New York @ Philadelphia (O/U 211, NY -2.5)
Carmelo Anthony or Kristaps Porzingis make for strong plays tonight, as their production increases with the Knicks point total through the 95-115 point range, and they tend to be most productive in games that or close or the Knicks win.
The two could also make for a nice pair with a +0.37 correlation. I don't like Derrick Rose, Justin Holliday, Brandon Jennings, or Courtney Lee as their production bottoms out around 110 Knicks' points. Joakim Noah could be an interesting play if this game turns into a shootout, as his production is pretty stable through the 95-105 point range, but really begins to take off as the Knicks approach 120 points. He, like Porzingis and Anthony, is at his best in close Knicks' victories. As I've mentioned before, Ersan Ilyasova is better suited for low-scoring games. In a game that has some high-scoring potential, Joel Embiid figures to be the most productive 76er tonight. Dario Saric and Robert Covington are also 76ers who I think could be nice value plays if the game stays close and ends up being high-scoring.
Washington @ Boston (O/U 217, Bos -5.5)
Isaiah Thomas seems like a good guy ride in a game that is expected to be pretty high-scoring, especially if it stays close. Although he tends to do better in low-scoring games, Al Horford has a really nice DKP/$1K distribution that I think makes him a pretty solid option most nights.
Jae Crowder and Kelly Olynyk (Olynyk in particular in my opinion) are two guys that stand to really benefit from a high-scoring blowout victory. If you are inclined to play that scenario, they could be nice value plays. John Wall is a solid play tonight but has limited value upside. Bradley Beal on the other hand has nice value upside, but also is at a higher risk of having a low-value game. Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat are two mid-level guys who tend to have good production in high-scoring losing efforts, so I think either could be a nice play tonight with good upside. Porter with more upside but more risk, Gortat less upside but less risk.
Memphis @ Oklahoma City (O/U 203.5, OKC -5.5)
Memphis has a low implied point total of 99. In low-scoring affairs, Marc Gasol usually has better value than Mike Conley, whose value begins to take off as the Grizzlies top 100. Additionally, Gasol's value tends to be higher in losing efforts, while Conley's tends to be higher in winning efforts. Because of this, I'd rate Gasol over Conley tonight, although Conley does have some upside if the game is high-scoring and the Grizzlies can keep it close or even win. Zach Randolph makes for a solid low-risk, low-reward play tonight. Russel Westbrook as usual figures to be a strong play tonight. I like the upside of Enes Kanter tonight, who tends to have really nice value in Thunder wins and has increasing value as the Thunder score more points in the 100-115 point range.
Due to correlation numbers (and a little bit of the pre-game line and over/under), Andre Roberson and Victor Oladipo could be nice pairs with Westbrook.
Houston @ Minnesota (O/U 219, Hou -4)
I missed that Eric Gordon was a scratch from last night's Rockets/Hornets game; sorry about that. But with Gordon again out for the Rockets, there's not much to dislike about James Harden tonight. I think Montrezl Harrell continues to be a good complement to Harden. Also due to Gordon's absence, I think Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, or Patrick Beverly could be good value plays tonight. If I had to rank these three players I'd probably go Beverly, Anderson, Ariza. On the Minnesota side, Karl-Anthony Townes figures to be a solid play. I like Andrew Wiggins' value upside for this game, as it figures to be high-scoring, a scenario in which Wiggins' really excels.
Wiggins tends to be more productive in games that Minnesota wins, but between the Rockets coming off a competitive game last night against Charlotte and Houston's injury problems, I think a Timberwolves' win or at the very least a competitive game is likely.
Orlando @ LA Clippers (O/U 208.5, LAC -10.5)
Relative to the spread, the Clippers' top players (Chris Paul, J.J. Reddick, DeAndre Jordan, Austin Rivers) all tend to have pretty equally good value in the 0 to -20 range. If there is anyone who has increasing value as the game becomes more lopsided it's Austin Rivers, but his value tends to dip as the Clippers' point total increases. I personally like the combination of Paul, Reddick, and Jordan, who have increasing value as the Clippers point total rises above 110. Marreese Speights could be a good play if the game becomes a huge and high-scoring blowout, as he tends to be the most valuable Clipper (in terms of DKP/$1K) as the spread approaches -20 and the Clippers' point total approaches 120. I don't particularly like an Magic players, as almost all of them (except for Evan Fournier) display decreasing value in blowout losses.
Cleveland @ Portland (O/U 221, Cle -3.5)
As probably my least favorite team to project, I think Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are a toss up as to which is more desirable. From a value perspective, I'm more intrigued by Mason Plumlee tonight, whose value is a little more stable in losing efforts. Lillard and McCollum have fairly steep declines in value as the Blazers' margin of defeat increases. Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love all would appear to be solid plays tonight. I think Love would stand to benefit the most from the game being high-scoring.