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Orlando @ Charlotte (O/U 206.5, CHA -8)
Toronto @ Atlanta (O/U 201.5, ATL -2.5)
Indiana @ Milwaukee (O/U 206.5, MIL -3)
Golden State @ Minnesota (O/U 213.5, GS -5.5)
Houston @ Chicago (O/U 224, HOU -6)
Boston @ Denver (O/U 222.5, BOS -3)
Brooklyn @ Dallas (O/U 212, DAL -11.5)
Washington @ Sacramento (O/U 213.5, WAS -8)
James Harden ($11,600, 115 IP, HOU -6) - Harden's production is pretty stable across varying spread and point totals. He is one of the safer elite fantasy options.
John Wall ($10,000, 110.75 IP, WAS -8) - The spread and Wizards' implied point total is ideal for Wall tonight
Yogi Ferrell ($5,200, 111.75 IP, DAL -11.5) - We don't have a ton of data on Ferrell because he hasn't been a key player for the Mavericks for very long. But there is some evidence that might suggest that a double-digit Mavericks win could be good for Ferrell.
J.J. Barea is expected to return from a long injury, but he is expected to be on a minutes restriction and ,especially if the game gets out of hand early, I don't see him cutting into Ferrell's minutes in a huge way.
Jeremy Lin ($5,000, 100.25 IP, BKN +11.5) - On the flip side of this PG matchup is Jeremy Lin, who has been increasingly productive since returning from injury, but hasn't seen his nightly price rise that much. He's averaging just under 30 DKP per night in his last three contests and he, along with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (see PF section), probably has the best stability among Nets players in blowout losses.
Because of the return of Barea, I like Lin a little more than Ferrell tonight.
Jamal Murray ($4,000, 109.75 IP, DEN +3) - $4K is a pretty good price for Murray. He has topped 24 DKP in 3 of his last 4, and has a strong negative correlation with Danilo Gallinari, who has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable tonight with an illness.
James Harden - See PG section.
Wes Matthews ($5,200, 111.75 IP, DAL -11.5) - Dallas has a favorable matchup tonight, and I'm trying to figure out who are the best guys to play in that matchup. Matthews, Seth Curry ($6.7K), and Barnes ($6.4K) all improve with rising point totals and increasing margins of victory.
But Curry's prices is obscene tonight, Barnes' is fairly reasonable. Matthews appears to me to be the most competitively priced of the three, and although he has been scuffling a bit lately, tonight could be a good buy-low opportunity for Matthews.
Avery Bradley ($5,400, 112.75 IP, BOS -3) - Like Matthews, Bradley has been in a bit of a slump lately. He has yet to top 30 DKP in his 5 games since returning from injury. But $5.4K is a great price for Bradley in a favorable matchup (although Bradley is very stable amidst rising point totals), he poses another buy-low option at SG tonight.
Jeremy Lamb ($3,300, 107.25, CHA -8) - Lamb's production increases as the Hornets' margin of victory grows. He's gotten 25 minutes in back-to-back games, and with Batum listed as probable, there is a slight chance that Lamb could get more minutes in order to protect Batum's ankle. For only $3.3K Lamb has decent upside.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,100, 104.75 IP, MIL -3) - He had a big double-double the other night against New York on 104 team points. His price is up a little bit, but $10.1K isn't terribly high for Giannis.
Wes Matthews - See SG section.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($4,900, 107.25 IP, CHA -8) - MKG's production rises slightly as the Hornets' point total and margin of victory grows.
With Kaminsky and Plumlee both out tonight due to injury, Charlotte's frontcourt is a little thin which could allow for more rebounding opportunities for MKG. I think he stands a decent chance to put up a double-double tonight.
Trevor Ariza ($4,500, 115 IP, HOU -6) - $4.5K is a great price for Ariza, who is usually priced North of $5K. Ariza could benefit even further if Ryan Anderson (questionable) is ruled out, but I think Ariza is a good value play even if Anderson does play. Along with his competitive price, Ariza's production rises modestly as the Rockets point total and margin of victory increases.
None - There aren't any PFs I'm in love with tonight. Towns' price is fairly high for a matchup that is not very good for him. His production isn't very good when Minnesota loses by more than about 5 points. If the game holds true to the spread, I think he is at risk of having a sub-50 DKP night. Draymond Green has yet to top 40 DKP in March, and with a slightly elevated price and the Warriors fully healthy at PF/C, I don't think Green has a lot of value upside. Paul Millsap is at a decent price, but his production is closely tied to the Hawks' point total and at only 102 implied points I'm not super optimistic about his upside.
Dirk Nowitzki ($6,100, 111.75 IP, DAL -11.5) - The data doesn't suggest that Nowitzki has great value tonight. He is usually priced below $6K and his production doesn't get big boosts from high Dallas point totals or blowout wins. But he is coming off back-to-back 40 DKP nights and with Brook Lopez out tonight I think Nowitzki has some nice upside.
Trevor Ariza - See SF section.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,200, 100.25 IP, BKN +11.5) - Like Jeremy Lin (see PG section), Hollis-Jefferson doesn't seem to underperform in blowout Nets' losses.
None - The only elite true-C option to add to a list of PFs that I'm not high on is Nikola Jokic, who has missed the last two games with the flu. Probably not the best idea to risk $10.3K in salary on a guy with what appears to be a fairly serious illness.
Dirk Nowitzki - See PF section.
Mason Plumlee ($5,900, 109.75 IP, DEN +3) - Rotowire has Jokic as expected to play tonight, but I'm less certain. He didn't practice with the team yesterday and has missed the last two games with the flu. Plumlee is averaging 37.75 DKP in those two games, and although the Nuggets' implied point total is on the low side (by their standards), I think Plumlee, who was a great value guy in Portland, has good value upside tonight if Jokic can't go. If Jokic is in action tonight, Plumlee's potential value takes a big hit.
Kosta Koufos ($3,900, 102.75 IP, SAC +8) - Koufos is averaging 29 DKP in his last three games, all losing efforts in which the Kings have lost by an average of 7.5 points while averaging 103 team points. Koufos can be productive in low-scoring losing efforts and has been playing well in such games as of late.