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Cleveland @ Indiana (O/U 216, CLE -3)
San Antonio @ Philadelphia (O/U 212, SA -8)
Denver @ Atlanta (O/U 224, ATL -4.5)
LA Lakers @ Detroit (O/U 216.5, DET -7.5)
Washington @ Brooklyn (O/U 221.5, WAS -10)
Miami @ Milwaukee (O/U 209, MIL -3)
Toronto @ Minnesota (O/U 212, TOR -3.5)
Phoenix @ Memphis (O/U 210.5, MEM -9.5)
LA Clippers @ New York (O/U 219, LAC -1.5)
Utah @ New Orleans (O/U 200.5, UTA -4)
Chicago @ Golden State (O/U 221, GS -14)
Boston @ Sacramento (O/U 211.5, BOS -8)
John Wall ($10,700, 115.75 IP, WAS -10) - With Russell Westbrook and James Harden off tonight, Wall is the top priced point guard, and for good reason. He's been a double-double machine (5 in a row coming into tonight). The matchup is great for Wall, who tends to have great production in the Wizards' 110-120 point range, and tends to be his best around a spread of -5. If you tab Wall for your lineup, you should be hoping for a little closer of a game than anticipated, but I still see Wall being a stud as long as the Wizards don't go up by 20+ points early in the game. $10.7K is a high price for Wall, but I like him more than any of the other $10K+ point guards for his price.
Goran Dragic ($7,500, 103 IP, MIA +3) - Dragic probably is more of a "value" play than a true "stud", but he has been so good in the absence of a number of Miami's key offensive playmakers. Additionally, Dion Waiters is listed as questionable due to a sprained ankle. If he can't go, Dragic stands to benefit immensely, as he has a moderate negative DKP correlation with Waiters (-0.27). The matchup isn't great for Dragic, who usually performs better in Heat wins, but the Heat's implied point total sits pretty close to Dragic's ideal scoring range.
Ricky Rubio ($6,700, 104.25 IP, MIN +3.5) - $6,700 is a decent price for Rubio, but not great. Rubio draws a decent matchup, but again, not great. The key thing to keep an eye on with Rubio is the status of backup point guard Kris Dunn, with whom Rubio has a DKP correlation of -0.37.
Dennis Schroder ($6,000, 114.5 IP, ATL -4.5) - Schroder has been quite inconsistent as of late. But $6K is a great price for him, and he has a great matchup tonight against the usually high-scoring Denver Nuggets. The Hawks' implied point total is pretty ideal for Schroder, and although he has really good stability versus the spread, he does tend to be slightly more productive in Hawks' wins.
Jordan Clarkson ($3,900, 104.5 IP, LAL +7.5) - The matchup isn't great for Clarkson, who is typically much more productive when the Lakers top 110 points. But he has relatively stable production against the spread, and he figures to be the Lakers' go-to player off the bench if the opening line holds.
But what makes Clarkson a true sleeper is his incredibly low price. He offers legit 30+ DKP potential and is thus usually priced closer to $5K than $4K, much less below $4K.
Tyus Jones ($3,300, 104.25 IP, MIN +3.5) - Like Rubio, keep an eye on the status of Kris Dunn. If Dunn plays, I think Jones has little to no value. But if Dunn sits Jones becomes the second point guard, a role which in which he has averaged 26 DKP over the last two games.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,100, 107.75 IP, TOR -3.5) - The implied point total actually favors Lowry a little more, but given the depth at point guard I'm more intrigued by DeRozan than Lowry. With DeRozan just back from injury, his price is on the low side, but it might not stay there for long if he plays well in his return.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,100, 104.25 IP, MIN +3.5) - Wiggins is a guy to pay attention to moving forward given Zach LaVine's injury. LaVine's strongest negative correlate besides Nemanja Bjelica is Wiggins (-0.28). As previously discussed, Wiggins' production is closely related to the team's production. Tonight isn't a great matchup for Wiggins, as the T'Wolves are expected to lose and don't appear to have huge point-total-upside. I simply mention Wiggins just because I think he will have some increased value moving forward with LaVine sidelined for the rest of the season due to a major ACL injury.
Jordan Clarkson - See PG section.
Arron Afflallo ($3,300, 101.75 IP, SAC +8) - I'm trying to figure out who benefits from the slew of Kings' injuries, which as of now includes Rudy Gay, Omri Casspi, Garrett Temple, and DeMarcus Cousins. And I think Afflallo could be the guy.
Temple has strong negative correlation with Gay and Cousins, but he's out. A low implied point total could actually be a plus for Afflallo, who tends to be his most productive self when the Kings score around 100 points.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,100, 110 IP, SA -8) - LeBron's price is a little high for me, I think Giannis' inconsistency as of and price are a little risky, and a GSW-CHI blowout is good for neither Durant nor Jimmy Butler. Enter Kawhi Leonard, who has a pretty good price at $8,100, and a favorable matchup in which the Spurs have a nice implied point total and are expected to be winners. Both scenarios in which Leonard is very productive and consistent.
Leonard is listed as questionable, so it is worth checking his status closer to game time. But if he goes and isn't under a minutes restriction I think Leonard is a great play tonight with minimal risk. He also should benefit modestly from the absence of Pau Gasol, who is out with an injury (-0.19 DKP correlation).
Wilson Chandler ($6,600, 109.75 IP, DEN +4.5) - $6.6K is on the high side for Chandler, who is usually priced closer to $6K. But with Gallinari again expected to sit due to injury, Chandler has some nice upside. He also tends to do a little better in Nuggets' losses.
Andrew Wiggins - See SG section
Blake Griffin ($9,300, 110.25 IP, LAC -1.5) - $9.3K is a high price for Griffin, which isn't surprising as he's coming off a 63 DKP triple-double. As much as I'm opposed to highlighting guys with inflated prices, tonight really is a perfect matchup for Griffin, who is at his best in close games in which the Clippers score in the 110-120 range.
Kevin Love ($8,500, 109.5 IP, CLE -3) - $8.5K is more than I think you should pay for Love. But of the Cavs' "Big Three", Love has the most upside if the Cavs score huge and top 120 points.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,100, 110 IP, SA -8) - See Kawhi Leonard in SF section. Aldridge has even more upside than Leonard if the Spurs approach 120. He also stands to benefit modestly from a Gasol-less Spurs' frontcourt (-0.20 DKP correlation).
Taj Gibson ($4,800, 103.5 IP, CHI +14) - $4.8K is actually a pretty good price for Gibson. He is one of the few Bulls that has slightly better production in losing efforts than winning efforts (along with Dwyane Wade). The pre-game line is huge, but if the Bulls can keep it closer than expected I think Gibson could make for a decent play.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800, 104.25, MIN +3.5) - With DeMarcus Cousins injured and Anthony Davis drawing what I think is a really tough matchup agains Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, Towns has a good chance to be the most productive center tonight. Towns' struggles in T'Wolves' losses has been discussed on this blog before, so owners should hope for as close of a game as possible. But a 3.5-point line isn't huge, so there's not a ton of concern over the game being non-competitive.
Andre Drummond ($8,600, 112 IP, DET -7.5) - Drummond draws an ideal matchup tonight, with a high implied point total and a pretty large opening line, which is great news for Drummond whose production tends to increase as the Pistons' margin of victory increases.
Nerlens Noel($4,800, 102 IP, PHI +8)/Jahlil Okafor ($4,100) - No Joel Embiid tonight, could be good news for Noel and Okafor.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,500, 101.75 IP, SAC +8) - With the absence of DeMarcus Cousins, WCS figures to be in line for a minutes increase tonight against the Celtics. He has been pretty productive as of late, topping 24 DKP in four of his last eight games. While I think he lacks elite upside, at only $3.5K he stands a pretty good chance to be worth 5+ DKP/$1K.