Fantasy sports and sports analytics are exploding. The analytics revolution first chronicled by Moneyball was far from a passing trend; if anything, it appears to be accelerating. Subscription websites (such as this one) dedicated to sports analytics numbers in the hundreds. So why does the world need another one?
Advanced Sports Analytics differs from exiting sports analytics sites in three ways. First, we make no pretense of trying to make you money. We are not touts in the sense that we aim to make you richer. One of the consequences of the analytics revolution is that sports markets have become more competitive than ever before, while the house take has either stayed the same (in the case of betting markets) or gone up (in the case of fantasy sports). For most, making a living in sports is a pipe dream. At Advanced Sports Analytics, we view any type of wagering on sports as an entertainment product, and try to align our tone accordingly.
Second, we introduce two innovations to the world of fantasy sports. Advanced Sports Analytics seeks to be the leading site in two areas: rankings of daily fantasy sports players, and rankings/analysis of fantasy sports touts.
The world of sports touts is lacking a systematic database that relates tout predictions of player performance to actual outcomes. Good prediction is all about feedback, and optimizing predictions is all about intelligently refining one’s methodology in the face of new evidence. With the NFL season quickly approaching, it is worth noting that this process of feedback and self criticism is almost nonexistent in the world of NFL toutdom. For every hundred hours expended on making predictions about the upcoming Sunday’s slate of games, perhaps an hour or two is spent systematically assessing how those predictions stacked up to reality. Every Tuesday morning, the slate is wiped clean, and the emphasis of the tout world shifts immediately to the upcoming week’s slate of games. At Advanced Sports Analytics we seek to change that, by providing the most systematic database of tout predictions available. As part of our analysis of this database, we will rank the accuracy of these touts and advise subscribers on how best to weight predictions based on their historic accuracy.
Our interest in DFS player rankings stems from the fact that fantasy sports is, at core, an ego sport, and therefore some form of DFS player rankings should be central to the world of daily fantasy sports. Also, in theory, if a true list of fantasy sports ability exists, one can learn quickly by analyzing the line-up construction of the top-ranked DFS players. Our method of ranking DFS players is unique in that it is not subjective, nor is it mostly a function of volume or actual results. Rather, we have a proprietary algorithm, shown below, that awards DFS players who systematically chose sports participants who perform well despite being sparsely owned.
Low-owned players who score well demonstrate skill – the ability to see something that few others did. Low-owned players who score poorly demonstrate a lack of skill – a choice that was so obviously bad that few others picked him. Highly owned players are generally the consensus – everyone thought along the same lines, and there was really no differentiating skill involved. While other systems benefit high volume players, awarding points for lineups that perform well, our system measures overall skill by analyzing the process of lineup construction, not just the results.