Minnesota @ Philadelphia (O/U 203.5, Min -4.5)
Karl-Anthony Towns seems like a solid but not exceptional play tonight, as he is pretty consistent but doesn't gain a whole lot more value as Minnesota's point total increases. Rubio makes for a nice pair with KAT, as they have a +0.31 DraftKings point correlation. If Philadelphia keeps the game close and the game becomes high-scoring, Andrew Wiggins becomes an is likely to become an increasingly valuable play. For Philadelphia, if the game is high-scoring and close, Embiid is the guy to own. However, Ersan Ilyasova has some nice upside and I think would be a better play than Embiid in a low-scoring game for the Sixers, which I think is more likely to happen than a close, high-scoring affair. I like Ilyasova's upside in a low-scoring game a lot.
Utah @ Boston (O/U 200, Bos -5.5)
Al Horford is a very intriguing play in this predicted low-scoring game. As you can see below, his best games occur when the Celtics score fewer than 105 points (their implied total for tonight is 103).
Avery Bradley is pretty consistent regardless of Boston's point total, but doesn't present a ton of upside. Gordon Hayward is consistent, but in my opinion presents more risk than potential reward. George Hill is usually a high-upside play, but will not play tonight. Avoid selecting him.
Indiana @ Detroit (O/U 204.5, Det -5)
Indiana is a tough team to get a read on. Paul George, Jeff Teague, and Myles Turner all appear relatively equal in low-scoring games. George is consistent but has little upside, Turner is generally overvalued by DraftKings. Teague has a nice distribution, and seems to stand a pretty good chance to eclipse 5 fantasy points per $1K salary. I really like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for the Pistons if this game can stay reasonably close.
Caldwell-Pope stands a pretty good chance to score between 5 and 10 fantasy points per $1K salary, and his production really takes off as the Pistons put up a lot of points. But, if you thing Detroit will blow out Indiana, Caldwell-Pope does stand to lose some minutes if the game becomes noncompetitive. Tobias Harris makes for a nice pair with KCP (+0.4 correlation), and also does well in games in which Detroit can get to 110 team points.
Washington @ Dallas (O/U 200.5, Was -1)
There aren't many players that I like in this game. Markieff Morris scores better in low-scoring games, but he is frequently over-valued by DraftKings and doesn't present a lot of upside. John Wall, Otto Porter, and Marcin Gortat all tend to struggle in low-scoring games. Bradley Beal is fairly immune to Washington's low-scoring games, and would appear to have more upside (but more risk) than John Wall. Harrison Barnes' scoring pattern is well-suited for games in which Dallas scores around 100 points. In the unlikely scenario that Dallas has a huge scoring night, Deron Williams and Wes Matthews become nice high-upside plays whose production increases greatly as Dallas' team point total takes off.
Toronto @ San Antonio (O/U 207.5, SA -6)
If San Antonio scores huge (110-120), LaMarcus Aldridge tends to do really well, while Kawhai Leonard is more stable at high team point totals. I'm intrigued by the pairing of Tony Parker and Pau Gasol (correlation of +0.43), who both peak in production when San Antonio scores around 110 points, as a nice mid-level pair.
In the event of a Spurs blowout, Parker and Danny Green stand to benefit, as their minutes don't decline the way most starters' minutes do in blowouts. None of the Raptors players intrigue me in this matchup. I would avoid DeRozan, as he doesn't perform well when the Raptors as a team don't score a lot of points. Lowry has more low-scoring value. Terrence Ross could see a boost in playing time if San Antonio gets ahead big and early.
Sacramento vs. Denver (O/U 216, Den -3)
Wilson Chandler does very well in games in which the Nuggets score more than 110 points, which seems like a good bet given their implied point total of 109.5. Nikola Jokic also displays the same trend. But their value sharply declines if Denver has a low-scoring night. Danilo Gallinari has some value upside, but is better suited for low-scoring games. DeMarcus Cousins is a strong play with consistent value (although somewhat limited value upside, which is probably more a function of his cost), who tends to perform better in high-scoring affairs.
Miami @ Phoenix (O/U 210.5, Pho -3)
Rodney McGruder is an intriguing value play in a game that has a decent chance of being a high-scoring, fairly lopsided game. Goran Dragic's value increases as Miami's team point total increases, peaking around games in which Miami scores 110 points. I'm not particularly high on Devin Booker, as he is frequently overvalued. If the game stays relatively close and Phoenix scores big (110+ points), I like a pairing of Eric Bledsoe and either P.J. Tucker or Tyson Chandler, particularly Tucker and Bledsoe. All three players tend to be very productive on nights when Phoenix scores big, and Bledsoe correlates reasonably well with Tucker and Chandler (+0.37 and +0.24 respectively).
Memphis @ LA Lakers (O/U 206.5, Mem -3.5)
I like Mike Conley's upside more than Marc Gasol's upside.
Conley stands a better chance of eclipsing 7 fantasy points per $1K salary, but the risk with Conley as he is more frequently overvalued than Gasol (Conley's points/$1K distribution centers around 4, compared to Gasol's which centers around 6). One plus about Conley is that his minutes are fairly stable even in games in which the Grizzlies blow out their opponent. If the unlikely scenario of LA scoring huge (120+), D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle are two good guys to have. But in the more likely scenario of the Lakers scoring 100-110 points, Lou Williams is the Laker to own.