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Detroit @ New York (O/U 207.5, DET -2)
Orlando @ Toronto (O/U 209, TOR -8.5)
Cleveland @ San Antonio (O/U 211.5, SA -5)
Oklahoma City @ Dallas (O/U 206, OKC -1)
Memphis @ Sacramento (O/U 198.5, MEM -6.5)
New Orleans @ Utah (O/U 200, UTA -7)
None - I'm convinced that tonight is not a good matchup for Russell Westbrook, the top-priced player in tonight's slate. $12.5K is a reasonable price for Westbrook, but at only 103.5 implied points and an OKC -1 spread, I think he lacks his usual upside. If the implied point total and spread play out, I think it is unlikely that Westbrook is able to be worth much more than 5 DKP/$1K.
Ish Smith ($5,000, 103.75 IP, DET -2) - I was high on Smith last Friday, in which he failed to reach 10 DKP. I'm not quite ready to give up on Smith, as Friday's loss to Orlando was a blowout and threw the Pistons' rotation out of sorts early in the contest. Smith draws a favorable matchup from a spread standpoint, and could benefit even further if the Pistons are able to cover the spread on the road against the lowly Knicks.
Patty Mills ($4,000, 108.25 IP, SA -5) - Even though Mills will be coming off the bench, I still like his potential to reach 6-7x value tonight. In the last 5 games, Mills has averaged 22 minutes, and has produced at just under a 1 DKP/minute rate. I think given a favorable spread and one of the higher implied point totals of the night, Mills could be a good sleeper play.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,600, 108.75 IP, TOR -8.5) - On a night where SG depth is very thin, DeRozan's value should play up. There are also very few matchups with high implied point totals or large spreads (the Raptors have the largest of each), but DeRozan, who excels in such matchups has as favorable a matchup as any in tonight's slate. I think DeRozan could have a big night, and his value should be relatively high given such thin talent around the league tonight, especially at SG.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,200, 103.75 IP, DET -2) - KCP is one of the streakier players in the league, possessing legit 40+ DKP potential, but also with a penchant for putting up the occasional sub-20 DKP game.
There are a couple things to like about tonight's matchup and recent roster changes in favor of Caldwell-Pope. First, KCP doesn't need a huge blowout victory. He reaches nearly full production in close Detroit victories.
But for me, Caldwell-Pope's near-future upside comes from a roster shakeup that would appear to be to his benefit. The Pistons have moved Ish Smith and Tobias Harris into the starting lineup, who correlate with KCP at levels of +0.37 and +0.32 respectively, and have moved Reggie Jackson to the bench who has a -0.13 correlation with KCP. I think these are all good indicators for Caldwell-Pope tonight and as the season winds to a close.
Rodney Hood ($3,900, 103.5 IP, UTA -7) - Let's first start with the bad: Hood hasn't reached 20 DKP in his last 6 games. As a result his price is way down from where it has been at times this year.
I'm also looking at his stat lines from the past 3 games, in which he's only averaged 13.4 DKP/game. Although his production has been abysmal, he has averaged 20 minutes in those games, and has taken an average of 5.67 shots, and 3.67 triples per game, but has not been hitting at a high field goal percentage. It would seem that if Hood can continue his reasonably high usage (for a low-budget guard), but simply make more of his shots, add a few rebounds, and pick up a couple less-likely steals/blocks/assists, I could envision a scenario in which Hood could have 6+ DKP/$1K value.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500, 108.25 IP, SA -5) - LeBron James is at a better price point than Leonard all else equal. But I think James' upside is limited, as Leonard is one of the premiere game-altering defenders in the league (and figures to guard LBJ for most of the night) and due to a relatively low implied point total and an unfavorable spread, both of which tend to limit his upside.
Leonard is a little overpriced, and it is thus that I might seek other mid-tier options at SF.
But if you have room to spend, and SF is the position you want to do it at, I do like Leonard's upside more than that of James. Leonard has pretty stable production at all margins of victory, but he does peak a little bit in close wins. He also has increasing production with a rising Spurs' point total, so Leonard could be a nice upside play if you want to bank on a scenario in which the game is higher-scoring than expected.
P.J. Tucker ($4,400, 108.75 IP, TOR -8,5) - The key injury status to pay attention to for Tucker is that of DeMarre Carroll. Carroll is listed as a game time decision, but rotowire.com seems to think that Carroll won't play tonight. If that is the case, I think Tucker has good value upside, as he totaled 32.75 DKP with Carroll on the bench in Saturday's game against the Mavericks. If we look back to Tucker's production relative to point total and spread with the Suns, it would appear that tonight's matchup against the Magic is a good one for Tucker if he gets the start.
Tucker also gets some value from his defense, which is a nice safeguard against low production levels if the game is lower-scoring than expected.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($4,200, 101.75 IP, NY +2) - Kuzminskas has a lot of the same upside as Tucker, and his value is also heavily dependent upon the health status of incumbent starter Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo is listed as a game time decision, however unlike DeMarre Carroll, rotowire is predicting that Anthony will start. However, if the Knicks decide to not have Anthony suit up, Kuzminskas could be in line for a high-value night, as he has averaged nearly 27 DKP on 34 minutes in the last two games, both of which Melo sat out.
NOT DeMarcus Cousins ($9,600, 96.5 IP, NO +7) - This is a bad matchup for Cousins who, as I've noted time and time again, is a risk in games in which his team loses and games that are low-scoring.
Cousins' sub-$10K price is tempting, but the matchup is just too bad to warrant playing him. He is also listed as questionable. If he doesn't play, Anthony Davis could be a viable option (although he also has limited upside in a game in which the Pelicans are expected to lose and score few points), as he and Cousins have negatively correlated since the All Star break.
Zach Randolph ($5,000, 102.5 IP, MEM -6.5) - Randolph's value is closely tied to the health status of starting Center Marc Gasol, who missed last night's game due to a minor foot injury. In that game, Randolph was a good value, putting up 29.25 fantasy points over 29 minutes. The data doesn't suggest that Gasol playing would greatly diminish Randoph's value (they have +0.02 DKP correlation), but in theory Randolph should receive a slight minute bump if Gasol sits.
P.J. Tucker - See SF section.
Pattrick Patterson ($3,400, 108.75, TOR -8.5) - I'm continuing to load up on the Toronto matchup, as it is probably the most favorable matchup in play tonight. Like Tucker, Patterson's value is really dependent upon the health status of DeMarre Carroll. If Carroll can't go, Patterson becomes a decent option as a near-minimum priced forward. He has topped 20 minutes in each of his last 3 games, topping 20 DKP in two of his last three.
Rudy Gobert ($8,000, 103.5 IP, UTA -7) - $8K isn't the best price for Gobert.
But, I've expressed my great concern for DeMarcus Cousins, and my minor concern for Anthony Davis. Gobert has been in top form lately, topping 40 DKP in 5 straight games, topping 50 DKP in 3 of those games, and topping 60 DKP once. Tonight is a good matchup for Gobert, who is best suited for Jazz wins, and has increasing production as the Jazz point total rises.
Gobert also figures to continue to benefit from the injury to Derrick Favors, with whom Gobert has a -023 DKP correlation.
Zach Randolph - See PF section.
Kosta Koufos ($3,700, 96 IP, SAC +6.5) - It's a really bad matchup for Koufos, from an implied point total and spread standpoint. And there is some uncertainty amidst the Kings' frountcourt, with the emergence of Skal Labissiere and Georgios Pappagiannis. But Koufos is expected to get the start, and has shown the ability to reach the high 20's in fantasy production.