We're going to try a new format in an attempt to better organize and highlight some of the key players in daily NBA slates. Rather than organizing a discussion by game, I will organize by position and highlight some of the studs, values, and sleepers around the league at each position for a given day. Analysis will be roughly based on the same tools and resources in previous postings. I'll still list the day's games, their pre-game over/under and line for reference.
Boston @ Washington (O/U 217.5, Bos -1.5)
Chicago @ Orlando (O/U 203.5, Chi -2.5)
LA Clippers @ Philadelphia (O/U 203.5, LA -3.5)
San Antonio @ Toronto (O/U 206, SA -3)
Utah @ Denver (O/U 211.5, Den -2)
Minnesota @ Phoenix (O/U 215, Pho -1.5)
Kyle Lowry ($8,800) - With DeMar DeRozan out tonight and tomorrow, Lowry figures to be the Raptors top offensive option. DeRozan and Lowry have a small negative correlation (-0.18), suggesting that Lowry stands to benefit from DeRozan's absence to some degree. The Raptors' implied point total of 101.5 is pretty low, but that doesn't concern me for Lowry, who tends to have slightly better value in the 100-110 point range than 110-120 range. $8,800 is a little pricey for Lowry, but given tonight's modest slate of only 6 games and DeRozan's absence I like his chances of being worth it.
Kris Dunn ($4,900) - With Ricky Rubio likely to miss another game, Dunn could be a valuable play as the Timberwolves' starting PG. Dunn and Rubio have a strong negative correlation (-0.37). There isn't a whole lot of data on Kris Dunn as the starter, but on Sunday he came one assist and two rebounds short of a triple-double. There would appear to be good upside for Dunn, and his Timberwolves have one of the higher implied point totals (106.75) in a night where there are expected to be a number of low-scoring games around the league.
UPDATE: I'm now seeing Rubio as probable to play tonight, severely cutting into the potential value of Dunn.
Elfrid Payton ($6,400) - I don't love the matchup for Payton who typically does much better in high-scoring games.
But with injuries to D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, C.J. Wilcox, and Jodie Meeks, somebody has to play guard minutes for the Magic tonight, right? With some caution due to an unfavorable matchup, low implied point total (100.5), I think Payton could be a good play simply due to so many injuries around him.
Cory Joseph ($3,900) - While Kyle Lowry is the direct beneficiary of DeRozan's injury, I could see Cory Joseph benefitting as well, and he has proven in the past that he can be very productive if given enough minutes. Joseph and DeRozan also have a slight negative DKP correlation (-0.17).
Jimmy Butler ($9,000) - Butler simply by default. With other top SGs such as DeRozan and Avery Bradley out tonight, and given only a 6-game slate, Butler for only $9,000 (slightly above his salary norm) seems like a pretty good price. Butler also has good production in the 100-110 point range.
J.J. Redick ($5,100)/Austin Rivers ($5,900) - I like Redick at $5,100 more than Rivers at $5,900 given the Clippers' implied point total (103.5), but both figure to benefit from Chris Paul's absence.
Norman Powell ($3,400) - Simply due to DeMar DeRozan's absence. Powell has shown flashes of productivity when given more minutes. In games in which he played 29+ minutes he's averaging 16.75, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.25 assists. He has a moderate negative correlation with DeRozan (-0.34).
Gordon Hayward ($7,200) - $7,200 is a fantastic price for Hayward, especially given a 6-game slate and that top SF option Kawhi Leonard missed last nights' Spurs game and is questionable to play tonight. I think Hayward is a great play tonight for the price.
Jimmy Butler ($9,000) - See SG section. Butler's value could rise if Leonard doesn't play tonight.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,000) - Wiggins is one of the ultimate "benefits from team success" guys. His production rises so steeply with increasing Timberwolves' point totals.
The good: if Minnesota has a high-scoring game Wiggins is a good bet to be very productive. The bad: if the T-Wolves score low, Wiggins is at a high risk to be a bust. At 106.75, Minnesota is kind of in high-scoring limbo, but banking on the over could lead to a big night for Wiggins.
Norman Powell ($3,400)/Terrence Ross ($4,200) - See SG section. Powell and Ross both have SF & SG qualification. Both could benefit from the absence of DeRozan, Powell probably moreso than Ross.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500) - I don't love Towns' value tonight; $10,500 is a steep price to pay for Towns.
Towns' would benefit from Rubio being able to play, as he has a +0.31 DKP correlation with Rubio and a -0.18 correlation with backup/potential starter Kris Dunn. Other top PFs LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin could potentially struggle without their starting PGs Tony Parker and Chris Paul (Aldridge/Parker +0.33 correlation, Griffin/Paul +0.39 correlation).
Ersan Ilyasova ($6,000) - Ilyasova's production is actually better in low-scoring games, and with Joel Embiid out, Ilysova stands to be more of a primary scoring option for the Sixers. $6,000 isn't the best price for Ilyasova, but it isn't insanely high.
None/Nerlens Noel ($4,300) - There isn't any PF that I see as having good upside for a low budget. With Embiid ruled out, if Jahlil Okafor can't go for Philadelphia, Nerlens Noel becomes the next man up and could have a little upside.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500) - See PF section.
Marcin Gortat ($5,800) - $5,800 is a decent price for Gortat, who tends to be most productive around 110 Wizards' points (108 implied point total tonight).
Nerlens Noel ($4,300) - See PF section.