Toronto @ Charlotte (O/U 215, Cha -1.5)

Once again, Jeremy Lamb is listed as a game time decision.  Lamb's strong negative correlation with Nicolas Batum and Kemba Walker make them strong plays for tonight, although both have higher prices than usual (Walker $8,000, Batum $7,400) based on their salary distributions.

I don't mind Walker at $8,000, but $7,400 feels a little high for Batum to me.  On the Toronto side, there isn't much to separate Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan on for me.  The two have a -0.18 correlation, which isn't insanely strong, but there is some evidence that you'll need to pick one or the other, and pick correctly.  I like Lowry a little more from a pure production standpoint, as DeRozan tends to have better production if the Raptors can score between 110-120 points (106.25 implied points tonight), while Lowry is better when they are under 110.  But, there is much more depth in my opinion at the PG position tonight, perhaps adding to DeRozan's potential value if you don't want to spend on or play Harden or Butler at SG.

Milwaukee @ Orlando (O/U 211.5, Mil -3.5)

Giannis Antetokounmpo's production is pretty stable across Milwaukee point totals in the 90-115 range, and takes off as the Bucks approach 120; figures to be a strong play tonight, and to me is appropriately priced between Harden (less upside) and Curry (less risk).  $10,600 is a little on the pricey side for Giannis.  I think John Henson could be a good value play at C tonight.  His value is usually quite good around 110 Bucks' points, and if the Bucks can win by 5-10 points he also figures to be a solid play at only $3,500.  His DKP/$1K distribution suggests that he has nice 7-11 DKP/$1K potential.

I'm usually a big Malcolm Brogdon fan, but am a little less certain of him tonight as his value is really best if the Bucks can top 110 and blowout the Magic, which doesn't seem super likely given the over/under and opening line.  Even though both Jodie Meeks and Evan Fournier are out, I'd be hesitant to jump on C.J. Watson.  I think Elfrid Payton is the biggest beneficiary of the Magic's backcourt injuries, but I don't love him tonight in what isn't expected to be a high-scoring game.  Nikola Vucevic makes more sense given the Magic's implied point total of only 104.

 

Portland @ Philadelphia (O/U 210, Por -1.5)

I'm probably staying away from McCollum/Lillard tonight just on account of such a low over/under.  Kemba Walker and Jeff Teague have better matchups in my opinion than Lillard, and I think DeMar DeRozan's consistency for $900 more or Klay Thompson's upside for $800 less makes more sense than McCollum.  Mason Plumlee at $5,200 isn't a bad price at all for a guy who seems to be a pretty good bet to reach 26 points, and stands a decent chance to top 30.

Plumlee has a lot of spread and point total stability, meaning if the game goes low he isn't a huge risk to lose a ton of value, but if the game goes high he doesn't stand to benefit a lot from the Blazers' increased point total.

Chicago @ Atlanta (O/U 204.5, Atl -5)

Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap would figure to benefit from Mike Muscala and Tiago Splitter being out.  I like Howard a lot more tonight at $6,900 than I do Millsap at $7,500.  Howard tends to do better in low-scoring games, and based on his distribution seems much more likely to get to 35 DKP (5 DKP/$1K) than Millsap does to get to 37.5 DKP

I also think $4,500 is a very low price for Kent Bazemore tonight.

I don't think there is much to like on Chicago's side, as their implied point total is just so low.  Butler's value and production takes a hit in low-scoring, losing efforts.  Robin Lopez, who tends to be more productive in games in which the Bulls score fewer than 100 points, could be a cheap option at C, but his price ($4,500) isn't so favorable that I'm that crazy about him.

Sacramento @ Memphis (O/U 199.5, Mem -8)

I don't like DeMarcus Cousins tonight against the Grizzlies.  The game is just expected to bee too low-scoring.  Cousins actually does best in Kings' losing efforts, but his production drops off as the Kings score a low amount of points.  I'm probably avoiding Kings players altogether on account of such a low implied point total (95.5).  I usually like Mike Conley, and there is even more to like tonight as his production has a tendency to eclipse that of Marc Gasol if the Grizzlies can win by about 10 points.

But I don't love Conley's price tonight ($7,300).  It's not outrageously high for him, but it isn't particularly low (or even average).  I really like the potential value of JaMychal Green, who is only priced at $4,500 (average to slightly below-average) and seems to be a pretty good bet to score at least 25 DKP (5+ DKP/$1K) especially given Memphis' expected margin of victory.

Golden State @ Houston (O/U 238, GS -5.5)

James Harden should be a stud tonight.  I've been off the Montrezl Harrell bandwagon since Clint Capela returned, but I like Harrell's upside at only $4,900.  Add into the mix that forward PF Ryan Anderson is dealing with illness and could be either a scratch or limited in playing time, and I'm less concerned about Harrell's minutes.  On the Warriors' side, I think Steph Curry at $8,700 is a bargain, especially given such an expectedly high-scoring game.

His salary is usually closer to $8,000, and with an implied point total over 120, I'm surprised his salary isn't higher.  Kevin Durant is coming off a huge night, but his salary is well above his center (granted, SF is a thinner position tonight than PG), and his production tends to dip as the Warriors eclipse 120, while Curry's only increases.

Brooklyn @ New Orleans (O/U 221.5, NO -10)

I'm not a huge fan of any of the Nets' players tonight.  Brook Lopez at $6,800 feels a little high tonight, I'd rather roll with similarly priced centers such as Howard, Myles Turner, or Vucevic.  Sean Kilpatrick is a strong play when the Nets score a lot, but not when they get blown out.  Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a good play when they get blown out, but not if the score a lot.  I'm probably staying away from Nets' players, with maybe the exception of Joe Harris as a super cheap option.  On the Pelicans' side, Anthony Davis at $11,400 feel a little high, as he's usually priced closer to $11,000.

Although, in defense of Davis tonight, his production does tend to increase significantly as the Pelicans' point total increases.  E'Twuan Moore could be a super-cheap option at SG, his value tends to be highest as the Pelicans score around 110 points.  Same for Terrence Jones, who had a double-double against the Nets earlier this month, although $6,2000 sounds like a lot to pay for Jones tonight.

Utah @ Dallas (O/U 187, Uta -6)

I want nothing to do with Dallas' top players tonight in a game where their implied point total is only 90.5 points (!!!).  The only players I'd consider are either of Dallas' backup post players: Salah Mejri ($3,000) or Dwight Powell ($3,100).  With Bogut injured and and the Mavericks on the second half of a back to back, someone will have to spell Dirk Nowitzki, I think Mejri stands to get more minutes, Powell can be expected to be more efficient with his minutes.  Gordon Hayward shouldn't be ruled out given a low implied point total.  He actually tends to be more productive in the 90-100 point range than the 100-110 point range.  Rudy Gobert is has good production stability in low-scoring games, but doesn't tend to gain that much value if the Jazz' point total rises.  This notion, coupled with a slightly inflated price ($7,100) does't have me ecstatic about Gobert.

Since his return from injury, George Hill hasn't been a great value, and I think his value should be pretty low tonight given a low Jazz' implied point total.

Indiana @ LA Lakers (O/U 220, Ind -3.5)

I usually like Teague, but $7,900 is a huge price tag for Jeff Teague (probably a response to his 3 double-doubles in last five games).

I'm all for riding a hot hand, but Teague's price is so high, I have serious doubts of his value tonight.  Paul George at $7,800 feels much more reasonable, and his production increases linearly as the Pacers' point total increases.  Myles Turner ($6,900) has stability through low-high point ranges, and his production really takes off as the Pacers approach 120 points.  He is a good high upside play tonight, and his price doesn't seem overly high.  Julius Randle figures to be a strong play, and his fantasy production steeply increases with the Lakers' point total in the 110-120 point range.

 

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