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Charlotte @ Orlando (O/U 206.5, CHA -5)
Indiana @ Boston (O/U 206.5, BOS -7)
Philadelphia @ Oklahoma City (O/U 218.5, OKC -11.5)
Detroit @ Chicago (O/U 199, DET -1.5)
Atlanta @ Washington (O/U 215.5, WAS -7)
Cleveland @ Denver (O/U 227, CLE -3)
Milwaukee @ Sacramento (O/U 200, MIL -5)
New York @ Utah (O/U 202.5, UTA -12)
Apologies for the late post, we've been pretty busy here at Advanced Sports Analytics ramping up for baseball season, which starts a week from Sunday. Today's DFS Daily will be a rapid-fire analysis of some of the key injuries around the league (there are a lot of them) and a discussion of who stands to benefit in tonight's action as a result.
GTD: Jahlil Okafor
Beneficiary: Richaun Holmes ($6,200, 103.5 IP, PHI +11.5) - If Okafor does play, $6,200 is a steep price for a bench player. If Okafor sits, which rotowire.com is predicting, Holmes has tremendous upside. The opening line isn't favorable for Holmes, but if the Sixers can keep it reasonably close Holmes could have great value. He can get fantasy points in a variety of ways: scoring, rebounding, defense, the occasional 3-pointer, and he has topped 4 assists in back-to-back games.
OUT: Dwyane Wade
Beneficiary: Robin Lopez ($4,100, 98.75 IP, CHI +1.5) - This is a peculiar one, as Wade and Lopez play completely different positions. But Lopez has a moderate negative correlation with Wade (-0.22), and has performed well since Wade went down with injury, averaging 32+ DKP since Wade fractured his elbow.
Lopez is game-time decision himself, so keep an eye on that. But if he plays, Lopez could be a good low-budget option at Center.
OUT: Paul Millsap
Beneficiary: Ersan Ilyasova ($5,500, 104.25 IP, ATL +7) - Millsap doesn't have any strong negative correlates, so my conventional approach for targeting injury beneficiaries isn't very useful here.
And Ilyasova (who is playing for his third team this year) doesn't show up on the Hawks' correlation chart due to his lack of games played with Atlanta. But Ilyasova should get the start at PF tonight, and in the last two games without Millsap, Ilyasova is averaging a modest 29.75 DKP. For a comparable price, I like Richaun Holmes a lot more, as I think he has really great upside if Okafor sits. But Ilyasova could be a viable option at PF/C if Okafor plays, cutting into Holmes upside considerably.
OUT: Danilo Gallinari/GTD: Wilson Chandler
Beneficiaries: Jamal Murray ($4,500)/Nikola Jokic ($10,000, 112 IP, DEN +3) - With SF Gallinari ruled out for the 4th game in a row and SF/PF Wilson Chandler potentially missing his 5th game in a row, Will Barton ($7,500, two 50+ DKP games since Gallinari injury) and Juancho Hernangomez ($4,500, averaging 26.5 minutes since Chanlder injury) figure to be very popular plays in what figures to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game. I don't think these two are bad plays, but I do think there is some value to taking a contrarian approach to a thin Denver team. Barton and Hernangomez's prices have been rising in response to the Gallinari/Chandler injuries, and while the price spike has been warranted so far, I'm intrigued by Jokic and Murray, both of whom have had falling prices since the injuries. Although the recent stretch has favored Barton and Hernangomez, Jokic and Murray have a good track record of performing well when Gallinari and Chandler's role decreases. Jokic has a negative correlation with Gallinari and Chandler of -0.23 and -0.14 respectively, Murray a negative correlation of -0.38 with Gallinari and no correlation with Chandler.
OUT: Derrick Favors
Beneficiaries: Joe Johnson ($4,000)/Rudy Gobert ($7,700, 107.25 IP, UTA -12) - Favors has been ruled out for his 8th consecutive game. As a result, Joe Johnson has been inserted into the starting lineup at SF (Gordon Hayward moved up to PF) and in this stretch has sat pretty comfortably at about 30 minutes per game and 20+ DKP. He has yet to top 30 DKP in Favors' absence, so his upside appears pretty limited. But I see him as a good low-risk play at a low price point. I like his chances of being worth 5+ DKP/$1K tonight. Johnson has a -0.28 DKP correlation with Favors. With Favors sidelined, Rudy Gobert has been single-handedly manning the paint for the Jazz. In Favors' absence, Gobert has topped 50 DKP twice and has averaged 43.5 DKP in 6 games. He has a -0.23 DKP with Favors.