Welcome back to our weekly Tout Ranking analysis. This week we will be looking at the tout projections for Week 5 of the NFL season. As a reminder, we rank 6 sites, numberfire.com, swishanalytics.com, fantasylabs.com, fantasyinsiders.com, fantasyalarm.com, and 4for4.com. The rankings for this week are as follows:

 

4for4 fantasyalarm fantasyinsiders fantasylabs numberfire swishanalytics
MSE 52.554 56.553 49.114 51.283 56.314 51.594
MAE 5.617 5.551 5.030 5.560 5.254 5.226
ME -0.240 -1.424 -1.535 -0.199 -2.579 -1.198
RS 0.447 0.390 0.398 0.527 0.288 0.337

 

The results for this week show fantasylabs as the clear leader. They had the overall lowest mean error and highest RS values but a large margin. Most sites seriously under projected the field this week, but since we know that fantasylabs is consistently higher than the field, they were very accurate this week. The other top tout this week was 4for4, which did not make very many terrible predictions, hence their low MSE and MAE.

The top under projected players this week were T.Y. Hilton, Ezekiel Elliot, Sammie Coates, Martellus Bennett, and Jeremy Kerley. All of these players scored around the thirty point range, and most were not projected over 20. A common theme is that receiving players are often the players with the highest variance, and therefore can come across as under projected.

The season long aggregate is as follows:

 

4for4 fantasyalarm fantasyinsiders fantasylabs numberfire swishanalytics
MSE 48.985 52.668 40.182 57.751 43.827 45.158
MAE 5.088 5.417 4.343 5.698 4.494 4.680
ME 0.184 0.013 -0.430 0.969 -1.067 -0.246
RS 0.580 0.608 0.567 0.647 0.550 0.528


The best season long tout has probably been fantasyalarm, with startlingly accurate ME. Come back next week for Week 6 Tout Rankings.