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New York @ Washington (O/U 216.5, Was -7.5)
New Orleans @ Toronto (O/U 214, Tor -7.5)
Sacramento @ Houston (O/U 225.5, Hou -12)
Oklahoma City @ San Antonio (O/U 209.5, SA -9)
Charlotte @ Portland (O/U 214, Por -3.5)
Denver @ Los Angeles (O/U 227, Den -3)
Russell Westbrook ($12,300)/James Harden ($12,200) - Both are perennial studs, no reason to think otherwise tonight. I like Westbrook at $12.3K a little more than Harden at $12.2K.
John Wall ($10,000) - $10K is a bit on the high side for Wall, but I think he has a good matchup tonight. Wall's production tends to peak when the Wizards score 110-115 points (112 implied points tonight) and when they win by 5-10 points (-7.5 pre-game line).
Patrick Beverley ($5,100) - $5,100 is a reasonable price for Beverley, who tends to have an increased yet stable production level when the Rockets top 115 points (118.75 implied points tonight). His production also tends to increase as the Rockets' margin of victory grows (12-point favorites tonight). Additionally, backup guard Eric Gordon will be in his second game after returning from a back injury, which might limit his minutes, further adding to Beverley's potential value.
Patty Mills ($3,700) - The price is pretty good for Mills, and his production stands to benefit from a Spurs' blowout win. Tony Parker ($4,100) tends to be more productive than Mills at the Spurs implied point total of 109.25, but I like Mills' value upside a little better. Parker has a strong positive correlation (+0.43) with injured PF/C Pau Gasol, while Mills has a strong negative correlation (-0.49) with Gasol. Parker and Mills both have the potential to be low-cost/modest-production values tonight, I like Mills at $3,700 just a little better.
James Harden ($12,200) - See PG section.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,800) - $7,800 is a pretty good price for DeRozan, who is likely underpriced due to tonight being his second game back from missing 3 games due to injury. In the Raptors' 110-120 scoring range (110.75 implied points tonight) DeRozan tends to be a little more productive than Kyle Lowry ($8,600) who is more expensive and plays at a deeper PG position than DeRozan. If you're going to roll with one of the Toronto guards tonight I like DeRozan more, on account of his more competitive price and the moderately high implied point total for the Raptors tonight.
Victor Oladipo ($5,500) - Oladipo has really good stability across versus the spread, so I'm not scared away by the Thunder opening as 9-point underdogs. Oladipo has decent stability in the 100-110 point range and nice upside if the Thunder go over 110 (implied point total of only 100.25). Oladipo has the largest negative correlation among Thunder players with injured backup C Enes Kanter (-0.30), which bodes well for him tonight. He also has a +0.22 correlation with Westbrook, making for a decent pair. And lastly, $5,500 is a pretty good price for Oladipo, who is usually priced North of $6K.
Lou Williams ($5,500) - D'Angelo Russell is listed as a game time decision, but is expected to start at PG tonight for the Lakers amidst a leg injury. If for some reason Russell is scratched from the lineup (or even limited in minutes) Williams stands to benefit greatly. Williams and Russell have a strong negative correlation (-0.49), and Williams has a nice track record of late in games in which Russell either didn't play or was limited in minutes: averaging 36.15 DKP in the last 5 games (which Russell either missed or played fewer than 20 minutes).
Kawhi Leonard ($8,800) - Leonard has pretty stable production across Spurs' spreads ranging from +5 to -10, and from point totals ranging from 100-120. He figures to be a strong play tonight, and perhaps stands to benefit slightly from the absence of Pau Gasol (-0.19 correlation).
Wilson Chandler ($5,500) - Chandler is listed as probable for tonight, so keep an eye on his status is you plan to play him tonight. But it is a good matchup for him if he does play. The Nuggets' high implied point total (115) bodes very well for Chandler, and he figures to receive a modest boost in playing time due to the absence of Nikola Jokic (-0.11 correlation)
Andre Roberson ($3,600) - Not a great matchup for Roberson tonight, but $3,600 is on the low side for him, and he does tend to make a nice pair with Russell Westbrook (see PG section). I don't see much upside for Roberson, but if you're looking to take a flyer on a guy below $4,000 and are playing Westbrook, Roberson could be an option worth considering.
None - I'm a little hesitant to endorse Cousins tonight. $11.2K is a little high for him, and he is a risky option if the Kings get blown out in Houston tonight (HOU -12).
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,700) - $6,700 is right about at Aldridge's norm, and Aldridge tends to have steeply increasing production as the Spurs' point total rises in the 95-125 point range (109.25 implied points tonight).
Luol Deng ($3,700) - Deng for $3,700 is a pretty good price, and he stands to benefit modestly from the absence of Julius Randle (-0.19 correlation). Deng's peak production tends to occur in close games which tonight's matchup with Denver is expected to be (DEN -3), however, Deng is best suited for games in which the Lakers score around 105 points (112 implied points). But at $3,700 there are few players with as much 30+ DKP upside as Deng.
Anthony Davis ($10,500) - Again, I'm a little hesitant to jump on the Cousins bandwagon tonight, given the high likelihood of a non-competitive Kings-Rockets game. And Davis at $10.5K is a pretty good price for him.
Steven Adams ($5,400) - In theory Adams should receive a big boost from the absence of Enes Kanter, who is listed as injured for tonight. But the numbers suggest that Adams might only get a modest boost from Kanter's absence (-0.12 correlation).
Adams is worthy of some consideration, but I wouldn't play him if you're playing Oladipo (see SG section), as they tend to negatively correlate (-0.28).
Nene Hilario ($3,300) - The Rockets' frontcourt situation has been pretty tough to figure out with the return of Clint Capela ($4,700). Capela has gotten some starts at center (1/25 vs. Celtics most recently), Montrezl Harrell ($3,700) has gotten some starts (1/29 vs. Pacers most recently) and Nene has gotten some starts (1/27 vs. 76ers most recently). I think Hilario offers the best option if you decide to play Rockets'-Center roulette tonight. Coach Mike D'Antoni has shown a tendency to match Nene up against power post players (think DeMarcus Cousins tonight), and Nene has been pretty effective in such games. Most recently he put up 32 DKP in 27 minutes as the starter against Joel Embiid and the 76ers last Friday.