Brooklyn @ Indiana (O/U 218.5, Ind -9.5)
In an expected high-scoring for Indiana, Jeff Teague and Paul George appear to be safe plays, with Teague having a little more upside than George. Myles Turner displays a pretty flat DKP points-team real points through the Pacers' 90-110 point range, but his production tends to take off if the Pacers can top 115 points. That doesn't appear to be an unlikely scenario tonight, with their implied point total at 114. If this game can stay close I like Turner. If you were to play the high-scoring blowout scenario, Monta Ellis might be a good play, as he shows a Turner-like tendency to really take off as Indiana approaches 120 points, but his minutes are much more stable (and actually slightly increase) in Indiana blowouts. I'm not in love with Ellis' value distribution, but he could be a decent play in a high-scoring Pacers' blowout. There isn't really any Nets' player that I'd want if the game is lopsided in the Pacers favor. All of the Nets' top players' minutes are curbed in losing efforts, especially as the margin of loss increases. But, if you are playing the scenario in which the Nets hang around in a high-scoring game, Sean Kilpatrick could be a valuable option. His fantasy production tends to take off around 115 team points, and his DKP/$1K distribution does have this nice tail in the 10-15 range. If you're willing to bet on a high-scoring competitive game, Kilpatrick might not be a bad option.
Charlotte @ Detroit (O/U 207, Det -4)
With Charlotte on the second half of a back-to-back, I'd be a little hesitant to bank on some of their stars. Walker and Batum's production does take a small dip as the Hornets' point total is closer to 100. On the Pistons' side, Andre Drummond would appear to be a pretty safe play. As I touched on in Tuesday's post, I like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's bi-modal distribution. He's like a 50-50 tossup of whether he'll be bad KCP (the one who centers around 4 DKP/$1K) or good KCP (the one who centers around 7-8 DKP/$1K). The game isn't expected to be super high-scoring, but KCP's relationship between fantasy production and the Pistons' point total is fairly linear and steep, so to me he seems like a good guy to bet on in a game that I think has a better chance of going high than low.
Utah @ Toronto (O/U 201.5, Tor -5.5)
I'm wouldn't be scared away from Gordon Hayward or Rudy Gobert because of the low Jazz' low implied point total. Gobert's production is very stable across the full spectrum of Jazz' scoring possibilities. And Hayward actually seems to be more productive in moderately low-scoring games than moderately high-scoring games.
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan would appear to be pretty safe plays, I think DeRozan with a little more risk of an unproductive night if the game is very low-scoring than Lowry.
Oklahoma City @ Houston (O/U 226, Hou -8.5)
In this predicted high-scoring affair, James Harden and Russell Westrbrook appear to be strong plays. Westbrook's production in particular really takes off as his team's scoring total tops 110. I think Victor Oladipo is a good guy to pair with Westrbook (correlation of +0.22) as his fantasy production also tends to take off as the Thunder top 110 points. A running mate for Harden is a little tougher to target, as most of the Rockets' players (Harden included) have pretty stable production through the wide range of Rockets' scoring outcomes. But if we look at the Rockets correlation matrix for fantasy points, I really like Montrezl Harrell.
His correlation of +0.3 with Harden's fantasy production his high to begin with, but seems even higher when we consider that Harrell has only been in a starting role for a few weeks (due to Clint Capela's injury). Ryan Anderson could also make for a nice pair with Harden due to their moderate correlation with Harden and his increasing production through the 110-125 point range.
Atlanta @ New Orleans (O/U 206, NO -2.5)
Anthony Davis is probably a decent play, but for a guy who is as highly priced as he is, Davis' DKP/$1K distribution does show a larger density of low-value games than you would like. But on the flip side, few players priced as highly as him ever achieve a 10 DKP/$1K game, so I guess with his strikingly significant left tail you get an unlikely, but still very high-value right tail.
I like Buddy Hield, who has been significantly more productive as a starter (averaging 17.5 DKP) than as a reserve (averaging 12.5 DKP). Because Atlanta is on the second half of a back-to-back, I think this makes for a favorable matchup for Pelicans players, and not a great game for Atlanta players.
Phoenix @ Dallas (0/U 204.5, Dal -6)
P.J Tucker, Tyson Chandler, and T.J. Warren are the three guys for the Suns whose distribution I like, as they have pretty dense right tails in the 5-10 DKP/$1K range. Tucker and Warren even have some nice 10+ DKP/$1K potential. For Dallas, I think Deron Williams is the guy to own instead of Harrison Barnes for this matchup. If the Mavericks top 110, Williams tends to be more productive than Barnes. Williams' minutes are also more stable than Barnes' in games in which the Mavs win by double digits. And lastly, Williams' distribution suggests more value upside than Barnes' distribution.
San Antonio @ Denver (O/U 213, SA -7)
I like a pair of LaMarcus Aldridge and Tony Parker a lot for this game. Their increase in production is quite steep through the 100-120 scoring range, and they have a pretty nice DKP correlation of +0.33. Parker also has a very nice bi-modal DKP/$1K distribution similar to that of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Gasol could also make for a decent play with Parker (instead of Aldridge, not all 3), but his increase in production relative to the Spurs scoring is less steep than Aldridge, and his minutes drop off faster than Aldridge's in Spurs' blowouts. But Parker and Gasol do have a nice +0.43 DKP correlation.
If you wanted to play Denver in a San Antonio blowout scenario, Will Barton could a sleeper play, as he sees a huge spike in minutes in double digit Nuggets' losses.
LA Lakers @ Portland (O/U 216.5, Por -5.5)
With Damian Lillard set to sit again, and a high implied point total for Portland (111 points) C.J. McCollum would appear to be a very strong play tonight. The one caveat is the Blazers are coming off a close game at Golden State last night, which might cut into McCollum's minutes a little bit. If you want to play the scenario of a Portland win with limited minutes for McCollum due to a back-to-back, Aminu, Crabbe, Turner, or Plumlee could be plays worth considering. D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle could make for a nice pair for the scenario of the Lakers hanging with Portland in a high scoring game. Randle and Russell's production start to take off in the Lakers' 110-120 scoring range, and they have a nice +0.31 DKP correlation.