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Memphis @ Indiana (O/U 205.5, EVEN)
Washington @ Philadelphia (O/U 217, WAS -8)
Miami @ Atlanta (O/U 208, ATL -3.5)
Utah @ Milwaukee (O/U 201.5, UTA -3)
LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City (O/U 222, OKC -10)
Dallas @ Minnesota (O/U 203.5, MIN -3)
Phoenix @ Chicago (O/U 216.5, CHI -6)
Boston @ Toronto (O/U 215.5, TOR -3)
Brooklyn @ Denver (O/U 231, DEN -9)
San Antonio @ LA Clippers (O/U 211.5, SA -4)
Russell Westbrook ($13,000, 116 IP, OKC -10) - He's a costly play, but tonight is a phenomenal matchup for Westbrook. A high implied point total and expected Thunder win both benefit Westbrook.
John Wall ($10,100, 110.5 IP, WAS -8) - Tonight's matchup is perfect for Wall from an implied points/spread standpoint.
Isaiah Thomas ($9,000, 106.25, BOS +3) - The market seems to have cooled a bit on Thomas. I was hesitant to promote him when he was priced around $10K, but tonight's $9K salary is as cheap as Thomas has been in awhile. He doesn't draw a great matchup from an implied points/spread angle, but with Avery Bradley's health still very much in doubt, I think Thomas should be a stud tonight based on correlation alone (-0.46 DKP correlation with Bradley).
None - There are no mid-tier PG options that I'm particularly intrigued by tonight. Dragic, Teague, Shcroeder, and Rivers are all available at a decent price tonight, but none have an ideal matchup.
Raymond Felton ($3,900, 103.75 IP, LAC +4) - With Chris Paul injured, Felton could benefit (along with Rivers and Jamal Crawford). Felton tends to be a little more productive in losing efforts, and isn't hurt by a moderately low implied point total.
Jimmy Butler ($9,400, 111.25 IP, CHI -6) - I think Butler is a better option tonight than Wade. The production gap between Wade and Butler tends to grow as the Bulls' margin of victory and point total increases.
Given the Bulls' rather high implied point total and the opening line, Butler figures to be a stronger play tonight.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,800, 109.25 IP, TOR -3) - DeRozan has been in a bit of a funk since returning from injury in January. But the $7.8K is a pretty good price for DeRozan and I'm hoping that he can turn things around after the All Star break.
Lowry and DeRozan perform similarly versus the spread, but as the Raptors approach 110 points, DeRozan's production increases while Lowry's remains fairly stable. At $600 less than Lowry (and at a much thinner position), I like DeRozan's value given the matchup.
Jamal Crawford ($4,000, 103.75 IP, LAC +4) - Similarly to Raymond Felton (PG section), Crawford could be a good cheap option on account of the health status of Chris Paul. Like Felton, Crawford also tends to do better in losing efforts and doesn't have huge risk due to a low implied point total.
None/Jimmy Butler - I'm not super optimistic about Giannis tonight. $9.6K is a fine maybe borderline-good price on most nights, but Utah boast one of the premiere defenses in the league and Giannis production does tend to drop off in low-scoring games and when the Bucks lose. You could roll the dice on him because of his sub-$10K price, but I think it is low for good reason.
I think Butler is a fine play, but not as much at SF, which in my opinion has a little more depth than SG.
Wilson Chandler ($6,900, 120 IP, DEN -9)/Danilo Gallinari ($5,500) - Both Chandler and Gallinari experience increasing production as the Nuggets' point total rises.
Gallinari tends to be most productive in Denver wins, while Chandler is better suited for Denver losses (but doesn't dip in production in wins so much that I'd rule him out).
I think the price on Gallinari is significantly better, and given the fact that the Nuggets open as 9-point favorites, I think Galo might be a better option than Chandler from a value standpoint.
Raymond Felton - See PG section.
Khris Middleton ($4,400, 99.25 IP, MIL +3) - As discussed in the "Studs" section, Milwaukee has a tough matchup tonight. But I think Middleton is the most talented SF available for less than $5K, and with more playing time I fully expect his production to increase and his nightly salary to soon follow suit. Tonight isn't the best night for Middleton, but I think his salary is so far below his talent level that he could be a valuable play nonetheless.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500, 103.25 IP, MIN -3) - Minnesota's relatively low implied point total doesn't concern me too much for Towns, who seems to be pretty productive as long as the T'Wolves approach or top 100 points. And Minnesota as the favorite should improve one's confidence in Towns.
However I'm not super optimistic about Towns' value, I think $10.5K feels a little high to me, given Dallas' strong defense. I'd prefer Towns over Blake Griffin, who I think has limited upside given a low implied point total and expected loss for the Clippers.
Paul Millsap ($7,400, 105.75 IP, ATL -3.5) - The price is pretty good for Millsap, and I think he has good upside if the game is higher-scoring than expected.
Wilson Chandler - See SF section.
Nikola Jokic ($10,800, 120 IP, DEN -9) - Well, Jokic was a huge dud last night. It's hard to promote a player the next night after being worth fewer than 2 DKP/$1K. But once again, Jokic draws a great matchup, as he tends to be his most productive as the Nuggets' point total and margin of victory grows.
I do have some concerns with Jokic that are worth considering. For the most part, DraftKings has been undervaluing Jokic this season. I wonder if we're seeing Joker's nightly price rise as a conscious effort by DraftKings to more appropriately price him, which is perhaps leading to an over-inflation of his nightly price.
Another point worth considering is the addition of Mason Plumlee. Jokic had a strong negative correlation with Jusuf Nurkic (-0.45) who was dealt to Portland for Plumlee. In this, there is some evidence that Jokic's value is hurt by a larger role for his backup. I see Plumlee as an upgrade over Nurkic. Jokic's production, and the role of Mason Plumlee will be something to monitor moving forward.
DeAndre Jordan ($6,000, 103.75 IP, LAC +4) - The matchup isn't ideal for Jordan, who is better suited for higher-scoring games and Clippers wins. But $6K is a great price for Jordan, who is usually priced around $7K.
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,200, 109.25 IP, TOR -3) - Valanciunas' production is very stable in the 100+ point range, and although he does tend to be more productive in Raptors wins, his production doesn't really peak unless the Raptors win by double digits, which doesn't seem that likely. But $5.2K is a pretty good price for Valancuinas in what is a decent, borderlin-good matchup.
Jahlil Okafor ($5,200, 104.5 IP, PHI +8) - Okafor has flashed 30+ DKP potential when given a large portion of the minutes at Center. With Joel Embiid still injured (or being protected from injury?) and Nerlens Noel shipped to Dallas, Okafor appears to be the guy in the middle for Philadelphia for the near future. The Sixers did acquire Andrew Bogut from the Mavericks, but early indications are that Bogut will be bought out by the team, and will not have a role with the Sixers. Keep an eye on Okafor tonight and in the near future while Embiid is still sidelined.