In this blog, we’ll look at a small slice of Week 2 action to look at a new ratio that I’ll call FP/CPP. This is the ratio of a team’s Expected Fantasy Point Production to the Cost of that team’s Primary Producers.
For example, in the most interesting game with respect to fantasy this weekend, the Giants are expected to beat the Saints by five points in a game with an over-under of 53. The implied point total of the Giants is 29, while the implied point total of the Saints is 24.
Recall from our previous post that Fantasy Points per Actual Point Scored differs tremendously by team. The ratio of fantasy points to actual points for a team is very closely related to the ratio of passing yards/rushing yards for this team.
Both the Saints and the Giants have a high ratio of passing yards to rushing yards. The Saints have the highest ratio of passing yards to rushing yards in the NFL, and they have the seventh highest average points per game. In 2015, this combo meant that the Saints were the led the NFL in fantasy points per game.
The ratio of fantasy points to actual points for the Saints in 2015 was 4.35, while the ratio for the Giants was 3.77. Our rough expectation for this weekend, therefore, is that the Saints will score 104.4 total fantasy points (24 points x 4.35 fantasy points per actual point), while the Giants will score 109.33 total fantasy points (29 points x 3.77 fantasy points per actual point).
In computing the FP/CPP ratio, some judgment is required in defining the Primary Producers.
I will say that the Primary Producers for the Saints are: Brees (DK price $8200), Ingram ($6200), Cooks ($8000), Snead ($5800), Thomas ($4000), and Fleener ($3900). The CPP (total cost of primary producers) for the Saints is $36,100.
The Primary Producers for the Giants are: Manning ($7600), Vereen ($3800), Jennings ($5600), Beckham ($9500), Shepard ($5200), Donnell ($2900), and Tye ($2900). The CPP for the Giants is $37,500.
The FP/CPP for the Saints is .00289, while the same ratio for the Giants is .00292.
This analysis suggests that the Saints and the Giants are comparably priced in terms of expected fantasy point production. A good cash game strategy is to focus on games with a high ratio of FP/CPP. Once the highest FP/CPP teams are found, it is a reasonable strategy in cash games to take many players from the same team; this strategy essentially captures equity while reducing variance.
In tournaments, one should focus on teams with the highest ratio of FP/CPP while maintaining a bias towards high over-under games. Rightward skew in the distribution of points per game will imply an even greater rightward skew in the distribution of fantasy points per game.
For large field tournaments, a good strategy is to find high FP/CPP games that have many different primary producers (such as the Giants this week). One should not, in my view, do too much work in trying to predict precisely where the fantasy production will come from, but rather pick five or six reasonable possibilities and build tournament line-ups around each of these possibilities. My favorite options this week are:
1) Jennings only
2) Donnell only
3) Tye only
4) Vereen only
5) Manning and Beckham
6) Manning and Shepard