For full access to our team charts and player distributions for NBA, NFL, and MLB DFS, become an Advanced Sports Analytics member here.
James Harden ($12,500, 116 Implied Points, HOU -6.5)/Russell Westbrook ($11,500, 102.5 IP, OKC -1.5) - Both are perennial studs if you can afford them. Westbrook at $11.5K is a little better of a price than Harden at $12.5K, but I think with Harden you buy a bit of security and upside. The Thunder's low implied point total tonight makes Westbrook a bit of a risk, as his production tends to drop off as the Thunder's point total decreases. I expect Westbrook to be a solid play, but I think he lacks the huge upside he usually has in a game that is expected to be low-scoring.
Isaiah Thomas ($10,000, 116 IP, BOS -11) - Isaiah Thomas' price continues to rise at a pretty impressive rate. At some point the Thomas bubble is going to pop. As was the case Tuesday night, keep an eye on the injury status of Avery Bradley (game time decision) who has a -0.34 DKP correlation with Thomas. If Bradley plays I don't think Thomas is worth a play at $10K, but if he misses another game, I think Thomas figures to be a good play tonight. His production steadily rises with the Celtics' point total, and at 116 implied point tonight Thomas has a great matchup if Bradley can't go.
Jeff Teague ($7,500, 113.25 IP, IND -7) - Although the price isn't great for Teague, the matchup is. He tends to be his most productive around 110-115 points and 10-point wins.
D'Angelo Russell ($5,900, 105 IP, LAL +11) - $5.9K is a really good price for Russell, whose price is probably down due to his recent return from injury. But in his two games this week, Russell has played 30+ minutes and averaged almost 50 DKP.
Russell is a somewhat risky play as he does put up his fair share of sub-25 DKP games, and tonight's implied point total and pre-game line aren't favorable for him. But at such a low price and such high upside, I think Russell might be worth a gamble tonight.
Jamal Murray ($3,600, 112.75 IP, DEN -1.5) - I think for $3,600 Murray has some decent upside. Murray has a strongly negative correlation with injured SF Danilo Gallinari (-0.45) and SG Will Barton (-0.31). Emmual Mudiay is a game time decision and also negatively correlates with Murray (-0.35). If Mudiay doesn't play, Murray has great upside, but I like him as a potential sleeper even if Mudiay does play.
Dwyane Wade ($7,000, 109.5 IP, CHI +6.5) - I think Jimmy Butler also could be a strong play tonight, but I like Wade more due to the opening line. Wade's production tends to be a little better in losing efforts, while Butler does better in winning efforts or at the very least close games.
Butler's drop-off in losing efforts isn't so severe that I think he's unplayable. Both he and Wade tend to be their most productive as the Bulls approach 110 points. But given the pre-game line, I think Wade stands a slightly better chance than Butler to be a great value.
Seth Curry ($5,800, 100.25 IP, DAL +5.5)/Norman Powell ($5,700, 107.25 IP, TOR -4.5) - Both Powell and Curry benefit from injuries to teammates. Curry benefits from injuries to J.J. Barrea, Andrew Bogut (-0.22 DKP correlation), and Deron Williams (-0.34, Williams is listed as "questionable" so pay attention to his status) while Powell benefits from the what is expected to be the continued absence of DeMar DeRozan (-0.34 DKP correlation, DeRozan also listed as "questionable"). Honestly, the price feels a little high for both of these guys, who had great value in the last 1-2 weeks. But both have played pretty well in the absence of some of their teammates and could continue to do so again tonight. Although Curry has shown the ability to be fairly productive even in low-scoring games, I like Powell's upside a little more due to a high implied point total.
Nick Young ($4,200, 105 IP, LAL +11) - Young is a high-risk/high-reward play. I think he has a decent chance to have a nice game if the Lakers can keep the game close and outscore their implied point total by a modest margin.
Paul George ($8,100, 113.25 IP, IND -7) - I think Giannis is a perfectly good play tonight, but I think given their prices and matchups, I like PG's value more. $10,300 is a bit on the high side for Giannis, but I'm more concerned about his upside with the Bucks as 1.5-point underdogs against the Nuggets. His production does tend to drop-off in losing efforts.
On the other hand, George has good increasing production as the Pacers' point total rises and is most productive in Indiana victories. George is also eligible at PF.
Jabari Parker ($7,300, 111.25 IP, MIL +1.5) - The price isn't great for Parker, but I think it's a really good matchup for him. As you can see above, Parker has pretty good production stability across spreads, and has actually notched more 40+ DKP nights in losing efforts than in winning efforts. And Parker tends to have increasing production as the Bucks' point total eclipses 105, unlike Antetokounmpo whose production doesn't increase unless the Bucks approach 120 points.
Wilson Chandler ($5,700, 112.75 IP, DEN -1.5) - I can never seem to get Wilson Chandler on the right night, but Chandler would appear to have some nice upside tonight. Chandler has tends to have increasing production with a rising Nuggets' point total through the 110-120 range. But more importantly, Chandler figures to benefit from the absence of Danilo Gallinari, with whom he has a -0.28 DKP correlation. Chandler also negatively correlates with two game time decisions: Will Barton and Nikola Jokic (-0.17 and -0.11, respectively).
With injuries at SG, SF, and PF, Chandler figures to get a lot of minutes tonight, and if the game becomes high-scoring Chandler could be in line for a high-upside night.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,600, 111 IP, SAC -4.5) - I love DeMarcus Cousins in his matchup against the Suns tonight. The key with Cousins is to try to avoid games in which the Kings are at risk of being blown out. As 4.5-point favorites tonight, Cousins is protected against that outcome, and with a high implied point total he has tremendous upside.
I like Cousins more than Karl-Anthony Towns, whose price of $9.9K is less competitive than that of Cousins and who draws a less-than-favorable matchup against the Pistons (less high-scoring upside, MIN +4.5).
Paul George, Jabari Parker, Wilson Chandler - See SF section, all three have PF eligibility.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,100, 106.25 IP, BKN +7) - RHJ got his first start of the season Wednesday night, totalling 30.5 DKP. I think the matchup is decent tonight, as he tends to be his most productive in blowout losses (although this trend might shift with him in the starting lineup). $4,100 is a pretty reasonable price for RHJ, especially given his promotion to the starting lineup.
DeMarcus Cousins - See PF section. I think Cousins is a great play tonight.
Myles Turner ($6,900, 113.25 IP, IND -7) - Turner is a high-upside play, who has pretty stable production versus the spread in Pacers' wins, protecting him against the risk of an Indiana blowout. Turner has steeply increasing production as the Pacers' point total rises (see Paul George in SF section), so tonight's matchup could mean a big game for Turner. Turner has little to no correlation with George, meaning you can play them together, but shouldn't necessarily expect them to correlate.
Al Horford ($6,800, 116 IP, BOS -11) - Horford stands to benefit modestly from another missed game by Avery Bradley (-0.32 DKP correlation). $6,800 is a perfectly reasonable price for Horford, who is pretty consistently priced just below $7K. Horford typically does better in low-scoring games, but has had 40+ DKP nights when the Celtics top 110. Horford is usually a pretty good value with some upside, I like him to be a valuable play tonight, especially if the game is a little closer than expected.
Horford could make for a nice pair with Jae Crowder (+0.62 DKP correlation), his -0.14 correlation with Thomas don't make them an ideal pair, but isn't so low that it is inconceivable to play both.
Clint Capela ($4,700, 116 IP, HOU -6.5) - Capela has pretty stable production across Rockets' scoring ranges and spreads, his value is likely to come from his low price, which continues to be well below his usual level even amidst a lot of success since returning from injury.
Keep an eye on reports of coach Mike D'Antoni's plans at center, as he sometimes opts to start Nene against more formidable offensive post players. However I'm not too concerned about this tonight, as neither Taj Gibson nor Robin Lopez fit the bill of "impact post scorers."