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Golden State @ Washington (O/U 229.5, GS -7)
Portland @ Detroit (O/U 214, DET -4.5)
Utah @ Oklahoma City (O/U 204.5, EVEN)
Denver @ Chicago (O/U 222, CHI -3)
Phoenix @ Memphis (O/U 210.5, MEM -10)
Charlotte @ LA Lakers (O/U 215.5, CHA -4)
Russell Westbrook ($12,100, 102.25 IP, Even) - At first glance I didn't like Westbrook tonight on account of a low implied point total. My concern in regards to this still persists, as Westbrook's production does tend to drop off as the Thunder's point total decreases. But I think John Wall is a player to avoid tonight, as his production drops off significantly in games that the Wizards lose (only seven 50+ DKP nights in the Wizards' 23 losses).
But back to Westbrook - his price is really good tonight. Although a tough matchup might be cause for concern, $12.1K is a great price for the top fantasy player, and he has been on fire lately, recording a triple-double in three of his last four games, averaging 73.5 DKP over that stretch.
Mike Conley ($7,900, 110.25 IP, MEM -10) - I have mixed feelings about Conley tonight. $7.9K is a very high price for him.
But, Conley does benefit in a big way from double-digit Grizzlies wins and a high point total. On most nights I'd say Conley for $7.9K is a guy to avoid, but given the Grizzlies are heavy favorites with a high implied point total (by Memphis' standards) I think Conley has potential to be a valuable play tonight, even at an inflated price.
If Conley's high price scares you away but you want to play a Memphis player in this matchup, consider JaMychal Green (see PF section) or Tony Allen (see SG section) as cheaper options who also could benefit if Memphis reaches their implied point total and wins by double-digits.
Reggie Jackson ($5,300, 109.25 IP, DET -4.5) - Although Detroit has what is generally considered a favorable matchup (high implied point total, moderate favorites) for most players, the opening line and over/under don't point towards a huge game for Jackson, whose production is rather inconsistent at high point totals and is actually slightly better in Pistons losses. But I'm highlighting Jackson as a value mostly on account of his rather low price. $5.3K is a great price for Jackson tonight, who is usually priced closer to $6K.
Jimmy Butler ($9,300, 112.5 IP, CHI -3) - As discussed in previous posts, when considering Wade vs. Butler, the spread and implied point totals are good indicators. With a high implied point total tonight and the Bulls opening as 3-point favorites, Butler should be the Chicago wing to roll with tonight.
Tony Allen ($4,800, 110.25 IP, MEM -10) - Allen is a low-cost option who could be an alternative to Mike Conley if you are trying to play the Memphis-Phoenix matchup. I wouldn't play Allen and Conley together as they have moderate negative correlation (-0.23). But if Conley's price is too high to play him, Allen could be another option as a guard who tends to be more productive in Grizzlies wins and high-scoring games.
Rodney Hood ($4,100, 102.25 IP, Even) - Hood will be playing in his third game back from injury tonight. These mid-tier players who are returning from injury make for prime sleeper candidates in my opinion (think Khris Middleton), because they are frequently priced well below their usual price when healthy. $4.1K is a great price for Hood, who can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways. Hood was lackluster in his first game back from injury, totaling 9 DKP over 21 minutes, but was up to 23.75 DKP over 27 minutes in his second game back. I think Hood stands a good chance to continue to get back to the form that has had him priced at over $5K for most of the season.
Kevin Durant ($9,700, 118.25 IP, GS -7) - He's very stable against the spread, and the Warriors' implied point total tonight is right in Durant's wheelhouse. With no LeBron James tonight, Durant stands a very good chance to be the top-scoring SF tonight.
Jimmy Butler - See SG section. Butler stands the best chance to challenge Durant as the top SF.
Otto Porter ($6,000, 111.25 IP, WAS +7) - While I think some of Washington's top players are worth avoiding tonight due to the matchup against the Warriors, Porter might actually benefit from a lopsided Washington loss.
Unlike Wall, Beal (to an extent), and Morris, Porter actually does better in single-digit losses than single-digit wins. On top of this, $6K, while it isn't a steal, is still a pretty good price for Porter. Porter doesn't have quite the upside that Draymond Green has, but at $1.4K less than Green he still has good 40+ DKP potential.
Tobias Harris ($5,300, 109.25 IP, DET -4.5) - I like Harris value tonight. $5.3K is a good price for him and he typically is more productive in Pistons wins and as the team approaches 110 points.
Denzel Valentine ($3,400, 112.5 IP, CHI -3) - I try to avoid promoting a player without good data to back it up, but I just have a good feeling about Valentine tonight. With the departure of Doug McDermott and the injury status of Paul Zipser, Valentine figures to be in for more playing time in the near future. And in both games since the All Star break, Valentine has scored in double figures, added multiple rebounds and assists, all while getting 20+ minutes. The Bulls have a good matchup tonight against the up-tempo Nuggets (who have a plethora of wing scoring options), I think Valentine could easily provide 20-30 DKP tonight at a low cost.
Draymond Green ($7,400, 118.25 IP, GS -7) - Green draws a pretty good matchup tonight from an implied point and spread standpoint. His $7.4K salary is right about where it has been all year. I've just been looking at Green's DKP distribution chart, and it is a pretty nice mix of consistency and upside. He scores around 37 DKP at a very consistent rate (which would put him right around 5 DKP/$1K), but he also has this 50+ DKP upside that you usually have to pay a premium for.
Otto Porter/Tobias Harris - See SF section.
JaMychal Green ($4,200, 110.25 IP, MEM -10) - See charts in PG/Mike Conley section. Green is a low-budget alternative that I think stands to benefit from the Grizzlies' unusually large implied point total and spread.
Andre Drummond ($8,200, 109.25 IP, DET -4.5) - See charts in the SF/Tobias Harris section. Like Harris, Drummond is at his best in high-scoring Pistons wins. Nikola Jokic has yet to top 40 DKP since the All Star break (and with a tough matchup against Chicago I'm not banking on him breaking out of his slump in a big way tonight). Drummond could very well be the best option at Center tonight.
Draymond Green - See PF section. There's really no mid-tier Centers I'm highly intrigued by tonight. Rudy Gobert could be a decent option, he's been very productive in back-to-back games. Steven Adams and Enes Kanter both have decent prices, but I think the tough matchup versus Utah limits their upside.
Alan Williams ($4,100, 100.25, PHO +10) - Williams could be worth a roll of the dice, as he has had nice showings in two consecutive games, including a 48.75 DKP outbreak Sunday night. It is tough to figure how the Phoenix frontcourt will be managed for the remainder of the season, but it appears that we'll be seeing more of Williams and Alex Len, and less of veteran Center Tyson Chandler.