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Chicago @ Charlotte (O/U 199.5, CHA -7)
Dallas @ Toronto (O/U 195.5, TOR -4)
Washington @ Minnesota (O/U 214.5, MIN -1)
Milwaukee @ Memphis (O/U 199.5, MEM -4)
Atlanta @ San Antonio (O/U 200.5, SA -6)
LA Clippers @ Utah (O/U 201.5, UTA -1)
LA Lakers @ Denver (O/U 230, DEN -12.5)
Orlando @ Sacramento (O/U 207, EVEN)
Chris Paul ($8,200, 100.25, LAC +1) - Giannis draws an unfavorable matchup, and John Wall has a decent matchup. But I really like Paul for a low $8.2K.
His price is likely driven down by the tough matchup against the Jazz. But, the Jazz will be missing Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert is listed as questionable, and George Hill is expected to play but has been battling a toe injury for what seems like the entire 2017 calendar year. Depending on how injury statuses play out, the Jazz' impenetrable defense could be short-handed tonight. And if not, Paul has shown the ability to be productive in sub-100 games as well as games.
Patty Mills ($4,400, 103.25 IP, SA -6) - With Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray out due to injury, Mills is the guy at PG for the Spurs. And he has a big negative correlation with Parker (-0.44).
The opening line of SA -6 is also favorable for Mills.
Jamal Murray ($4,100, 121.25 IP, DEN -12.5) - Murray's role has been expanding over the course of the season. The key with Murray tonight is the health status of Jameer Nelson, who is listed as questionable due to a hip flexor strain. If Nelson plays, I still think Murray has some upside, but it is certainly limited. But I think he becomes a great sleeper play if Nelson is held out (or on a minutes restriction).
Bradley Beal ($7,600, 106.75 IP, WAS +1) - DeMar DeRozan is the top priced SG, but I think there is a lot of risk around DeRozan tonight. The Dallas-Toronto game is expected to be extremely low-scoring and DeRozan has been cold as of late, scoring fewer than 30 DKP in 3 of his last 4 games. Beal on the other hand has been very solid lately, and hasn't scored fewer than 30 DKP in his last 10 games. A close game is usually good for Beal's production and if the Wizards can top 110 points Beal could be in line for a big night.
Nicolas Batum ($7,200, 103.25 IP, CHA -7) - $7.2K is a decent price for Batum, especially since there isn't a lot of elite talent at SG, and I think some of the top SF options have really tough matchups tonight. And for his price, Batum has a really great DKP distribution that seems to be equal parts low-risk and high-upside.
The opening line of CHA -7 is also good news for Batum, who has had a handful of very productive games when the Hornets win by single digits.
Jeremy Lamb ($3,500, 103.25 IP, CHA -7) - He has topped 20 minutes in each of his last 5 games, averaging 22+ DKP over that span. But his price has remained incredibly stable. Like Batum, Lamb also would benefit from a modest Hornets victory.
None - Kawhi Leonard is listed as questionable with concussion-like symptoms. Even if he does play I think there is some risk that his minutes are curtailed. Beyond this concern, $9.9K is a lot to pay for Leonard even if he were fully healthy. Antetokounmpo has a bad matchup, as he usually doesn't perform well in low-scoring games in which the Bucks lose (97.75 IP, MIL +4). And Jimmy Butler has been cold lately, and doesn't typically do well in games that the Bulls lose.
Nicolas Batum - See SG section.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,100, 107.75 IP, MIN -1) - With Wiggins (and KAT for that matter), I always suggest playing to Minnesota spread. If Minnesota are significant underdogs Wiggins becomes risky. If they are favored he becomes a much better play. The spread is very small tonight, but you rarely get games in which Minnesota is favored these days. The implied point total is pretty good for Wiggins tonight as well.
Danilo Gallinari ($6,200, 121.25 IP, DEN -12.5) - The Nuggets have a huge implied point total tonight, and thus I imagine some of their players will get a lot of play tonight. Wilson Chandler is usually my go-to Nugget in high scoring games, but with such a huge spread, I'm more optimistic about Gallinari. He is most productive when the Nuggets win by around 10 points, while Chandler is usually more productive in Nuggets' losses.
Also, Chandler is listed as questionable with a minor injury. But even questionable guys are risky for West-coast games.
Davis Bertans ($3,000, 103.25 IP, SA -6) - With LaMarcus Aldridge out and Kawhi Leonard questionable with concussion-like symptoms, Davis Bertans could factor into the Spurs rotation tonight. Especially if Leonard is held out. Bertans has a decent distribution for a minimum-priced guy, and he put up 22.75 DKP in 21 minutes in Saturday's game against the Warriors.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600, 107.75 IP, MIN -1) - Like Wiggins, Towns' best value is likely to come in a Minnesota win. Towns has more stability in low-scoring games than Wiggins
Marvin Williams ($5,900, 103.25 IP, CHA -7) - Marvin Williams has quietly been very good lately. He's put up a double-double and topped 40 DKP in three straight games, while maintaining a fairly stable price point. It appears that Frank Kaminsky will return to action tonight, which should cut into Williams' minutes a bit. But if you are inclined to ride the hot streak, Williams could be a solid play tonight.
Davis Bertans - See SF section.
Karl-Anthony Towns - See PF section.
Nikola Jokic ($10,400, 121.25 IP, DEN -12.5) - Jokic is one of the ultimate wild cards in NBA DFS. His fantasy point distribution is incredibly variable over the course of the season.
But, tonight is the ideal matchup for Jokic, as he is Denver's ultimate "plays better as the team plays better" guy. See the charts in SF/Gallinari section. If the Nuggets do indeed top 120 points and win by double-digits Jokic could be in for a big night.
DeAndre Jordan ($6,500, 100.25 IP, LAC +1) - Pay close attention to the health status of Jordan's C opponent, Rudy Gobert, tonight. Gobert is listed as questionable, and if he is held out that means that the Utah starting frontcourt (including Derrick Favors) will be sidelined for reserves. Jordan was able to feast on a thin frontcourt in Saturday's game against the Sixers, to the tune of 59.5 DKP.
Dewayne Dedmon ($3,700, 103.25 IP, SA -6) - With LaMarcus Aldridge out indefinitely, Dedmon should get more minutes as a key member of the Spurs' frontcourt. When the minutes have been there for Dedmon, he's been pretty productive as a low-tier C. In his last four games in which he's gotten 20+ minutes, Dedmon has averaged 27.3 DKP. He got 22 minutes on Saturday, the first game without Aldridge following the Spurs' monitoring of his heart condition.