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Detroit @ Cleveland (O/U 215, CLE -8)
Oklahoma City @ Brooklyn (O/U 224.5, OKC -6)
Indiana @ New York (O/U 211, IND -3)
Portland @ New Orleans (O/U 216, NO -3.5)
Philadelphia @ Golden State (O/U 221, GS -16.5)
Russell Westbrook ($13,400, 115.25 IP, OKC -6) - It's a good matchup for Westbrook, who has been hot lately, averaging 72.2 DKP in March and topping 80 DKP twice.
You start to get into 75+ DKP territory with Westbrook when the Thunder top 110 points, and a Thunder win is generally good for Westbrook. The $13.4K price tag is huge for Westbrook, but might be warranted especially given a small slate tonight.
Reggie Jackson ($5,800, 103.5 IP, DET +8) - $5.8K is a decent price for Jackson, and this seemingly unfavorable matchup is actually a pretty good one for Jackson, who is actually pretty productive in losing efforts and through the Pistons' 95-110 scoring range.
Jeremy Lin ($5,700, 110.25 IP, BKN +6) - Similarly to Jackson, Lin for $5.7K is pretty good, especially on a 5-game night. And like Jackson, an expected Brooklyn loss is no reason to shy away from Lin, who is as productive (if not more so) in Brooklyn losses as he is in Brooklyn wins.
Ian Clark ($3,700, 118.75 IP, GS -16.5) - Clark is coming off a monster 43.25 DKP night. His night was probably aided by the resting of Stephen Curry, which will not be the case tonight. While I don't expect a 40+ DKP night from Clark, he does have some nice upside, as he is one of the Warriors' premiere "garbage time" players. If Golden State gets up big early, we could see a heavy dose of Clark, which could hopefully lead to a nice night for Clark.
Klay Thompson ($6,900, 118.75 IP, GS -16.5) - There is no elite-SG option tonight. I'm not terribly high on C.J. McCollum (or Damian Lillard for that matter), as he and Lillard's production tends to drop off in losing efforts. I'm generally a proponent of playing Thompson in games which the Warriors are expected to cruise. More so than other Warriors, Thompson's production rises dramatically when the Warriors win big compared to narrow victories or losses.
Victor Oladipo ($6,300, 115.25 IP, OKC -6) - Oladipo doesn't have quite the rising production relative to spread and point total that Westbrook has. Nonetheless, he should benefit some from a high-scoring game, and he makes a nice stacking option with Westbrook due to correlation (+0.25).
Ian Clark - See PG section.
LeBron James ($11,000, 111.25 IP, CLE -8) - Like Westbrook, James also benefits significantly from high-scoring games and modest Cleveland victories.
James has also been on fire since the All Star break, recording 3 double-doubles and 4 triple-doubles in the 8 games since the break. Both Westbrook and James figure to be studs tonight, but I think I like Westbrook's value a little more, even at such a huge price tag.
Carmelo Anthony ($7,400, 104 IP, NY +3) - Melo has pretty drastic home/away splits, averaging nearly 7 DKP more at home. I like Anthony more than Porzingis ($7.2K) tonight, as Carmelo is a little better positioned to have good production even if the Knicks lose.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,000, 102.25 IP, PHI +16.5) - The Frenchman's sleeper value is almost completely due to the health status of Robert Covington, who has just been ruled out for tonight's game against the Warriors. Luwawu-Cabarrot got the start Sunday in place of the injured Covington, and put nearly 27 DKP in 27 minutes. He also put up a respectable 18.75 DKP in 33 minutes the night before, a game in which Covington played. I think TLC is a great option as a minimum-priced SF.
Anthony Davis ($10,500, 109.75 IP, NO -3.5)/DeMarcus Cousins ($9,600) - I'm going to go against the grain: I like Cousins more than Davis tonight. Cousins has been a bit of a fantasy disappointment since joining the Pelicans. One issue has been his inability to avoid foul trouble. In his last 6 games he has reached 5 personal fouls all but once. Against the perimeter-oriented Trailblazers, I'm more optimistic that Cousins can stay out of foul trouble. Also in support of Cousins-over-Davis is how they perform relative to their teams' point total and the spread. Let's take a look at Davis' relative production compared to Cousins' relative production (during his time with the Kings, there is just too little data on Cousins with the Pelicans).
Davis and Cousins are really two very different performers relative to spread and point total. While Davis is the more consistent producer in low-scoring and losing efforts, he doesn't tend to increase his production much when the Pelicans go off and/or win. Cousins on the other hand is a bit of a liability when his team doesn't put up a lot of points and/or loses, but when they put up a large point total and/or win he gains a ton of value. It is fairly speculative, but I think tonight's matchup is quite favorable for Cousins, and while it is still a good matchup for Davis, AD lacks the upside that Cousins have if the game holds true to the opening line and over/under, and especially if the Pelicans beat the spread and top their implied point total. For $900 less, I like Cousins' value tonight.
Carmelo Anthony - See SF section.
Thaddeus Young ($4,300, 107 IP, IND -3) - His production has been quite low lately, but the minutes have been there for Young, who has topped 30 minutes in 2 of his last 3. But because he hasn't been producing lately, his price is way down. I mention Young simply as a buy-low option in the $4-5K range.
Anthony Davis/DeMarcus Cousins - See PF section.
Enes Kanter ($5,600, 115.25 IP, OKC -6)/Steven Adams ($5,000) - I think Kanter and Adams pose good value tonight in a really good matchup for the Thunder. And both are at pretty good prices, Adams probably a little better than Kanter.
Kanter definitely has better upside than Adams, Adams has less risk.
They both perform similarly versus the spread and the Thunder point total.
And both have very little correlation with Westbrook (Kanter +0.06, Adams +0.12). Who is a better option? Your guess is as good as mine. I think Kanter is probably a better tournament play, Adams better for cash games.