Thanks for keeping up with the Advanced Sports Analytics Tout Ranking system. Today we are releasing our Week 2 rankings. We are sticking with the same Touts this week, but probably expanding our selection in the future. To reiterate, we are tracking numberfire.com, swishanalytics.com, fantasylabs.com, fantasyinsiders.com, fantasyalarm.com, and 4for4.com. The results for week 2 were as follows:

4for4 fantasyalarm fantasyinsiders fantasylabs numberfire swishanalytics
MSE 55.785 54.242 48.113 62.168 48.887 49.569
MAE 5.489 5.553 4.909 5.884 4.877 4.997
ME 0.224 0.341 -0.896 1.424 -1.868 -0.413
RS 0.357 0.4514 0.351 0.419 0.321 0.313

 

If you would like a bit more on our methodology, take a look at our Projection Rankings post from week 1 here.

The results from this week are very interesting - the Touts performed much worse than they did in the first week. Upon review, it seems that the first week went very chalk and this week did not.  Numberfire, one of our top performing sites for week one under-projected players by almost 2 points this week with a measly 0.321 RS value. Additionally, fantasylabs overprojected again this week and had some serious large errors as shown by the 62 MSE.

On the other side of the spectrum, fantasyalarm had a great week with a .45 RS, much higher than the other Touts. They also seemed to have a good handle on the total number of fantasy points scored this week with a relatively low ME.  Additionally, 4for4 seemed to have good showing, with low errors for MSE, MAE, and ME.

We can also look at the players that were most improperly projected. These tend to be WR’s who have low expected value but really high variance. This list includes players such as Stefon Diggs, Kelvin Benjamin, Travis Benjamin and Corey Coleman. These players scored nearly double their projected points, vastly increasing these sites error values.

We also have the aggregate data from the first two weeks of the NFL season below:

4for4 fantasyalarm fantasyinsiders fantasylabs numberfire swishanalytics
MSE 48.470 51.986 38.998 58.938 42.015 44.227
MAE 5.012083333 5.394 4.252 5.724 4.384 4.600
ME 0.245416667 0.265 -0.283 1.183 -0.847 -0.108
RS 0.579 0.619 0.570 0.647 0.564 0.532

A few notes:  it seems that fantasyinsiders and swishanalytics have probably held up the best over the past two weeks. There is an interesting phenomenon occurring though, some of the sites with high overall error by the first three metrics also have very strong RS. This could suggest that different sites are trying to minimize different values. Regardless, as more weeks pass, we will get a better idea of what is going on with these sites. Check back next week for another update on the Advanced Sports Analytics Tout Rankings.