Toronto @ Brooklyn (O/U 227, Tor -11.5)
I like Terrence Ross and Cory Joseph as low-budget options in this game that is likely to be high scoring and lopsided. Ross and Joseph tend to have really good value in both scenarios.
Ross' and Joseph's DKP/$1K curves are the highest among Toronto players' curves around 120 points (implied point total of 120.25) and also in Raptors' blowout victories. There isn't much correlation benefit to playing both Ross and Joseph (+0.01). Joseph's DKP/$1K distribution tends to sit in the 5-10 range more frequently than Ross', but Ross has more 10+ DKP/$1K upside. I like Joseph a little more than Ross, as he is $200 cheaper and has more stable minutes, but Ross could be a good high risk-high reward play. Lowry and DeRozan figure to be strong plays as they both have good value around spreads of -10. Neither Lowry nor DeRozan have great correlation with either Ross or Joseph, the highest being DeRozan/Ross at +0.11. I don't love any of the Nets' players tonight. Brook Lopez could should have decent value if the game stays within 10 points, but his value really drops off as the Nets' margin of defeat increases. Sean Kilpatrick is a high-upside play in high-scoring Nets' games but he tends to have low value if the Nets' lose by double digits. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson tends to have increased value in double digit Nets' losses, but doesn't produce well in high-scoring games.
Houston @ Miami (O/U 222, Hou -7.5)
The most expensive man of the night, James Harden figures to be a good play if you can afford him. He has pretty stable value across a wide range of spreads, and his value and production tend to steadily increase as the Rockets' point total increases. Keep an eye on Clint Capela, who might play tonight for the first time since December 17. I wouldn't play Capela even if he does play as his minutes will likely be limited, but his status has a huge impact on the playability of Montrezl Harrell (who I like as a correlated pair with Harden). If Capela plays I am not high on Harrell, but if he doesn't Harrell could be a solid play if the game is high-scoring and not close. I like shooters Ryan Anderson and Patrick Beverly if the game is high-scoring, Anderson a little better suited for a close game, Beverly better suited for a blowout Rockets' victory. James Johnson is a Heat player with a great DKP/$1K distribution and he tends to be most valuable in high-scoring games.
My only concern with Johnson is that he has been so undervalued by DraftKings, and they are starting to catch up in pricing him, as he is priced at $6,100 tonight, which is very high compared to his past pricing.
Dallas @ Chicago (O/U 196, Chi -5.5)
Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade would figure to be strong plays tonight, especially if the Bulls can approach 110 points. Butler tends to have better value than Wade in winning efforts. Wade's value doesn't fall off a ton in winning efforts, but I think he has less upside as Chicago is expected win. Wade has never been worth more than 7 DKP/$1K in a Bulls win. If I had to pick a Dallas player, Wes Matthews stands a good chance to have nice value. He has pretty stable value through the 90-105 point range and he doesn't experience a ton of diminishing value if the Mavericks can keep the game within 10 points.
Minnesota @ San Antonio (O/U 199.5, SA -11.5)
Karl-Antony Towns figures to be a strong play, as he doesn't lose a ton of value even if the Timberwolves get blown out. I like Zach LaVine at only $6,000, as his value tends to peak around game spreads of +11, and his price for tonight isn't particularly high given his salary distribution. I would avoid Andrew Wiggins, whose value tends to plummet in low-scoring, blowout Minnesota losses. On the San Antonio side, I really like the pair of Tony Parker and Pau Gasol, who both tend to have good value around 5-20 point Spurs' victories.
Gasol and Parker also have a great +0.43 DKP correlation. Gasol also tends to have nice value for the projected scoring range of the Spurs (105.5 implied points), while Parker has good value upside if the Spurs go over 105.
I'm probably staying away from Kawhi Leonard tonight, as he is one of the most expensive players tonight and his value doesn't really take off unless the game is really high-scoring and the Spurs win huge.
Denver @ LA Lakers (O/U 227.5, LA -1)
Wilson Chandler and Nikola Jokic are the two guys to own on Denver in this expected high-scoring game. I think both make for solid plays tonight, but at $1,400 less than Jokic, I like Chandler's upside.
On the Lakers' side, I really like the potential value of low-budget guards Nick Young and Lou Williams, who tend to have nice value in games in which the Lakers score 110-120 points and which are close. Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell could be strong plays if the Lakers top 120 points.