly on account of Cousins' recent injury status (questionable tonight). If Cousins plays, I'm almost inclined to favor him over Davis, as he is very productive in wins, and has increasing production against rising point totals. But if Cousins sits, Davis stands a solid chance to the be the top performing PF/C (Rudy Gobert could challenge him at center).
Carmelo Anthony - See SF section.
Taj Gibson ($4,100, 111.75 IP, OKC -6) - There aren't any low-price PFs that I'm super confident in. While Gibson's production has dipped since joining the Thunder, he has flashed some 25+ DKP potential, and $4.1K feels like a slightly deflated price.
Anthony Davis - See PF section.
Rudy Gobert ($8,600, 100.75 IP, UTA -7.5) - Rudy Gobert keeps producing, and his price keeps rising. I'm dangerously close to jumping off the bandwagon, but it seems like he really benefits from the Derrick Favors injury. $8.6K is insanely high for Gobert, but he draws another pretty favorable matchup. I've got one foot off the Gobert bandwagon tonight, and even if he has another 50+ DKP night, if his prices rises any more I might be forced to abandon ship.
DeAndre Jordan ($6,800, 113 IP, LAC -6) - I don't love many of the mid-tier center options tonight. But I am quite high on Jordan tonight, who is reasonably priced.
I think Jordan's real value upside relates to the Clippers' high implied point total and favorable opening line. If the Clippers can approach 120 points and cover the spread, Jordan could be in for a big night.
Marcin Gortat ($4,300, 107 IP, WAS +6) - I'm also not high on any of the low-tier centers. Gortat poses the most optimism among this group, simply due to his low price (although it has been appropriately low since the return of Ian Mahimi), but more importantly his stability against the spread and Washington point total.