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New York @ Orlando (O/U 214, ORL -1)
Dallas @ Atlanta (O/U 196, ATL -5.5)
Philadelphia @ Miami (O/U 213, MIA -9)
Washington @ Toronto (O/U 209, TOR -4)
Cleveland @ Boston (O/U 222, CLE -1)
Denver @ Milwaukee (O/U 225.5, MIL -2.5)
Detroit @ New Orleans (O/U 208.5, NO -2)
Indiana @ San Antonio (O/U 208, SA -10)
Minnesota @ Utah (O/U 200.5, UTA -6)
Brooklyn @ Sacramento (O/U 216.5, SAC -2.5)
Houston @ LA Clippers (O/U 232, LAC -1.5)
James Harden ($11,700, 115.25 IP, HOU +1.5) - Harden is a perennial stud. Reason for optimism for Harden: $11.7K is a pretty good price for Harden. Reason for pessimism for Harden: He hasn't been very productive since the All Star break, failing to reach 60 DKP, 30 points, or record a triple double in his last three games.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500, 114 IP, MIL -2.5) - I think tonight is a really good night for Giannis, whose production increases as the Bucks' point total and margin of victory increases.
Additionally, Giannis has a strong negative correlation with recently injured Michael Beasley (-0.42).
Chris Paul ($8,900, 116.75 IP, LAC -1.5) - If not for a few outliers in which Paul scored 50+ DKP in games in which the Clippers score fewer than 100 points, it would appear that Paul's production increases as the Clippers' point total increases through the 100-130 point range. And while $8.9K isn't an astoundingly low price for Paul, it isn't too high given a pretty favorable matchup.
NOT Cory Joseph ($5,400, 106.5 IP, TOR -4) - I imagine Cory Joseph will be a popular play in the coming weeks, with Kyle Lowry out for the foreseeable future. I think he should be mildly productive, but in my opinion there are other PGs with better upside than Joseph at his price range. And with a the Raptors' relatively low implied point total tonight, I don't see tonight as a night in which Joseph stands a great chance to flash high upside.
Those guards with more upside than Joseph for similar (lower) pricer? Tyler Johnson ($5.1K), Jeremy Lin ($5K), and Patrick Beverley ($5.3K).
Patty Mills ($3,600, 109 IP, SA -10) - Tony Parker is listed as questionable and I have read reports that suggest he is unlikely to play tonight. A large spread is good news for Mills, who has a strong negative correlation with Parker (-0.44). San Antonio just recalled Dejounte Murray ($3.7K), who they have started in place of Parker in recent games in which Parker was injured. But regardless of who starts, Mills has been way more productive than Murray. In games in which Mills has gotten 25+ minutes (12 games), he is averaging close to 27 DKP per night. I think Mills is a great sleeper play at PG tonight if Parker sits.
James Harden - See PG section.
DeMar DeRozan ($9,300, 106.5 IP, TOR -4) - No Kyle Lowry and the Wizards coming off a hard-fought game against the Warriors that came down to the wire. I like DeRozan to have a big night.
Lou Williams ($6,100, 115.25 IP, HOU +1.5) - With the Lakers, Williams' production tended to peak around 110 team points. It's hard to say how this pattern will carry over to his role with the Rockets. I like to think that his peak production will be at a slightly higher Houston point total, simply because the Rockets score more points than the Lakers. But what we do know is that Williams has topped 35 DKP in 2-of-3 games with the Rocekts so far. I think Williams has a little more value at SG, as the position has far less top-tier talent.
Kyle Korver ($4,500, 111.5 IP, CLE -1) - His price is about where it has been since joining the Cavs, perhaps down a little bit. Korver has been getting 25+ minutes nightly since joining the Cavs, and I like him tonight on account of his negative correlation with injured Kevin Love (-0.23) and a price that is a little below what Korver has cost since the All Star break.
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,400, 107 IP, BKN +2.5) - Kilpatrick has some nice upside for a sub-$5K guard. His salary distribution is very bimodal, and tonight he is priced on the cheap. Kilpatrick's best scoring efforts come in games that are high-scoring and the Nets win. I'm not sure that I'd expect this game to be high-scoring, and you can really never expect the Nets to win, but tonight poses one of the more winnable matchups for the Nets. There is some risk with Kilpatrick who puts up his fair share of sub-20 DKP games, but few players at his price level offer as much 30+ DKP potential as Kilpatrick.
Rodney Hood ($4,100, 103.25 IP, UTA -6) - Hood's price continues to be pretty low. At the same price point last night, Hood put up 26 DKP. He doesn't offer overwhelming upside, but I think Hood is underpriced for a guy who sits pretty consistently in the 20-35 DKP range.
Giannis Antetokounmpo - See PG section. I like Antetokounmpo for his price more than LeBron James tonight. However LeBron still figures to be a solid play.
None/Trevor Ariza ($5,000, 115.25 IP, HOU +1.5) - There are no SFs that jump off the page as likely to have great value tonight. $5K is a good price for Ariza.
NOT Andrew Wiggins ($7,400, 97.25 IP, MIN +6) - Wiggins has been a recurring feature as a high-value SF option. But I usually highlight Wiggins in games that the T'Wolves are favored in and have a high implied point total. Wiggins production is closely linked to the performance of the Timberwolves, which is good for games in which they have a good matchup, but very bad for games in which they have a tough matchup. Tonight's matchup versus the Jazz most certainly is the latter.
Kyle Korver - See SG section.
Anthony Davis ($10,400, 105.25 IP, NO -2) - Davis is pretty consistent versus the Pelicans point total and versus the spread. He draws a bit of a tough matchup against Andre Drummond, but $10.4 is a low price for Davis, which should add to his value upside. It is tough to say how the Cousins suspension affects Davis.
I also think Davis' value increases because Karl-Anthony Towns has a really touch matchup against Rudy Gobert and the slow-paced Utah Jazz. And at 6-point underdogs, Towns is a bit of a risky play.
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,400, 106.5 IP, NY +1) - Porzingis is coming back from a minor ankle injury, but I haven't seen any indication that he will be on a minutes restriction. $6.4K is a good price for Porzingis. Tonight's game figures to be close, which is good news for Porzingis.
Joakim Noah has been ruled out for the season, and now-starting Center Willy Hernangomez has been ruled out for tonight's game, which figures to increase Porzingis' minutes slightly.
Richaun Holmes ($4,700, 102 IP, PHI +9) - With the indefinite injury status of Joel Embiid and departure of Nerlens Noel for Dallas, Philadelphia's frontcourt is all of a sudden rather thin. Robert Covington and Dario Saric have been feasting in this thin frontcourt, but their prices have also been rising to the point that I don't think they have nearly as much value. Holmes has benefited in this thin frontcourt as well, but his price has remained fairly stagnant. Since the All Star break, Holmes is averaging a cool 30 DKP per game. If he continues his strong play (and Jahlil Okafor continues his inconsistent play) I like Holmes while his price remains low.
Kosta Koufos ($3,900, 109.5 IP, SAC -2.5) - Koufos is the primary beneficiary of the departure of DeMarcus Cousins (-0.31 DKP correlation). Since the All Star break (and the Cousins trade) Koufos has been more productive, averaging close to 22 DKP per game, including a 30.25 DKP double-double in his last outing. Koufos and the Kings draw a favorable matchup against the porous Brooklyn defense.
Anthony Davis - See PF section.
Kristaps Porzingis/Richaun Holmes - See PF section.
Al Horford ($5,600, 110.5 IP, BOS +1)/Jonas Valanciunas ($4,600, 106.5 IP, TOR -4) - Horford has been slumping lately, but tonight could be a good opportunity to buy low on Horford, who is priced at an absurdly low $5.6K.
Another slumping, buy low target at Center: Jonas Valanciunas.
Kosta Koufos - See PF section.
Nene Hilario ($3,500, 115.25 IP, HOU +1.5) - Nene has quietly been very productive since the All Star break, averaging 22.5 DKP per night, and doing so very efficiently on only 19 minutes. Mike D'Antoni has at times increased Nene's role in order to match him up against power Centers instead of Clint Capela. If Capela struggles agaisnt DeAndre Jordan tonight we might see Nene log 20+ minutes, which could be very good for his owners.