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Portland @ Orlando (O/U 214, POR -2.5)
Charlotte @ Detroit (O/U 206.5, DET -4.5)
New York @ Cleveland (O/U 223, CLE -10.5)
Houston @ New Orleans (O/U 227, HOU -4)
LA Clippers @ Golden State (O/U 230, GS -12.5)
Denver @ Sacramento (O/U 220.5, DEN -7)
James Harden ($12,500, 115.5 IP, HOU -4) - $12.5K is on the high side for Harden, but he has a pretty strong matchup tonight. Of the 10 games in which Harden has scored at least 75 DKP, 6 have been games in which the Rockets won by single digits. A close, high-scoring game is ideal for Harden.
Damian Lillard ($8,400, 108.25 IP, POR -2.5)/C.J. McCollum ($7,500) - Lillard and McCollum both check in at pretty competitive prices tonight.
Lillard probably has a little better of a price, as his price usually centers around $8.7K. Lillard and McCollum both have increasing production as the Blazers' point total rises, so both could benefit from Portland going over their modest implied point total. But what has me optimistic about the Portland backcourt is opening line. Lillard and McCollum are most productive in close games, particularly narrow Portland victories.
McCollum and Lillard do have a weak but negative correlation (-0.11), so I would suggest playing only one of the Portland guards. If I had to pick one, I'd probably go with Lillard.
Elfrid Payton ($5,200, 105.75 IP, ORL +2.5) - On the flip side of the POR-ORL game, $5.2K is a good price for Payton. Payton generally does better in Magic wins, and definitely has some risk if the Magic lose by double digits. But, if the Magic surprise the Blazers and win or keep the game close and are able to top 110 points, I think Payton has a chance to be a high-value option at PG.
He has a lot of upside, but the matchup isn't perfect for Payton. I think Payton is a more valid option in large tournaments rather than cash games or small tournaments.
E'Twaun Moore ($3,400, 111.5 IP, NO +4) - It is hard to project how the Pelicans' offense will look with the addition of DeMarcus Cousins. But the departure of Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway, and Tyreke Evans should carve out more minutes for Moore moving forward. Moore's production is very stable versus the spread, and he does tend to do a little better when the Pelicans top 110 points.
None - There really are no players at the shooting guard position that I'm extremely confident in. The position is probably the thinnest position around the league right now.
C.J. McCollum - See PG section. McCollum is eligible at SG as well as PG.
Not Will Barton - As discussed before the All Star break, Barton's price has soared recently. And with the potential return of Emmanuel Mudiay and Danilo Gallinari, I expect Barton's production to decrease in the near future.
Klay Thompson ($6,700, 121.25 IP, GS -12.5) - $6.7K is a little on the high side for Thompson, but not unreasonable. While Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are slightly more productive in close games, Thompson (and Draymond Green) are more productive as the Warriors' margin of victory grows. I don't expect Thompson to be the most productive Warrior tonight, but he is also the cheapest of the Durant/Curry/Green/Thompson big 4. I think given an expected blowout Thompson has good value potential tonight.
E'Twaun Moore - See PG section.
LeBron James ($10,300, 116.75 IP, CLE -10.5)/Kevin Durant ($9,400, 121.25 IP, GS -12.5) - Both are perennial studs, both have fairly good matchups tonight, both are at a decent price. While Durant is better suited for close games, his production doesn't drop off that much when the Warriors win big. And his production typically peaks in games which the Warriors score around 120 points.
The opening line for CLE-NY is ideal for LeBron, whose production peaks around 10-point Cavs victories. He also has nice upside if the Cavs put up a huge point total, as his production linearly increases with Cleveland's point total.
If you're going to spend on one of these forwards, I think James has a little more upside than Durant.
Tobias Harris ($4,800, 105.5 IP, DET -4.5) - Although Harris has been demoted to the bench, $4.8K is still a great price for Harris.
Harris' production against the spread appears to be fairly random, but he does tend to do better in Pistons victories. The Pistons' implied point total is pretty good for Harris, who is at his best when the Pistons approach and, in a perfect world, top 110 points.
Anthony Tolliver ($3,900, 106.75 IP, SAC +7) - The matchup isn't ideal for Tolliver, who is usually better in Kings victories, but I'm intrigued by Tolliver simply due to the absence of other Kings' and former-Kings' forwards. Tolliver negatively correlates with DeMarcus Cousins (traded, -0.24 DKP correlation) and Rudy Gay (injured, -0.5 DKP correlation). Tolliver could be a fairly productive option for less than $4K given the Kings' lack of frontcourt depth.
None - I'm unsure of Cousins, I simply don't know what to expect from him (or Anthony Davis for that matter) as a member of the Pelicans. I think Blake Griffin could be a decent option at PF, but he has a track record of being less productive in lopsided Clippers losses.
Draymond Green ($7,300, 121.25 IP, GS -12.5) - Like Klay Thompson, Draymond tends to be more productive in lopsided victories. His production also tends to be higher the more points the Warriors score in the 110-130 point range. $7.3K is also a pretty good price for Green, who usually costs north of $7.5K.
Tobias Harris - See SF section.
Anthony Tolliver - See SF section.
Nikola Jokic ($10,500, 113.75 IP, DEN -7) - Similarly to Cousins, I'm unsure of how Anthony Davis performs in the Pelicans' new-look offense. Jokic has a great matchup tonight, as his production increases as the Nuggets' performance as a team improves.
With the Nuggets expected to be winners tonight and put up a pretty high point total, Jokic figures to be a stud tonight.
Andre Drummond ($7,600, 105.5 IP, DET -4.5) - I think Draymond Green could be a more valuable play than him, but Drummond draws a decent matchup against the Magic tonight. His production is best in winning efforts, and although his value doesn't peak around the Pistons' implied point total, he does experience increasing production as their point total rises, giving him some decent upside.
Draymond Green - See PF section.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,600, 106.75 IP, SAC +7)/Kosta Koufos ($3,500) - Both figure to benefit from the void filled by the Cousins trade. I think Cauley-Stein has better upside than Koufos, and looking ahead I think could really benefit from an increase in minutes due to the departure of Cousins.