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San Antonio @ Detroit (O/U 209, SA -4.5)
Miami @ Brooklyn (O/U 214.5, MIA -6.5)
Denver @ New York (O/U 229, NY -2.5)
LA Lakers @ Milwaukee (O/U 218.5, MIL -4.5)
New Orleans @ Minnesota (O/U 213.5, MIN -3)
Indiana @ Washington (O/U 214.5, WAS -5)
Golden State @ Memphis (O/U 214.5, GS -7.5)
Atlanta @ Sacramento (O/U 208.5, ATL -2)
Chicago @ Phoenix (O/U 217, CHI -2.5)
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800, 111.5 IP, MIL -4.5) - With no Westbrook or Harden tonight, Giannis is the top guy at PG. He draws a pretty good matchup against Los Angeles, in which the Bucks have a high implied point total and open as modest favorites. Both of which are favorable for Giannis. It is tough to figure out how the return of Khris Middleton will effect Giannis' production. But with the return of Middleton, the Bucks have now lost Jabari Parker for the rest of the season. All things considered, I think Giannis figures to stay productive tonight against the Lakers.
None - I don't love the middle tier options at point guard tonight.
- Steph Curry feels overpriced and doesn't have a great matchup.
- Dragic's playability takes a hit from the return of Tyler Johnson and perhaps Josh Richardson tonight.
- Holiday, Teague, and Conley all feel a bit overpriced and none have a particularly good matchup.
- Bledsoe has a decent price but draws a tough matchup and hasn't been productive as of late.
- Schroder was great the other night, but draws a tough matchup tonight and has a price increase as a result of his big game.
- I want to like Rubio, but the matchup, price, and his inconsistency are tough to overlook.
Jamal Murray ($3,800, 113.25 IP, DEN +2.5) - With Emmanuel Mudiay out tonight, Murray figures to be Jameer Nelson's primary backup, a role that he has been quite effective in recently. With a strong matchup and an expected bump in minutes, I think Murray has good upside tonight for a low cost. He is also eligible at SG.
Tyus Jones ($3,300, 108.25 IP, MIN -3))/Kris Dunn ($3,600) - Minnesota has a pretty nice matchup tonight against the Pelicans. Kris Dunn is listed as questionable with a hand injury, so his status is something to keep an eye on. If he can't go, Tyus Jones has some nice upside as Ricky Rubio's primary backup. The injury to Zach LaVine should open up more minutes for other Minnesota guards. If Kris Dunn does play (and is not on a minutes restriction), I think he has some nice upside as well for under $4K.
Jimmy Butler ($9,000, 109.75 IP, CHI -2.5)/Dwyane Wade ($7,800) - Both are listed as questionable (Wade illness, Butler foot), so keep an eye on that. But, assuming they play, they have a pretty good matchup tonight. I like Butler a little more, as he tends to do better in Chicago wins while Wade tends to do better in Chicago losses.
But both tend to peak in production as the Bulls approach 110 points, which isn't that often.
Will Barton ($6,100, 113.25 IP, DEN +2.5) - The price is fine for Barton, but I think he has nice value upside tonight, as he draws a good matchup against the Knicks and should benefit from injuries to other Nuggets. Barton has a positive correlation with Gallinari, so he doesn't figure to benefit that much on account of Galo's absence. But his negative correlation with Mudiay (-0.32) and Faried (-0.21) might point towards a strong performance from Barton.
Shabazz Muhammad ($4,300, 108.25 IP, MIN -3) - With the injury to Zach LaVine, Muhammad is a guy to keep an eye on. He figures to see an increase in minutes, and could benefit even further if Kris Dunn sits tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo/Jimmy Butler - See PG/SG section. Durant draws a tough matchup tonight.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,200, 108.25 IP, MIN -3) - As previously discussed, Wiggins' production is closely tied to the production of his team. At 108.25 implied points, there's a decent chance the Timberwolves go off tonight, which means there's a decent chance Wiggins does too.
Wiggins has also been quite productive in the absence of Zach LaVine (averaging 41.5 DKP since his injury). Given the above, I like Wiggins potential to top 40 DKP tonight.
Wilson Chandler ($7,100, 113.25 IP, DEN +2.5) - Chandler draws a great matchup tonight, and should be in line for a lot of minutes with injuries to the two Nuggets' starting forwards: Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried.
Shabazz Muhammad - See SG section.
Michael Beasley ($3,900, 111.5 IP, MIL -4.5) - He doesn't have a huge negative correlation with Parker (-0.10). But Parker's injury (and the minutes limit on SF Khris Middleton) should put Beasley in line for more minutes. Beasley has pretty stable production across spread and point total ranges, but does tend to do a little better in Bucks' wins and when the team scores upwards of 110 points (see charts in PG section about Antetokounmpo). Tonight could be a nice night for Beasley.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,700, 103.25 IP, SAC +2)/Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000, 108.25 IP, MIN -3) - Both guys are perennial studs. I think Cousins has a better price, Towns has a better matchup. If I had to pick one, I'd probably go with Cousins. The risk with him is that if Sacramento gets blown out he tends to be much less productive. But at only +2 I like that game to stay fairly close.
I think these two are significant upgrades over the next highest priced guy, Paul George. George tends to struggle in Pacers' losses and has limited upside when the Pacers don't put up huge numbers.
Wilson Chandler - See SF section.
Draymond Green ($7,500, 111 IP, GS -7.5) - I really like Draymond Green tonight. $7.5K is a great price for him, and he stands to benefit from the absence of Zaza Pachulia (-0.42 DKP correlation) and David West (-0.44). If JaVale McGee (who is questionable to play tonight) can't go, Green's stock figures to be even higher. Green has really stable production versus the spread, and is actually more productive in low-scoring games, and 111 implied points for the Warriors would classify as a low-scoring game.
Michael Beasley - See SF section
DeMarcus Cousins/Karl-Anthony Towns - See PF section.
Anthony Davis ($10,100, 105.25 IP, NO +3) - I'm including Davis on his price alone. $10.1K is a great price for Davis, even though the matchup isn't great.
Not Whiteside, Drummond, Jokic - I'm staying away from these three tonight. Jokic and Whiteside have rather high price tags. Drummond, as great as he was Wednesday night, doesn't typically do as well in Pistions' losses (they open as 4.5-point underdogs against the Spurs tonight). I think there is better value above and below these three Centers.
Draymond Green - See PF section. I think tonight is a really good night for Green.
Dewayne Dedmon ($4,000, 106.75 IP, SA -4.5) - Dedmon has some decent upside with Pau Gasol injured. It is tough to predict how Greg Popovich will prioritize his role players. But Dedmon does have double-double and 30 DKP potential if given enough minutes.