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Dallas @ Washington (O/U 207.5, WAS -7.5)
Charlotte @ Indiana (O/U 203, IND -2.5)
Minnesota @ Boston (O/U 209.5, BOS -6)
Utah @ Detroit (O/U 199.5, UTA -3.5)
New Orleans @ Miami (O/U 205.5, MIA -6.5)
Memphis @ Chicago (O/U 201.5, MEM -2)
LA Lakers @ Houston (O/U 235, HOU -17)
Portland @ San Antonio (O/U 208.5, SA -11)
Sacramento @ Phoenix (O/U 221.5, PHO -5.5)
Milwaukee @ LA Clippers (O/U 209, LAC -8)
James Harden ($12,600, 126 IP, HOU -17) - Great matchup tonight for Harden, who is a perennial stud. He should be a top producer tonight, but I'm not super high on his potential value. $12.6K is a pretty high price for Harden, whose production does tend to drop a little as games become non-competitive.
Eric Bledsoe ($8,400, 113.5 IP, PHO - 5.5) - I'm very high on Eric Bledsoe tonight. His price is a little elevated, but for good reason. His production rises dramatically as Phoenix's margin of victory and point total rises. I think he is an excellent option at either guard position.
George Hill ($6,000, 101.5 IP, UTA -3.5) - Hill's price is about right, maybe even slightly below average. The Jazz' implied point total is ideal for Hill tonight, and his production peaks when the Jazz win by about 8+ points.
Also, Shelvin Mack is listed as questionable, if he fails to suit up that's great news for Hill, who has a huge negative correlation with Mack (-0.64).
Patty Mills ($5,300, 109.75 IP, SA -11) - The health status of Tony Parker is the deciding factor for Mills. Parker (questionable, -0.44 DKP correlation with Mills) would figure to start over Mills if healthy, and $5.3K would be a lot to pay for a backup. But if Parker (and questionable PG Dejounte Murray) is out, Mills has a pretty good matchup, as he tends to be more productive as the Spurs margin of victory grows.
J.J. Barea ($3,300, 100 IP, DAL +7.5) - Barrea has been injured for so much of the season that we have very little data on him. But there is some evidence that might suggest he performs better in Dallas losses.
But I highlight him as a sleeper simply because tonight will be his 4th game back from injury, and his minutes have been trending up since his return. He has yet to top 15 DKP since returning to the floor, but prior to injury Barea was usually good for 20 DKP and at times flashed 30+ DKP potential. I imagine that at some point he'll return to his full role and usual production, and when he does I expect his salary to climb over $4K. He is a good buy-low candidate until then.
James Harden/Eric Bledsoe - See PG section.
Dwyane Wade ($6,200, 99.75 IP, CHI +2) - The Bulls' implied point total is a little concerning for Wade, as he does tend to do better as the Bulls score more points. But the relationship between his production and the Bulls' point total isn't as steep as that of Jimmy Butler. I highlight Wade today on account of his low price.
And his tendency to be productive in close games, whether the Bulls are on the winning or losing side of the ledger.
Rodney Hood ($4,700, 101.5 IP, UTA -3.5) - I've highlighted Hood as a sleeper in the past, as his price was low due to his return from injury. Then he performed well and his price crept towards and eventually over $5K. After back-to-back duds, Hood is back below $5K, which is a good price for him, as he flashes legit 30+ DKP potential. He has done so twice in the past 5 games.
None - I'm not that high on any of the top SF options. Leonar ($9.8K) is priced too high, even amidst his hot streak. Him reaching 50 DKP doesn't seem super likely, and the probability of him having a high-value night at say 60+ DKP feels very low.
Antetokounmpo ($9.6K) is more reasonably priced, but with a modest-at-best implied point total and the Bucks opening as 8-point underdogs, I see him as a somewhat risky play.
And as discussed briefly in the SG/Wade section, Jimmy Butler is better suited for high-scoring Bulls' wins. Which tonight is not expected to be. If there were a top-tier SF option I'd bet on, it's probably Paul George. Although his price is a little high and the Pacers' implied point total a little low for me to be very confident in him.
Dion Waiter ($7,100, 106 IP, MIA -6.5) - I think Waiters could very well end up being one of the more valuable SF options tonight. He draws a good matchup, as he typically excels in Heat victories, and his production increases as the Heat's point total rises.
Trevor Ariza ($5,100, 126 IP, HOU -17) - The underpricing of Trevor Ariza continues. He's not as low as the $4.3-4.5K price range he was in last week, but $5.1K still feels low for Ariza, especially given such a juicy matchup against the Lakers.
Ariza could very well be the second most productive Rocket tonight behind Harden.
Stanley Johnson ($3,200, 98 IP, DET +3.5) - There isn't much to go off of in support of Johnson. But his role has been increasing lately, and his minutes are now in the high teens/low 20's. At a near-minimum price, Johnson does have some upside.
Anthony Davis ($10,400, 99.5 IP, NO +6.5) - Cousins and Towns are both susceptible to risk in games which their respective teams lose by close to double digits. At NO +6.5 and MIN +6, I'm staying away from both. Davis on the other hand is more stable in losing efforts and low point totals (although tonight's matchup is far from ideal for AD).
Blake Griffin ($7,900, 106.5 IP, LAC -8) - $7.9K is a pretty good price for Griffin who has legit 50+ DKP potential.
On top of his low price, Griffin benefits from a matchup in which the Clippers are substantial favorites and have a decent chance of reaching 110 points.
Trevor Ariza - See SF section.
Nikola Mirotic ($4,000, 101.75 IP, CHI +2) - Starting PF Bobby Portis hasn't been as productive as some might have hoped. In what is expected to be a close game Mirotic figures to top 20 minutes, and he is coming off a 41.25 DKP double-double.
Anthony Davis - See PF section.
Blake Griffin - See PF section.
Andre Drummond ($6,800, 98 IP, DET +3.5) - Let's start with the bad: Rudy Gobert is very good, and like other Centers (Towns, Cousins) Drummond has some risk in games that the Pistons lose by a significant margin. But the good: $6.8K is a very low price for Drummond.
If the Pistons can keep it close or win outright, Drummond has some nice value upside. But certainly some risk involved.